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Introduction

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean.

Warming and rising sea levels are expected to continue for millennia, even if the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stabilizes. This effect is explained by the high heat capacity of the oceans. In addition to rising sea levels, rising global temperatures will also lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation. As a result, natural disasters such as floods, droughts, hurricanes and others may become more frequent, agricultural yields will decrease, and many species will disappear. Warming is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of such events. Some researchers believe that global warming is a myth, some scientists reject the possibility of human influence on this process and, finally, there are those who do not deny the fact of warming and admit its anthropogenic nature, but do not agree that the most dangerous of the impacts climate impacts are industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Relevance: The subsequent life of humanity is connected with climate change and therefore it is better to study this phenomenon and be prepared for it, try to prevent it, than to live indifferently and wait for the inevitable end.

Purpose of the work: to show the essence of climate change on Earth and determine its causes. Tasks:

1) Study the phenomenon of climate change.

2) Analyze the reasons for this phenomenon.

3) Based on different theories, formulate why global warming is dangerous for humanity.

4) Talk about how to slow down climate change

Causes of climate change on Earth

First, let's talk about the causes of climate change and the factors influencing its change. There are anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic factors, i.e. related to human activity and, on the contrary, independent of you and me. There are various anthropogenic factors influencing climate. Among them are plate tectonics, volcanism, the influence of solar radiation, and so on.

According to the theory of plate tectonics, the Earth's continents move along the surface at a speed of several centimeters per year. This will continue to happen, causing the plates to continue to move and collide. Currently, the continents of North and South America are moving west of Africa and Europe. Researchers are considering several scenarios for the development of events in the future. These geodynamic patterns can be distinguished by subduction flow, in which oceanic crust moves beneath the continent. In the introverted model, the younger, inland Atlantic undergoes subduction and the current movement of the Americas reverses. In the extraversion model, the older, outer Pacific Ocean undergoes subduction, so the Americas move toward East Asia.

Introversion

In this scenario, in 50 million years, the Mediterranean Sea could disappear, and the collision of Europe and Africa will create a long mountain range stretching all the way to the Persian Gulf. Australia will merge with Indonesia, and Baja California will slide north along the coast. New subduction zones may appear off the eastern coasts of North and South America, and mountain ranges will form along their coasts. In the south of the planet, the movement of Antarctica to the north will cause the entire ice sheet to melt. This, along with the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will raise average sea levels by 90 meters. Flooding of continents will lead to climate change.

As this scenario unfolds, in 100 million years the spread of the continents will reach its maximum point and they will begin to merge. In 250 million years, North America will collide with Africa, and South America will wrap around the southern tip of Africa. The result would be the formation of a new supercontinent (sometimes called Pangea Ultima) and an ocean extending over half the planet. The Antarctic continent will completely change directions and return to the South Pole with the formation of a new ice sheet.

Extraversion

The closing of the Pacific Ocean will be completed in 350 million years. This will mark the end of the current super continental cycle, in which continents separate and then return to each other approximately every 400-500 million years. After the creation of a supercontinent, the plates may enter a period of inactivity as the rate of subduction drops by an order of magnitude. This period of stability could lead to an increase in mantle temperature of 30-100K every 100 million years, which is the minimum lifetime of past supercontinents. And, as a result, volcanic activity may increase.

Orthoversion

According to this theory, the continents in the future will merge into a single continent in the Arctic Ocean and North America will become the center of the new supercontinent. According to Mitchell and his colleagues, Asia will move towards North America, with which it will eventually connect. They will also be joined by modern Greenland, which will become part of the supercontinent.

Supercontinent

The formation of a supercontinent can significantly affect the environment. The collision of plates will lead to the formation of mountains, thereby significantly changing weather conditions. Sea levels may fall due to increased glaciation. The rate of surface erosion may increase, resulting in an increased rate at which organic material is consumed. The formation of a supercontinent could lead to a decrease in global temperatures and an increase in atmospheric oxygen concentrations. These changes may lead to faster biological evolution as new niches emerge. This, in turn, could affect the climate and lead to further drops in temperature.

Volcanism

The most noticeable climatic effects of eruptions affect changes in surface air temperature and the formation of meteoric precipitation, which most fully characterize climate-forming processes.

Temperature effect. Volcanic ash released into the atmosphere during explosive eruptions reflects solar radiation, lowering the air temperature at the Earth's surface. While the persistence of fine dust in the atmosphere from a volcanic-type eruption is typically measured in weeks and months, volatiles such as SO2 can remain in the upper atmosphere for several years. Small particles of silicate dust and sulfur aerosol, concentrating in the stratosphere, increase the optical thickness of the aerosol layer, which leads to a decrease in temperature on the Earth's surface.

As a result of the eruptions of volcanoes Agung (Bali Island, 1963) and St. Helens (USA, 1980), the observed maximum decrease in the Earth's surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was less than 0.1 °C. However, for larger eruptions, such as Tambora Volcano (Indonesia, 1815), it is quite possible for the temperature to drop by 0.5 °C or more, since the amount of solar radiation is reduced by about a quarter.

When considering the possible influence on climate of eruptions, primarily of low-latitude volcanoes, or summer eruptions at moderate or high latitudes, it is necessary to take into account the type of volcanic material. Otherwise, this may lead to a multiple overestimation of the thermal effect. Thus, during explosive eruptions with a dacite type of magma (for example, Volcano St. Helens), the specific contribution to the formation of H2SO4 aerosols was almost 6 times less than during the Krakatoa eruption, when about 10 km3 of andesitic magma was ejected and approximately 50 million . tons of H2SO4 aerosols. In terms of the effect of air pollution, this corresponds to the explosion of bombs with a total power of 500 Mt and, according to this, should have significant consequences for the regional climate.

The role of volcanic activity in the formation of precipitation

Since the most significant change in the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere is determined by volcanic activity, after an eruption and rapid washout of tropospheric volcanic impurities, one can expect prolonged precipitation from the lower layers of the stratosphere with relatively low isotope ratios of oxygen and deuterium (heavy hydrogen) and low “primary” carbon content. If this assumption is true, then some “cold” oscillations in the paleotemperature curve are understandable, based on experimental studies of polar ice cores, which coincide in time with a decrease in the concentration of “atmospheric” CO2.

This partly “explains” the cooling in the Younger Dryas, which manifested itself most clearly in the North Atlantic basin approximately 11-10 thousand years ago. The onset of this cooling could have been initiated by a sharp increase in volcanic activity in the period 14-10.5 thousand years ago, which was reflected in a multiple increase in the concentration of volcanogenic chlorine and sulfates in Greenland ice cores.

Based on the above, we can draw a preliminary conclusion that volcanic activity, in addition to the direct impact on the climate, manifests itself in the simulation of “additional” cooling due to the increased amount of snow precipitation.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change

The greenhouse effect is the delay of the planet's thermal radiation by the Earth's atmosphere. Any of us has observed this phenomenon: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The air we breathe is essential to our life in many ways. Without our atmosphere, the average temperature on Earth would be about -18 C instead of today's 15 C. This change did not happen just like that, but due to the spread of the following greenhouse gases:

water vapor

Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide

Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons)

Sulfur hexafluoride - All the sunlight that reaches the Earth causes the Earth to emit infrared waves like a giant radiator.

Because of the atmosphere, however, only some of this heat is directly returned to space. The remainder is retained in the lower layers of the atmosphere, which contain a number of gases - water vapor, CO2, methane and others - that collect outgoing infrared radiation. As soon as these gases heat up, some of the heat they accumulated is released back to the earth's surface. In general, this process is called the greenhouse effect, the main reason for which is the excess content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more heat reflected by the earth's surface will be retained. Since greenhouse gases do not prevent the flow of solar energy, the temperature at the earth's surface will increase.

As temperatures rise, the evaporation of water from oceans, lakes, rivers, etc. will increase. Since warmer air can hold more water vapor, this creates a powerful feedback effect: the warmer it gets, the higher the water vapor content in the air, which in turn increases the greenhouse effect.

Human activity has little effect on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. But we emit other greenhouse gases, which makes the greenhouse effect more and more intense.

If current rates continue, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will double pre-industrial levels by 2060 and quadruple by the end of the century. This is very concerning because the life cycle of CO2 in the atmosphere is over a hundred years, compared to the eight-day cycle of water vapor.

Cement industry

Cement production is inextricably linked with increased environmental pollution due to the resulting carbon dioxide emissions. Cement companies account for 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions, which is the main cause of global warming. Cement has no potential for cost-effective recycling, and every new road and building requires cement.

In addition, benefits provided to “green” production can also increase environmental pollution. The European Union provides subsidies to Western companies that buy outdated cement plants in poor countries and modernize them using green technology. But even the greenest technology can reduce carbon emissions by only 20 percent. Therefore, when Western companies acquire Eastern plants, the amount of emissions per ton of cement produced decreases. But, as a rule, the volume of cement production increases many times, and, accordingly, the overall degree of pollution increases. The European Union effectively limits production for European cement producers in their own countries by capping maximum annual emissions allowed. But even a sharp reduction may not be enough to stop overall emissions from cement production from rising.

Aerosols

Ozone is a gas that occurs naturally in the Earth's atmosphere and is concentrated mainly in the ozone layer, which is located 10-40 km above the Earth's surface in the stratosphere. In the atmosphere, aerosol pollution is perceived in the form of smoke and fog. Based on their origin, aerosols are divided into natural and artificial. The first ones arise in natural conditions without human intervention. They enter the troposphere (less often into the stratosphere) during volcanic eruptions, the combustion of meteorites, during dust storms that lift soil and rock particles from the earth's surface, as well as during forest and steppe fires. During volcanic eruptions, black storms or fires, huge dust clouds are formed, which often spread over thousands of kilometers. Storm winds throw droplets of sea water from the crests of waves, saturated with salts of chlorides and sulfates, which are deposited both on the water surface and on land. The main sources of artificial aerosol air pollution are thermal power plants that consume coal with high ash content, processing plants, metallurgical, cement, magnesite and soot factories.

Land use

In natural areas of the globe, soils, vegetation and climate are closely interrelated. Heat and moisture determine the nature and pace of chemical, physical and biological processes that change rocks on slopes of varying steepness and create a huge variety of soils. It is quite possible that the construction of new roads and cities on the site of fields and forests plays no less a role in global warming than the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and the resulting greenhouse effect.

The fact that irrational land use was to blame for the cataclysms that shook the countries of Western and Central Europe in the summer of 2002 began to be discussed almost immediately after the water level in European rivers began to decline.

According to researchers, over the past three hundred years it has been human agricultural activity that has had the greatest impact on climate processes. Even more than the greenhouse effect.

In particular, it has been proven that if the rain forest is cut down in a given area and cereal crops are planted in the “freed up” area, then one can expect a decrease in the level of water evaporation and, as a result, an increase in the average daily temperature. On the other hand, irrigation of arable land leads to an increase in humidity, a drop in average temperature and an increase in precipitation in this region.

Trees planted in regions famous for their snowfall reduce the reflectivity of solar rays and, naturally, increase the average daily temperature, even though they reduce the concentration of CO2 due to photosynthesis. Again, new forests increase relative humidity levels in a given region and increase the greenhouse effect. The anthropogenic impact is most pronounced in the tropics.

Possible global climate change scenarios

Scenario 1 - global warming will occur gradually.

The Earth is a very large and complex system, consisting of a large number of interconnected structural components. The planet has a moving atmosphere, the movement of air masses of which distributes thermal energy across the latitudes of the planet; on Earth there is a huge accumulator of heat and gases - the World Ocean (the ocean accumulates 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere). Changes in such a complex system cannot occur quickly. Centuries and millennia will pass before any significant climate change can be judged.

Scenario 2 - global warming will occur relatively quickly.

The most “popular” scenario at present. According to various estimates, over the past hundred years the average temperature on our planet has increased by 0.5-1°C, the concentration of CO2 has increased by 20-24%, and methane by 100%. In the future, these processes will continue further and by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase from 1.1 to 6.4 ° C, compared to 1990 (according to IPCC forecasts from 1.4 to 5.8 ° C). Further melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice could accelerate global warming due to changes in the planet's albedo. According to some scientists, only the ice caps of the planet, due to the reflection of solar radiation, cool our Earth by 2°C, and the ice covering the surface of the ocean significantly slows down the processes of heat exchange between the relatively warm ocean waters and the colder surface layer of the atmosphere. In addition, there is practically no main greenhouse gas - water vapor - above the ice caps, since it is frozen out.

Global warming will be accompanied by rising sea levels. From 1995 to 2005, the level of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm, instead of the predicted 2 cm. If the level of the World Ocean continues to rise at the same speed, then by the end of the 21st century the total rise in its level will be 30 - 50 cm, which will cause partial flooding of many coastal areas, especially the populous coast of Asia. It should be remembered that about 100 million people on Earth live at an altitude of less than 88 centimeters above sea level. In addition to rising sea levels, global warming affects the strength of winds and the distribution of precipitation on the planet. As a result, the frequency and scale of various natural disasters (storms, hurricanes, droughts, floods) on the planet will increase.

Currently, 2% of all land is suffering from drought; according to some scientists, by 2050, up to 10% of all continental lands will be affected by drought. In addition, the distribution of precipitation between seasons will change.

Scenario 3 - Global warming in some parts of the Earth will be replaced by short-term cooling

It is known that one of the factors in the occurrence of ocean currents is the temperature difference between Arctic and tropical waters. The melting of polar ice contributes to an increase in the temperature of Arctic waters, and therefore causes a decrease in the temperature difference between tropical and Arctic waters, which inevitably will lead to a slowdown in currents in the future.

One of the most famous warm currents is the Gulf Stream, thanks to which in many Northern European countries the average annual temperature is 10 degrees higher than in other similar climatic zones of the Earth. It is clear that stopping this oceanic heat conveyor will greatly affect the Earth's climate. Already, the Gulf Stream has become weaker by 30% compared to 1957. Mathematical modeling has shown that in order to completely stop the Gulf Stream, a temperature increase of 2-2.5 degrees will be enough. Currently, North Atlantic temperatures have already warmed 0.2 degrees compared to the 70s. If the Gulf Stream stops, the average annual temperature in Europe will drop by 1 degree by 2010, and after 2010 the average annual temperature will continue to rise further. Other mathematical models “promise” more severe cooling in Europe.

According to these mathematical calculations, a complete stop of the Gulf Stream will occur in 20 years, as a result of which the climate of Northern Europe, Ireland, Iceland and Great Britain may become 4-6 degrees colder than the present, rains will increase and storms will become more frequent. The cold snap will also affect the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and the north of European Russia. After 2020-2030, warming in Europe will resume according to scenario No. 2.

Scenario 4 - Global warming will be replaced by global cooling

Stopping the Gulf Stream and other ocean streams will cause global warming on Earth and the onset of the next ice age.

Scenario 5 - Greenhouse disaster

A greenhouse catastrophe is the most “unpleasant” scenario for the development of global warming processes. The author of the theory is our scientist A.V. Karnaukhov, its essence is as follows. An increase in the average annual temperature on Earth, due to an increase in the content of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, will cause the transition of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere, and will also provoke the decomposition of sedimentary carbonate rocks with the additional release of carbon dioxide, which, in turn, will raise the temperature on Earth even higher, which will entail further decomposition of carbonates lying in the deeper layers of the earth's crust (the ocean contains 60 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere, and the earth's crust contains almost 50,000 times more). Glaciers will melt rapidly, reducing the Earth's albedo. Such a rapid increase in temperature will contribute to the intensive flow of methane from melting permafrost, and an increase in temperature to 1.4-5.8 ° C by the end of the century will contribute to the decomposition of methane hydrates (icey compounds of water and methane), concentrated mainly in cold places on the Earth.

To better imagine what will happen to the Earth, it is best to pay attention to our neighbor in the solar system - the planet Venus. With the same atmospheric parameters as on Earth, the temperature on Venus should be only 60°C higher than Earth’s (Venus is closer than Earth to the Sun), i.e. be around 75°C, but in reality the temperature on Venus is almost 500°C. Most of the carbonate and methane-containing compounds on Venus were destroyed long ago, releasing carbon dioxide and methane. Currently, the atmosphere of Venus consists of 98% CO2, which leads to an increase in the temperature of the planet by almost 400 ° C.

If global warming follows the same scenario as on Venus, then the temperature of the surface layers of the atmosphere on Earth could reach 150 degrees. An increase in the Earth's temperature even by 50°C will put an end to human civilization, and an increase in temperature by 150°C will cause the death of almost all living organisms on the planet.

According to Karnaukhov’s optimistic scenario, if the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere remains at the same level, then the temperature on Earth will reach 50°C in 300 years, and 150°C in 6000 years. Unfortunately, progress cannot be stopped; CO2 emissions are only growing every year. Under a realistic scenario, according to which CO2 emissions will grow at the same rate, doubling every 50 years, the temperature on Earth will already be 50°C in 100 years, and 150°C in 300 years.

Consequences of global climate change

global warming climate atmospheric

Extreme natural events are breaking all records in almost all regions of the world. And natural disasters have economic consequences. Damage from natural disasters increases every year. What consequences could global warming have?

Changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation. In general, the planet's climate will become wetter. But the amount of precipitation will not spread evenly across the Earth. In regions that already receive sufficient precipitation today, their precipitation will become more intense. And in regions with insufficient moisture, dry periods will become more frequent

Sea level rise. During the 20th century, the average sea level increased by 0.1-0.2 m. According to scientists, during the 21st century the sea level will rise by up to 1 m. In this case, coastal areas and small islands will be the most vulnerable. Countries such as the Netherlands, Great Britain, and the small island states of Oceania and the Caribbean will be the first to be at risk of flooding. In addition, high tides will become more frequent and coastal erosion will increase.

Threat to ecosystems and biodiversity. Species and ecosystems have already begun to respond to climate change. Migratory bird species began to arrive earlier in the spring and fly away later in the fall. There are predictions that up to 30-40% of plant and animal species will disappear because their habitats will change faster than they can adapt to these changes. With an increase in temperature of 1 °C, a change in the species composition of the forest is predicted. Forests are a natural store of carbon (80% of all carbon in terrestrial vegetation and about 40% of carbon in soil). The transition from one type of forest to another will be accompanied by the release of large amounts of carbon.

Melting of glaciers Modern glaciation of the Earth can be considered one of the most sensitive indicators of ongoing global changes. Satellite data show that snow cover has decreased by about 10% since the 1960s. Since the 1950s in the Northern Hemisphere, sea ice extent has decreased by almost 10-15%, and thickness has decreased by 40%. According to the forecasts of experts from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg), within 30 years the Arctic Ocean will completely break out from under the ice during the warm period of the year. The thickness of the Himalayan ice is melting at a rate of 10-15 m per year. At the current rate of these processes, two-thirds of China's glaciers will disappear by 2060, and by 2100 all glaciers will completely melt. Accelerating glacier melt poses a number of immediate threats to human development. For densely populated mountain and foothill areas, avalanches, flooding or, conversely, a decrease in the full flow of rivers, and as a result, a decrease in fresh water supplies, pose a particular danger.

Agriculture. The impact of warming on agricultural productivity is controversial. In some temperate areas, yields may increase with small increases in temperature, but will decrease with large temperature changes. In tropical and subtropical regions, yields are generally projected to decline. The biggest blow could be to the poorest countries, those least prepared to adapt to climate change. According to the IPCC, the number of people facing hunger could increase by 600 million by 2080, double the number of people currently living in poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. However, according to A. Kapitsa, “Excess carbon dioxide helps increase crop yields.”

Water consumption and water supply. One of the consequences of climate change may be a shortage of drinking water. In regions with arid climates (Central Asia, the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.), the situation will become even worse due to a decrease in precipitation levels. Due to the melting of glaciers, the flow of the largest waterways of Asia - the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yellow River, Indus, Mekong, Saluan and Yangtze - will significantly decrease. A lack of fresh water will not only affect human health and agricultural development, but will also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water resources.

Human health. Climate change, according to scientists, will lead to increased health risks for people, especially the less affluent segments of the population. Thus, a reduction in food production will inevitably lead to malnutrition and hunger. Abnormally high temperatures can lead to exacerbation of cardiovascular, respiratory and other diseases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), additional deaths in European countries from heat waves in August 2003 in the UK amounted to 2045 people, in France - 14802, in Italy - 3134, in Portugal - 2099.

Rising temperatures may change the geographic distribution of various disease-carrying species. As temperatures rise, the ranges of heat-loving animals and insects (for example, encephalitis ticks and malaria mosquitoes) will spread further north, while the people inhabiting these areas will not be immune to new diseases.

It should be added to the above that global warming threatens to create or is already creating such additional socio-economic threats as ground subsidence due to thawing of permafrost (such changes can be dangerous for buildings, engineering and transport structures); increased load on underwater pipelines and the likelihood of their emergency damage and ruptures, as well as obstacles to navigation due to increased channel processes on rivers; expansion of the range of infectious diseases (for example, encephalitis, malaria) and others.

Ways to prevent climate change

The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the constant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, agreed to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Conference on Environment and Development.

International agreements. In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012, including the European Union must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% , USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. Russia and Ukraine are content to keep their emissions below 1990 levels, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) may even increase their emissions because they have forests that absorb CO 2 .

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it must be ratified by states that account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. To date, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2004. Notable exceptions were the United States and Australia, which make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol.

In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures that need to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change. Here are some of them:

1. Reduce burning of fossil fuels

2. Use renewable energy sources more widely.

3.Stop the destruction of ecosystems.

4. Reduce energy losses during energy production and transportation

5. Use new energy-efficient technologies in industry.

6. Reduce energy consumption in the housing and construction sector.

7. New laws and incentives.

8. New ways to travel

9. Promote and encourage energy conservation and careful use of natural resources by residents of all countries

Conclusion

Climate change is considered one of the most serious global environmental problems facing humanity today. In the worst-case scenario, climate change will lead to catastrophic damage to the environment, human health, and the global economy. The people of the Earth are united not only by political, economic, and cultural ties, but also by a single air and water ocean, a single earth's surface. Air masses do not know state borders, and man has not yet learned to control them. The creation of good weather in limited areas is a matter of the near future. Therefore, Earth, Air, and Water are universal human values; all humanity must protect and save them from disaster.

International organizations created in the 40s - the UN, UNESCO - set as their goal to create a world without wars. To a large extent this was successful. Now these organizations must set a goal - to protect the world from environmental disasters. If an environmental disaster occurs, there will be no winners or losers. Man must not contradict the laws of nature; in order to conquer nature, he must obey it. And I believe that we should not be passive about the problem I described, but we must look for ways out of such an already existing difficult situation, and the future of our planet depends on each of us.

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Global warming

Orlova Ekaterina

Global warming

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean. Our planet is heating up and this is having a catastrophic effect on the Earth's ice caps. The temperature rises, the ice begins to melt, the sea begins to rise. Around the world, sea levels are rising twice as fast as they were 150 years ago. In 2005, 315 km 3 of ice from Greenland and Antarctica melted into the sea; for comparison, the city of Moscow uses 6 km 3 of water per year - this is global melting. In 2001, scientists predicted that sea levels would rise by 0.9 meters by the end of the century. This rise in water levels is enough to affect more than 100 million people around the world, but already many experts fear that their forecasts may be wrong.

Causes of global warming

Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences, with geological and paleontological evidence showing long-term climate cycles that take the form of glaciations. The causes of such climate changes remain unknown, but the main external influences include: changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles), solar activity (including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions and the greenhouse effect. According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain the subject of debate, but one of the most widely discussed is the greenhouse effect.

The results of two large-scale projects to study the causes of global warming turned out to be sensational. The authors of the studies have proven that humanity’s contribution to the total volume of carbon dioxide emissions is at least 10%. Industry and agriculture around the world are constantly increasing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which acts like a film in a greenhouse and prevents excess heat from dissolving into space. And the emissions of millions of cars, the production of metals and building materials are accompanied by the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

The rise in infrared absorption began simultaneously with the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century and continues to this day. Over the past 250 years, 1,100 billion tons of carbon dioxide have been released into the atmosphere, and half of this amount has occurred in the last 35 years. In the pre-industrial era, its concentration was 280 parts per million, by 1960 it reached 315 parts per million, and in 2005 it was 380 parts per million. Now it is increasing even faster, by about two points per year. According to paleoclimatic studies, our planet has not encountered such a rate of accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide for at least 650 thousand years.

Greenhouse gas emissions

The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and first quantitatively studied by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes the atmosphere and surface of the planet to warm. On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and ozone. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. These concentration levels have been reached for the first time in the last 650 thousand years, a period for which reliable data have been obtained from polar ice samples. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by humanity remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years are caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the remaining emissions are caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation. This theory is also supported by the facts that the observed warming is more significant: 1. in winter than in summer; 2. at night than during the day; 3. in high latitudes than in middle and low latitudes. It is also a fact that the rapid heating of the layers of the troposphere occurs against the background of a not very rapid cooling of the layers of the stratosphere.

Why global warming sometimes leads to colder temperatures

Global warming does not mean warming everywhere and at all times. In particular, in any area the average summer temperature may increase and the average winter temperature may decrease, that is, the climate will become more continental. Global warming can only be detected by averaging temperatures across all geographic locations and all seasons. According to one of the hypotheses, cold currents may appear (a branch from the El Niño current, which runs along the Northwestern coast of the United States and brings cooling to this territory), the transformation of the Gulf Stream from warm to cold, etc. This will cause a significant drop in average temperatures in Europe (while temperatures in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent by transporting warm water from the tropics.

According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, there is an oscillatory process in which glaciation (ice age) is generated by climate warming, and deglaciation (exit from the ice age) by cooling. This is due to the fact that in the Cenozoic, with the thawing of the polar ice caps, the amount of precipitation in high latitudes increases. Subsequently, there is a decrease in the temperature of the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere with the subsequent formation of glaciers. When the polar ice caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.

One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.

Over the past half century, temperatures in southwest Antarctica, on the Antarctic Peninsula, have increased by 2.5 °C. In 2002, an iceberg with an area of ​​over 2,500 km² broke off from the Larsen Ice Shelf, which has an area of ​​3,250 km² and is over 200 meters thick, located on the Antarctic Peninsula. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Before this, the glacier remained stable for 10 thousand years, since the end of the last ice age. The melting of the ice shelf led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) into the Weddell Sea. However, the area of ​​Antarctic glaciation is growing. An acceleration of the process of permafrost degradation has been noted.

Since the beginning of the 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia has increased by 1.0 °C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 °C. In northern Alaska, temperatures in the upper permafrost layer have increased by 3°C since the mid-1980s.

Increased frequency and intensity of hazardous weather events and the spread of infectious diseases. They cause significant economic damage and threaten the stable existence of ecosystems, as well as the health and life of people. Scientists' findings suggest that ongoing climate change may lead to even more dangerous consequences in the future if humanity does not take appropriate preventive measures, as well as an increase in average annual temperature by 0.8 degrees Celsius, and this is just the beginning. If carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow at the same rate, by 2050 the planet will become 1.5 degrees warmer than it is now, and by the end of the 21st century - by 3 degrees. To understand how this threatens humanity, it is enough to remember that 3 million years ago, when average annual temperatures were 2-3 degrees higher than today, the level of the world's oceans was 25 meters higher than now. And an increase in the planet's temperature by just a degree will raise the world's oceans by 5-6 meters. It's not just the greenhouse effect itself, but also its secondary consequences. Thus, an increase in temperature triggers numerous processes that increase its pace. For example, polar snow and ice strongly reflect the sun's rays and maintain the cold climate of the Arctic and Antarctic. When they melt, the soil is exposed or the water surface increases, which absorb solar radiation much more strongly. The melting of tundra permafrost zones leads to the evaporation of carbon dioxide accumulated there, as well as methane, which absorbs infrared rays 20 times stronger. An increase in the temperature of the surface layers of the world's oceans near the equator leads to the fact that hurricanes arising there are becoming more frequent and destructive. Warming temperatures will lead to more frequent and severe droughts and dramatically increase the risk of widespread wildfires.

They are also frightened by the lack of drinking water, the increase in the number of infectious diseases, and problems in agriculture due to droughts. But in the long term, nothing awaits other than human evolution. Our ancestors faced a more serious problem when temperatures rose sharply by 10°C after the end of the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization. Otherwise they would probably still be hunting mammoths with spears.

10 myths about global warming.

1). Global warming is a natural process. The person is not involved here.

Most likely not (temperature increases, especially since the 70s, far exceed natural changes).

2). In any case, the consequences will be gradual.

Severe storms are becoming more frequent, and history has proven that a sharp change in climatic conditions can occur suddenly, literally in just a few years.

3). Global warming will lead to a global flood.

If warming continues at the same rate, the level of the world's oceans will rise by 1 meter. If we assume that all the glaciers melt, which, of course, is impossible, then the water will rise by 10 meters. And if you consider that the average height of land above sea level is 840 meters, then you shouldn’t worry so much about flooding.

4). Global warming is the sole cause of sudden, unpredictable weather changes.

Far from the only one. There are a number of natural, cyclical processes to which global warming has nothing to do. And they are what can cause sudden warming or cooling. Such factors can include ocean currents, cyclones, changes in the Earth's magnetic field, and simply coincidences.

5). Carbon dioxide emissions are too small to cause global warming.

I would like to believe, but so far the facts deny this. Based on statistical data that can be trusted, graphs of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and temperature at this time were constructed. They match.

6). Due to global warming, the temperature will soon rise so much that we will all die.

Not that much and not soon. Over the past 100 years, the temperature has increased by 0.7°C, - 1°C. And according to the most daring forecasts, in the next 100 years it may rise by another 4.6°C, but most likely this increase will not exceed 2°C. Less likely, but there are models that predict even colder weather.

7). This will only benefit agriculture.

Carbon dioxide may increase the yield of some crops, but it will also increase the number of weeds and pests. Plants will not be able to grow well in the same place due to climate change.

8). The causes of global warming are known.

Many people believe that man is entirely to blame for global warming and that only by stopping industrial activity can a catastrophe be avoided. In fact, the problem of climate change is so new that it is now impossible to say with certainty about its causes. The fact that it is happening is a fact, but the fact that it is the result of anthropogenic human activity is far from the only version. For example, there is a version that this is the result of natural processes occurring in the Sun - Earth - Space system.

9). We know how to fight global warming, we have the technology

The strategic plan is in development. There are several large-scale options for combating global warming, but they are all from the realm of science fiction, and they require colossal investments comparable to the US budget, but many small changes are better than one big one.

10). We can't do anything about it.

Everyone can now contribute to the fight against global warming, even if simply by following recommendations in consumer activities.

Solving Global Warming

This problem is dealt with by organizations such as the UN, UNESCO, WHO, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), World Weather Watch (WWW), International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCNR), World Charter for Nature, etc. International public organizations play a major role (GreenPeace). It was found that the main cause of global warming is the accumulation of CO 2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. Later, due to scientific developments, as well as the experience of a number of countries, it was revealed that a reduction in CO 2 in the atmosphere can be achieved by:

Reducing the use of natural fuel in industry and replacing it with new types of energy (nuclear, solar, wind energy, tidal energy, geothermal sources);

Creating less energy-intensive processes;

Creation of waste-free production and closed-cycle production lines (it has now been shown that in some processes waste constitutes 80-90% of the feedstock).

Therefore, a program was developed that should lead to the achievement of a number of main goals. First, the entire planet will move to strict energy conservation standards, similar to those currently in effect in the United States only in California. The UN program also addresses environmental problems in various territories, problems of human health and well-being, protection of terrestrial ecosystems, the World Ocean, vegetation, wild animals, environmental energy issues, as well as environmental education and information, trade, economic and technological aspects. The WHO program includes a special section on research on environmental protection and its impact on human health. Much attention is paid to the possibility of increasing the incidence of already known infections (malaria and other natural focal infections), as well as the possibility of the emergence of new infections. The WMO program provides for the development of methods for long-term forecasting of possible climate changes and its impact on humans, as well as the influence of various factors on the climate. The practical significance of the program is that it will help people use climate data in planning and regulating all aspects of human activity. The IUCNPR program summarizes the experience of all countries in the field of nature conservation, identifies the main environmental problems of our time and proposes a system of rational methods for managing biosphere resources. The WWW program coordinates the activities of all interested countries in the field of collection and exchange of meteorological information and has three world centers - in Moscow, Washington and Melbourne.

The global industry will switch to modern energy-saving technologies; in particular, it will be possible to double the efficiency of fossil fuel power plants due to more complete use of residual heat. A million large wind power generators will be put into operation. 800 powerful coal-fired power plants will be built, the emissions of which will be completely free of carbon dioxide. 700 nuclear power plants will be built, and none of the currently operating ones will be closed. The global fleet of cars and light trucks will completely switch to vehicles that travel at least 25 km per liter of gasoline. Over time, all cars will receive hybrid engines, which will allow them to turn on only electric motors powered by batteries on short routes. To supply them with electricity, another 0.5 million wind generators will be built. The area under crops for agricultural crops that can serve as raw materials for the production of biofuel from plant cellulose will be sharply expanded. Tropical countries, with the help of the international community, will reverse deforestation and double the current rate of tree planting.

Already, many highly developed industrial countries have strict environmental laws in place: requirements for the purification of emissions have been established, new technologies are being developed to prevent air pollution, standards for vehicle exhaust gas emissions have been tightened, etc. In some countries (USA, Canada) a central environmental management body has been created. Its goal is to develop national environmental standards that ensure improvement of the environmental situation and control over their implementation. The specifics of Japanese culture (the cult of housing, people, health) make it possible to solve all problems not at the level of government agencies, but at the level of the city or district, which gives good results. In general, it must be said that in Europe, air emissions controls are not as strict as in the United States.

Consequences of global warming

Approximate diagram of the consequences of global warming.

The social aspect of this program is also great. Climate change will affect the interests of everyone on the planet. Moreover, this can continue for a long period. A possible change in the economy of the state can lead to a change in the entire way of life of people in a particular territory. In addition, the predicted rise in the level of the world's oceans and, in connection with this, the flooding of large land areas will require not only the construction of protective structures, but also the resettlement of entire peoples, which can cause social upheaval. The big problem of this plan will be the impact of climate change on human health, and, above all, the need to adapt to new climatic conditions. It is possible that new diseases will appear and the level of existing diseases will increase. All the changes that occur on Earth do not pass without leaving a trace on our body. Our barbaric attitude towards the Earth has made it aggressive for us. The ecological tragedy of the Earth has turned into a physical and moral tragedy of man. Even conservative estimates predict that over the next 60 years, rising sea levels will destroy a quarter of all homes within 150 meters of the coast. Recent research paints a more alarming picture. By the end of the century, sea levels could rise by as much as 6 meters, and this could all happen to us all due to melting. Data analysis shows that over the past century, our planet Earth has warmed one degree above average. According to scientists, in the next 50 years the temperature will rise by another 3-5 degrees, which will lead to dire consequences both for the Earth and for people and wildlife.

China, which is one of the main suppliers of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, will at the same time feel the greatest negative consequences of warming in the 21st century. According to forecasts, even a rise in sea level of 0.5 m will lead to flooding of about 40 thousand km 2 of fertile plains. The most vulnerable will be the vast low lower reaches of the large rivers Yellow, Yangtze and others, where the average population density sometimes reaches 800 people/km2. In addition, coastal erosion will intensify significantly, which will lead to serious socio-economic consequences, especially in large cities located on sea coasts. Changes on well-developed shores, for example, the Black and Azov Seas, where natural development will be combined with intensive anthropogenic impact, i.e. removal of sediment from beaches, construction of dams and dams on rivers, creation of bank protection structures, etc. Sandy embankments separating estuaries in the North-Western Black Sea region and the Sea of ​​Azov, as well as spits of the Northern Azov region, will be destroyed most intensively. Flooding of coastal lowlands is expected in the Kuban delta. Coastal slopes composed of fragile loess will begin to retreat faster. In the area of ​​Odessa, Mariupol, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in addition to the erosion of ledges, landslide and landslide processes will intensify, and the destruction of the banks can reach catastrophic proportions. Ice coasts, in conditions of rising air and surface water temperatures, will be subject to rapid destruction due to melting ice and the collapse of overhanging ice blocks. It is possible that the number of icebergs will increase in the areas of their distribution (Spitsbergen, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya), and in the waters of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas.

Permafrost in 2025 and 2050

If the above forecast estimates of moderate (and even more so sharp) climate warming in the northern regions come true, then by the middle of the new century the appearance of permafrost in Russia will change significantly.

A comparison of modern permafrost characteristics with predicted ones was carried out by compiling a consistent series of small-scale maps. In addition to purely permafrost characteristics (distribution of permafrost, their thickness, temperature, ice content, depth of seasonal thawing), to assess possible changes in permafrost, it is necessary to take into account the composition of rocks, as well as the relief and the entire complex of landscape conditions. The diagram given in the article shows four zones. The first is formed by territories that are not part of the modern permafrost region. Here, seasonal soil freezing to depths of no more than 4 - 5 m. By the middle of the 21st century. the depth and area of ​​distribution of seasonal freezing will be reduced. The three remaining zones cover the modern area of ​​permafrost and differ from each other in different degrees and timing of the onset of widespread deep thawing of permafrost from above. Its beginning is taken to be the moment when the soil layer, thawed over the summer, does not completely freeze the next winter and the roof of permafrost begins to progressively decrease. The time interval during which such rocks will completely thaw depends not only on climate warming, but also on the composition and ice content of the rocks, their temperature and thickness, and on the influx of heat from below - from the depths of the Earth. This melting can last for years, decades, hundreds and thousands of years. The second zone from the south is the areas where permafrost will be thawing everywhere by 2020. It will form only within the West Siberian Lowland. Currently, only rare islands are found here. After their thawing, the southern boundary of the permafrost will retreat to the north by 300 km or more, the thawing of ice-swollen peatlands will be accompanied by intense subsidence of the surface, but this will not bring serious changes to the natural environment and human activity: permafrost peatlands are rare and are practically not involved in economic development. The third zone unites two subzones, the boundaries between which are very intricate and are not shown in our diagram. The first (from the south) includes territories where permafrost will begin to melt everywhere only by 2050. The fourth zone of relatively stable permafrost includes the northern part of the permafrost zone (the uppermost layer of the earth’s crust, characterized throughout the year or at least for a short time (but at least a day) negative temperature of soils and rocks and the presence or possibility of the existence of underground ice) with the lowest temperatures of rocks - from -3 to -1°C. Their thickness is measured in hundreds of meters. Given the predicted scale of climate warming, deep thawing of permafrost in this area is excluded. Only the area of ​​the taliks will increase slightly.

Winter precipitation will contribute to an increase in the temperature of permafrost rocks, and summer precipitation will lead to their destruction due to increased thermokarst (the process of uneven subsidence of soils and underlying rocks due to the melting of underground ice), thermoerosion (a combination of thermal and mechanical effects of flowing water on frozen rocks and ice), thermal abrasion (a combination of processes of thermal and mechanical destruction of the shores of reservoirs under the influence of surf on coastal areas composed of frozen rocks containing a large number of underground ice bodies), as well as landslide processes. They will manifest themselves most clearly on accumulative plains composed of high-ice rocks, i.e. where permafrost strata, due to their low temperatures and high thickness, will remain generally stable. When the upper ice horizon is destroyed, the surface is significantly deformed and, if protective measures are not taken in a timely manner, a threat looms over engineering structures.

Global warming by the middle of the 21st century. can lead to a shift in the boundaries of vegetation zones (tundra, temperate forests, steppes, etc.) potentially by hundreds of kilometers. Thus, in the northern regions of Eurasia, the boundaries of plant zones will move north by 500-600 km, and the tundra zone will significantly decrease in size. According to UNEP, the climate change forecast will result in an accelerated decline in the areas of tropical forests and savannas in Africa. The given data on changes in the natural zoning of Russia are generally favorable for the development of agriculture. This follows from the fact that the maximum increase with climate warming is in the zone of broad-leaved forests, which is associated with a region of sustainable and highly productive agriculture, as well as in the zone of steppe and forest-steppe, where effective grain farming is possible. A significant increase in the area of ​​land (by 4.7 million km2, i.e. 1.5 times more modern) potentially suitable for agriculture is expected. In a number of countries (USA, UK, Sweden, Austria, etc.) experiments have been carried out on studying a number of cultivated plants under conditions of elevated CO 2 concentrations. It has been established that when the concentration is doubled in many plants, the amount of transpiration (evaporation of water by the plant) decreases and the leaf surface increases. In forestry, against the backdrop of improved growing conditions for forest formations, favorable environmental parameters may arise for the growth and reproduction of various insect pests, which will lead to the emergence significant foci of forest diseases. Therefore, the measures already being taken to combat deforestation, to increase the rate of reforestation and improve the use of wood - all this will create optimal conditions for the development of forestry in the 21st century.

List of sources

1. http://ru.wikipedia.org

2. http://www.worldwarming.info

3. http://www.ecoindustry.ru/

The hypothesis put forward, that a change in temperature in a positive direction occurs from year to year, was proven during the study.

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Municipal educational institution

Nazarevskaya Secondary School

Global warming is a pressing problem of the century

Completed by a 6th grade student

Golts Vladimir

Head: geography teacher

Yapparova Lyudmila Valentinovna

Nazaryevo - 2013 -

Introduction

In recent decades, climate change on the planet has become obvious. The life of all inhabitants of the Earth directly depends on the state of the climate. Scientists studying climate have found a relationship between the influence of human activity on changes in weather conditions, and, as a result, global warming. Economic calculations show that if the growth rate of modern energy based on the combustion of fossil fuels continues in the future, the Earth's climate will change towards warming. Therefore, the problem of climate warming on our planet is extremely urgent.

It is well known that the average annual air temperature is steadily rising. Its increase is estimated at 0.7. °C for 100 years. Warming is accompanied by some negative phenomena: increased frequency of floods, hurricanes, and desertification problems. These problems harm both nature and humans. Therefore, it is important to know how the climate will change in the future, what negative consequences may await us in the future.

In our work, we set a goal to study changes in air temperatures in the Moscow region, based on the observations of students at our school.

The object of study is global warming.

The subject of the study is climate warming using the example of temperature changes in the Moscow region.

Our hypothesis is that the temperature changes in a positive direction from year to year.

Research objectives:

Explore the concept of “global warming”;

Consider the causes of global warming;

Analyze your own observations of change

Climate in the Moscow region.

Chapter 1. Global warming

1. Global warming, its causes.

A lot is being said and written about global warming.

Almost every day new hypotheses appear and old ones are refuted. Global warming has already become a “global mess” for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. Let's try to systematize the information about global warming available in different sources.

Global warming- the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.).
People first started talking about global warming and the greenhouse effect in the 60s of the 20th century, and at the UN level the problem of global climate change was first raised in 1980. Since then, many scientists have puzzled over this problem, often mutually refuting each other’s theories and assumptions.

Many scientists suggest that much of the warming observed over the past 50 years is caused by human activity. Scientists who dispute the view that human activity has played a significant role in the observed rise in temperatures are in a clear minority.

However, it is not known exactly how significant future climate changes will be.

Estimates from climate models cited by the IPCC say the Earth's average temperature could rise by between 1.4 and 5.8°C between 1990 and 2100. This is expected to lead to other climate changes, including rising sea levels and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation. As a result, natural disasters such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc. may become more frequent, agricultural yields will decrease and many biological species will disappear. Although warming is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of such events, it is very difficult to definitively link any specific event to global warming.

1.2. Greenhouse effect.

The cause of rising temperatures is the widely discussed anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

Very often as a synonymglobal warminguse the phrase"Greenhouse effect", but there is a slight difference between these concepts.

Greenhouse effectis an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean due to an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth’s atmosphere. These gases act as a film or glass of a greenhouse (greenhouse); they freely transmit the sun's rays to the Earth's surface and retain heat leaving the planet's atmosphere.

The effect of the greenhouse effect is similar to the effect of glass in a greenhouse or greenhouse (hence the name “greenhouse effect”). Science knows that adding water, carbon dioxide or methane to the atmosphere, all other things being equal, will increase the temperature of the planet. These gases create a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth's surface temperature would be 30°C lower, making it uninhabitable. Therefore, it cannot be said that there is a dispute between those who “believe” in the theory of the greenhouse effect. Rather, what is disputed is the net effect of increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, i.e. whether warming due to the greenhouse effect is compensated by changes in the distribution of water vapor, clouds, in the biosphere or other climatic factors. However, the increase in Earth's temperature observed over the past 50 years contradicts the theories of skeptics about the compensating role of the above feedbacks. Long-term observations show that as a result of economic activities, the gas composition and dust content of the lower layers of the atmosphere changes. Millions of tons of soil particles rise into the air from plowed lands during dust storms. During the development of mineral resources, during the production of cement, during the application of fertilizers and the friction of car tires on the road, during the combustion of fuel and the release of industrial waste, a large amount of suspended particles of various gases enter the atmosphere. Determinations of air composition show that there is now 25% more carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere than 200 years ago. This is, of course, the result of human economic activity, as well as deforestation, the green leaves of which absorb carbon dioxide. An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air is associated with the greenhouse effect, which manifests itself in the heating of the inner layers of the Earth's atmosphere. This happens because the atmosphere transmits most of the sun's radiation. Some of the rays are absorbed and heat the earth's surface, which heats the atmosphere. Another part of the rays is reflected from the surface of the planet and this radiation is absorbed.

Chapter 2. Climate change in the Moscow region

2.1. Climate of the Moscow region.

The Moscow region has a temperate continental climate with clearly defined seasonality; continentality increases from northwest to southeast.

The period with an average daily temperature below 0 °C lasts 120-135 days, starting in mid-November and ending at the end of March. The coldest month is January (average temperature in the west of the region is -10 °C, in the east -11 °C). In some years, frosts reached -45 °C. In winter (especially in December and February), thaws caused by Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones are frequent; They are usually short-lived, their average duration is 4 days. The warmest month is July (+18-19°). The average annual temperature rises from 3.2° in the north to 4.5° in the south. Over the past 100 years, the absolute minimum was recorded in the city of Naro-Fominsk - 54 °, the maximum - in the cities of Kashira and Zaraysk - +39 °. The average daily temperature in the center of Moscow throughout the year is higher than on its outskirts by an average of 1-2°.

During the year, an average of 550-650 mm of precipitation falls in the region, two thirds in the form of rain, one third in the form of snow. The most precipitation falls on the Klinsko-Dmitrovskaya Upland, the least in the Kolomna region. A stable snow cover is formed

usually at the end of November, by the end of winter the snow cover reaches an average of 30 - 45 cm.

The Moscow region receives about 34% of the possible sunshine, the rest is absorbed by clouds. Completely clear days - 17%, completely cloudy - 32%. Clear days most often occur in April, cloudy days in November.

The strongest winds are observed in winter, the weakest in summer. Over the past 30 years, the average annual temperature in the region has increased by almost 1 degree, which we will try to prove below with our research.

2.2. Changes in average annual air temperature in the Moscow region based on our own observations over three years.

During geography lessons, sixth-graders at our school annually observe the weather in our region. In accordance with the scope and relevance of the problem of this work, we worked through their observation diaries over the past three years, and here are the results we received:

The average temperature in January 2010 was the coldest in three years at -16º, the following January was warmer by 8º, and in 2012 the temperature increased by another 2º (see Appendix).

In February we observe a slightly different situation: the warmest month in 2010 (-9 º). The following year, the February temperature drops to -11 º, and in 2012 it rises by 1 º.

The average monthly temperature in March is stable: in 2010 -2 º, in 2011 – (-2) º, in 2012 – (-3) º.

In April, an increase is observed by 2012: from +7 º in 2010 and 2011 to +10 º in 2012.

The average monthly temperature in March for three years is approximately the same: 2010 - +15 º, 2011 - +14 º, 2012 - +15 º.

In June, a slight increase is noticeable: 2010 - +17 º, 2011 - +19 º, 2012 - +18 º.

In July and August, over the course of three years, the average monthly temperature, on the contrary, decreased.

September and October - the temperature gets higher every year (September 2010 - +11 º, 2011 - +19 º, 2012 - +18 º; October 2010 - +3 º, 2011 - +6 º, 2012 - +7 º ).

In November, the highest temperatures were observed in 2012 - +3 º (in 2010 - +3 º, in 2011 - 0 º).

Average monthly temperatures in December 2010 – (-7 º), 2011 – (-1 º), 2012 – (-8 º).

According to the study, the increase in average monthly temperatures is not clearly visible, but by calculating the average annual temperature, our hypothesis is confirmed:

The average annual temperature in 2010 was +5.6 º, in 2011 - +6.5 º, in 2012 – +6.6 º. If we compare 2010 and 2012, the difference in average annual temperatures was 1 º. Warming is obvious.

2.3 Possible consequences and whether global warming can be prevented.

The Earth's climate was not constant. Warm periods gave way to cold ones - glacial ones. In general, over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 0.3–0.8 ° C, the area of ​​snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 8%, and the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 10–20 centimeters. These facts cause some concern. Will global warming stop or will the average annual temperature on Earth continue to rise? The answer to this question will appear only when the causes of ongoing climate change are precisely established.

If Earth's temperature continues to rise, it will have a dramatic impact on the global climate. The tropics will experience more precipitation as the extra heat increases the amount of water vapor in the air. In dry areas, rainfall will become even less frequent and these areas will turn into deserts, forcing people and animals to abandon them.

Sea temperatures will also rise, leading to flooding of low-lying coastal areas and an increase in the number of severe storms. Rising temperatures on Earth can cause sea levels to rise as water warms up, becomes less dense and expands, and the expansion of sea water will lead to an overall rise in sea levels.

Rising temperatures could melt some of the perennial ice that covers some land areas, such as Antarctica or high mountain ranges. The resulting water will eventually flow into the seas, raising their levels.

It should be noted, however, that melting ice floating in the seas will not cause sea levels to rise.

The Arctic ice cover is a huge layer of floating ice. Like Antarctica, the Arctic is also surrounded by many icebergs. Climatologists have calculated that if the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers melt, the level of the World Ocean will rise by 70-80 m.

If the air temperature continues to increase, residential areas will shrink, the water-salt balance of the oceans will be disrupted, and the trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones will change.

If temperatures on Earth rise, many animals will not be able to adapt to climate change. Many plants will die from lack of moisture and animals will have to move to other places in search of food and water. If rising temperatures lead to the death of many plants, then many species of animals will also die out.

However, in addition to the negative consequences of global warming, several positive ones can be noted. Excess carbon dioxide has a particularly beneficial effect on plants growing in dry conditions. With warming and increased carbon dioxide levels, many plants will increase photosynthesis. This means that their biomass will increase. Many scientists are sure that: “we live in more and more favorable environmental conditions. Our children will enjoy life on an Earth with many more plants and animals. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution."

According to scientists, without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30 degrees below zero and there would most likely be no life on it.

It is the greenhouse effect, being a natural blanket, that creates favorable conditions for life on Earth.

Is it possible to prevent global warming?

The governments of most countries in the world have already signed

international agreements and commitments on global warming

(UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in 1992

and the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997), and the adult world has already developed a universal recipe for mitigating climate change:

Limit the consumption of fossil fuels (especially coal and fuel oil - the most “harmful” energy sources for the climate);

Save energy consumption and increase the efficiency of its use;

Use alternative (non-carbon) energy sources;

Develop and implement new environmentally friendly and low-carbon technologies;

Prevent deforestation, protect them from forest fires, and engage in reforestation.

Conclusion

In this work, the following tasks were solved: the concept of “global warming” and the causes of global warming were considered. We carried out our own observations on climate change in the Moscow region over three years. Having analyzed our observations, it was concluded that climate warming in the Moscow region is obvious.

According to observations, it was revealed that the average annual temperature in 2010 was 5.6º, in 2011 the average annual temperature was 6.5º, in 2012 the average annual temperature was 6.6º. The difference in temperature values ​​is +1º.

Thus, the hypothesis we put forward was fully confirmed.

List of used literature:

1. Grekhankina L.F. Native Moscow region. Tutorial. Moscow, 2008
2. Maksakovsky V.P. Social and economic geography of the world. Grade 10. M.: Education, 2011. With. 41-46
3. Encyclopedia for children "Avanta+" Moscow ZAO "House of Books Avanta+" p.676-683
4. Safonov G.V. Dangerous consequences of global climate change. – M.: RREC, GOF, WWW Russia, 2006.http://www.climatechange.ru/files/RREC_climate_change_consequences_RUS.pdf
5. “Climate change: pros and cons for Russia.” Greenpeace report.http://www.greenpeace.org/russia/ru/press/reports/2921111

APPLICATIONS.

Data for 2010

Table of average monthly temperatures in 2010

January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	november	December
16º	9º	2º	7º	15º	17º	25º	21º	11º	3º	2º	7º

Average annual temperature = 5.6 º

Graph of average monthly temperatures in 2010

8º

11º

2º

7º

14º

19º

23º

19º

12º

6º

0 º

1º

Average annual temperature = 6.5 º

Graph of average monthly temperatures in 2011

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

november

December

6º

10º

3º

10º

15º

18º

22º

18º

13º

7º

3º

8º

Average annual temperature = 6.6 º

Graph of average monthly temperatures in 2012

Comparative indicators of average monthly temperatures

in 2010-2012

Municipal budgetary educational institution "Ageevskaya secondary school No. 3" Tsentralny village

Global warming and climate change in the Tula region.

Completed by: 8th grade student

Strizhekozina Violeta.

Head: teacher

geography Romashova T.V.

p. Central

Information from the Internet.

Glossary The white stripe indicates the range of average annual temperatures in the Tula region

Application

Questions from a survey of school students and the results obtained..

Do you believe in global warming

Yes, there are more natural disasters in the world - 48%

No, scientists are misleading all people - 23%

The weather forecast for today and tomorrow is enough for me - 29%

The results of the survey on the pages of Internet sites

Possible answer

Age, years

50 and older

I find it difficult to answer

Appendix No. 3

A graph clearly demonstrating global warming of the world's climate

Structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia

By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase may reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to optimistic estimates, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable to him, and this is true. Living in the middle zone, it is difficult to feel this. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the impact and harm of global warming.

Currently, the average temperature on Earth is about 15 degrees. During the Ice Age it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, humanity will feel the global warming problem when the average atmospheric temperature exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.

Causes of global warming

Around the world, experts identify many reasons that cause global warming. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.

Greenhouse effect

The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. An increase in production intensity, the number of factories, cars, and the planet's population affects the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitrogen oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density of the lower layers of the atmosphere increases. Greenhouse gases allow solar energy to pass through them, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off is retained by these gases and not released into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.

The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases are released in one form or another by almost any production. Most emissions come from carbon dioxide, which is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, and natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. Large amounts of emissions are released into the atmosphere from conventional waste incineration.

Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that produce oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases are emitted not only by industrial enterprises, but also by agricultural ones. For example, cattle farms. Conventional barns are sources of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminant cattle consume a huge amount of plants per day and, when digesting it, produce gases. This is called "ruminant flatulence." Methane accounts for less than 25% of greenhouse gases, however, than carbon dioxide.

Another anthropogenic factor in the increase in the average temperature of the Earth is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. Being in the atmosphere, they absorb solar energy, heating the air and preventing the warming of the planet's surface. If they fall out, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the earth. For example, this effect has a negative impact on the snow of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot when they fall heat the snow and cause it to melt.

Natural causes

Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, along with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory is subject to numerous criticisms. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity did heat the Earth's atmosphere, this would affect all layers, not just the bottom.

Another natural cause is volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release of large amounts of water vapor. In addition, volcanic ash enters the atmosphere, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.

Consequences of global warming

The harm caused by global warming can already be traced. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's seas has risen by 20 centimeters due to the melting of Arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Over the past year, there have been several large icebergs from the main ice mass. Also, due to global warming, heat waves in summer now cover 100 times more area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers occurred on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is 10%.

Dangers of global warming

If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to ecologists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some sources, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will lead to floods and other climate disasters. Thus, according to some forecasts, almost half of all land will fall into the flood zone. Changing water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.

The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated changes in people’s lifestyles, savings, all kinds of crises, and changes in consumption patterns.

Another consequence of such warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within continents, it will no longer be possible to carry out the usual types of agricultural industry in one territory or another. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.

Warming Island

A clear example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having melted, it turned out that instead of a connection there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".

Fighting global warming

The main direction of the fight against global warming is the attempt to limit the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Thus, the largest environmental organizations, for example, Greenpeace or WWF, advocate abandoning investments in fossil fuels. Also, various types of actions are carried out in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.

Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was concluded. It was signed by 192 countries around the world. Some have committed to reducing emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at 1990s levels.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement that replaced the Kyoto Agreement was concluded in France; it was ratified by 96 countries. The agreement also commits countries to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the rate of increase in the planet's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrialization eras. The agreement commits countries to moving towards a green, carbon-free economy by 2020, reducing emissions and contributing money to a climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US withdrew from it.