Images of a chain of events. Reality management. Event chains. Create an item of power

"Resistance in the AC circuit" - Inductive resistance in the AC circuit. Are the shapes the same color? Capacitance in an alternating current circuit. Conductor resistivity Conductor length in meters Conductor cross-sectional area in mm2. Capacitance - a value that characterizes the resistance provided to alternating current by electrical capacitance.

"Chains of food grade 3" - FROG 3rd link - insectivorous. Violation of the supply chain. What threatens the supply chain? Harm. Grasshopper 2 link - herbivorous. Nature. The assumption of the consequences of a violation of the food chain. Definition of a food chain. Death. Animals eat plants or other animals. Food chains. NETTLE 1 link - plant.

"Current in a circuit" - What is an electric current in metals? How to show by experience that the strength of the current in the circuit depends on the properties of the conductor? What is tension? What is the graph of current versus voltage? Ohm's law for a circuit section. What is the name of a device for measuring current? By what actions of the current can we judge the presence of it in the circuit?

"Parallel and serial circuit connection" - Application of serial and parallel connections. 3. How is a voltmeter included in the circuit? Solving problems for a mixed connection. Determine the readings of the voltmeter V and ammeters A2 and A3. Solving problems for parallel connection. Advantages and disadvantages of parallel connection. Algorithm for solving problems.

“Short circuit in the circuit” - There is such an expression “plugs burned out”. In the event of a short circuit, the current flowing in the circuit increases sharply, which leads to significant heat generation, and, as a result, thermal damage to the device or electrical wires, up to a fire or electrical injury.

"Conductor in an electrical circuit" - The current in the circuit is 0.4A. Determine the voltage at the ends of the circuit. Parallel connection I \u003d I1 + I2 U \u003d U1 \u003d U2 1 / R \u003d 1 / R1 + 1 / R2 For identical conductors R \u003d R1 / n p. The laws of connecting conductors. 1. Two conductors with a resistance of 4 ohms and 2 ohms are connected in series. The wires can be connected like this...

Usually a person simply lives in the stream of reality and this stream carries him "as it will," and everyone wants to be good(more details -) . All events in life are interconnected, they are diverse, numerous, often chaotic and unpredictable. Man does not analyze how it happened and lives. Sometimes it turns out to “sail” where you need to go yourself. But many people get tired of constant difficulties and obstacles, look for solutions, think... Any efforts of a person to find himself and find harmony inside bring good results. In severe cases, a person can turn to a specialist who will help him see and understand from the outside the cause of the troubles.

Outmitters have techniques that will help to find the cause of problems and eliminate it. We must harmonize the life of a person who turned to us for help, we must see the area where he "floats on the river" and what parts his life events consist of - the types and types of events that occur. learning regulate events, work with algorithms, build event chains that a person needs.

What are chains of events?

Great importance is given to the primary elements - these are the energy foundations. Outmitters in many signs work with the primary elements, for example, the “stop flow” sign allows you to “spray” any event and information (negative) on the primary elements: no connection - no influence. All events that occur in life are made up of elements: fire, water, earth, air. When working with chains, you can work with Tarot. The theory of working with chains of events is known in esotericism from techniques "Dream Hackers"- work with Medici solitaires, they participated in the development of this Outmitter course event management block.

There are primary elements in any event. Each element has its own properties and qualities, which are "prescribed" in actions and events. Action and event are different terms, you need to understand the difference, this is important, since they reflect the impact on reality in different ways. In this lesson, we will study in detail, using examples, how an action unfolds an event. The actions of all the elements are divided into several types, each of which has its own meaning. We study in detail each type of action, relationships, properties and ways of implementing each action.

Event management algorithms.

When we understand which category the event belongs to, we will build it correctly like bricks. What does it mean in this sense "Live Consciously"? - extract the essence from events. ()

What are the activities and events? Each event stream has its own characteristics - enoms, information markers. We realize the essence of what is happening in life, the personal flow, we learn to change it with the help of algorithms.

Chain structure. Every event chain has components - wanted, done, got the result. We all know the theory well "overcapacity"(Zeeland), which explains the reason, why "you want a lot - you get a little". In this lesson, we analyze the structure of the chain and the actions on each component. We analyze how to get rid of excess potential at any point in the chain of events.

One example of looped events is the "Sisyphean chain of events", in which the excess potential at the point of desire is so large that the chain cannot be corrected, it must be interrupted by a certain algorithm, and then an artificially new chain of the desired vector of desire must be created. We are studying the algorithm for interrupting and creating a new chain (I want the same thing, but without excess potential). Sisyphus chain interruption algorithm includes several actions : we block the event, wait for the peace sign (article about), thank you, define the interrupt action and the final action. The Sisyphean chain generates many engrams.

We analyze in detail other chains of events that lead to the desired result. We are learning to move from one stream of reality to another ("field of options" Zeland, more article -).

We invite you to study in the course of karmic healing.

(μεταφ.) series, chain of events, etc.), line, series, queue, order.- [sirin] ουσ. Α (μυθ.) siren ... Λεξικό Ελληνικά-ρωσική νέα (New Greek-Russian Dictionary)

CHAIN, chains, about chains, in (on) chains, pl. chains, chains, women 1. A number of interconnected metal links, upr. as a rope or rope for tying, lifting, etc. "Anchor chains rattle." Maksim Gorky. Anchor chain. Iron chain. Put the dog... Explanatory Dictionary of Ushakov

chain- and, about the chain / pi, in (on) the chain /, pl. and, e / d, f. 1) A movable row of metal links threaded one into the other. Anchor chain. ... Scream, noise, gypsy choruses, a bear's roar, its impatient rattling of chains ... (Pushkin). 2) trans. only ed. A row, a string ... ... Popular dictionary of the Russian language

CHAIN, and, about the chain, in (on) the chain, from the chain and from the chain, pl. and, she, wives. 1. A series of metal (or other strong) links threaded one into the other. Anchor c. Dog on a chain. Put on a chain or on a chain. How someone broke off the chain. (about noisy, violent ... ... Explanatory dictionary of Ozhegov

And suggest. about the chain, on the chain; pl. genus. her, dat. pyam; and. 1. A series of metal links threaded sequentially one into the other. Bridge chains. Put the dog on c. Anchor c. // plural only: chains, hey. Obsolete Shackles, shackles. Shackle chains. Chain in ... ... encyclopedic Dictionary

I 1. A series of metal links threaded sequentially one into the other. 2. trans. A string, a series of following or located one after another persons, objects. ott. Continuous following one after another, a consistent series of any phenomena, ... ... Modern explanatory dictionary of the Russian language Efremova

An example of a two-state chain A Markov chain is a sequence of random events with a finite or countable number of outcomes, characterized by the property that, go ... Wikipedia

And, suggestion about the chain, on the chain, kind. pl. her, w. 1. A number of metal links threaded sequentially one into the other (used for communication, lifting, etc.). Bridge chains. Put the dog on a chain. □ Three hours! she said, taking out a small watch, ... ... Small Academic Dictionary

chain- and, suggestion; about the chain / pi, on the chain /; pl. genus. e/y, date. pyam; and. see also chain, chain 1) a) A series of metal links threaded sequentially one into the other. Bridge chains. Put the dog on a chain... Dictionary of many expressions

A Markov chain is a sequence of random events with a finite or countably infinite number of outcomes, characterized by the property that, loosely speaking, with a fixed present, the future is independent of the past. Named after A. A. Markov ... Wikipedia

Books

• Golden Chain, Alexander Grin, Mysterious circumstances lead Sandy - the protagonist of the story "The Golden Chain" - to an extraordinary house, where he finds himself in the center of events that he will remember all his life: "...... Series: Publisher: Book on Demand,
• Kashcheeva chain, Prishvin M., Lifetime edition. Moscow - Leningrad, 1927. State publishing house. Owner's binding with original glued cover. The safety is good. "Kashcheev's chain" is conceived as ... Publisher:

My fear of something usually means I have to do it.

Recently I got to the webinar of Oleg Goryacho, in which he shared interesting observations about successful people. If anyone does not know, Oleg is a businessman, business coach and personal growth, over the past year, his activities brought him about 50 million rubles. With all that, the other day, on August 2, he turned 27 years old. In general, such people should be listened to. He said that he talked with many businessmen, there were about a hundred of them, and he noticed one feature. If in the life of an ordinary person there are not so many events that knock him out of the usual rhythm of life, then the life of successful businessmen resembles a rollercoaster. Why is it good?

For an ordinary person, everything is known in advance, safe, familiar. And his life is predictable, and the results can be predicted in advance. This is called the comfort zone. This state is habitual and everyone tends to stay in this zone. But at the same time, I want to achieve something much more than I have now, not only in material terms, but also in terms of personal life, success. This usually happens when we leave our comfort zone. And since a person does not want to leave it himself, leaving the comfort zone is often an external influence. For example: a person has lost his job. Then he has to move, look for a new one, make efforts, create a reputation in a new place. If he continued to work at the same job, it is unlikely that he would look for a new one. The new always brings some discomfort and an element of uncertainty, unpredictability, which is always frightening. The paradox is that all our successes and achievements are usually associated with our exit from the comfort zone. And the more often we get out of it, the more chances we have for success.

It turns out the best strategy is not to wait for changes, but to create them, to get ahead of events. Change doesn't have to be work related. It can be meeting new people, new hobbies, new places where you have not been yet. How many new things do you try during the week?

Oleg also introduced an interesting concept - creating a chain of events. It is a conscious step out of your comfort zone that sets off a chain of events that increases your chances of success. Sometimes even in completely unexpected ways. A good way is to go to training, learn something new. Perhaps your best gain from training will be a new skill, new knowledge. And maybe it will introduce you to new interesting people, prompt new ideas, possibly start a process that will subsequently bring you wealth or the love of your life.
I have my own example of this chain. In 2007, I bought a bike, became interested in traveling, a year later I went to my first mountain marathon in Altai. The need to order parts online helped me gain experience in online shopping, negotiations with sellers, and I also improved my English skills. Trips to competitions in other cities helped me gain travel experience, later, my fiancee and I were able to go to one of the cycling days in Almaty on our own. All this gave me an experience that later helped me organize our independent trip to Thailand, to the island of Koh Samui. If interested, you can read about it on my travel blog http://yedemsami.ru. Despite the fact that both of us have never been abroad before, except for Kazakhstan. Although at first glance there is no connection between the bicycle and Thailand. I made a bunch of wonderful friends, you can write a separate article about this. This is how the circuit works. You may not even know where it will lead you, but it will expand your possibilities and horizons, that's for sure.

Yesterday my friends and I discussed these ideas and decided to try to find an opportunity to get out of the comfort zone, try something new and then meet and discuss the results during the week.
I would be glad if you write in the comments about your experience of leaving the comfort zone and the success that you have achieved thanks to this.

♦ Heading: .

With chains. As a practical application, a relatively simple task- Forecasting the movement of the exchange rate.

When constructing chains, the methodology described in the article “Automatic text analysis without moderators” and in the comments to it was used. After the description of the algorithm, a strategy with a positive mathematical expectation arrived.

Introduction

When processing events, you have to look for the meaning of what is happening. If the sun is shining from the sky and the southwest wind is blowing, then what does this mean? And if it suddenly got dark and deaf rumbles are heard, then what threatens it?

The answer to these questions lies in the future. If the weather is good now, then you can go for a walk. And if the clouds suddenly thickened, then you need to prepare for the rain. Thus, events from the present become prerequisites for shaping the future.

But the future doesn't exist. Even if it is predetermined, a factor can always appear that will change the result to one degree or another. We can only talk about a certain probability with which the forecast is fulfilled.

When forecasting, one has to operate with a limited set of information. The larger it is, the more time it takes to process. The need for processing deliberately makes an instant response impossible. Even if it takes seconds to process, a lot can happen in seconds. And the more complex the methods involved, the greater the gap between the appearance of the initial data and the final result.

Another factor is that the behavior environment defined and determined by no means always. This forces us to resort to empirical research methods: first, we fix the prerequisites, and then we associate them with the consequences that have occurred. The time between cause and effect gives additional delay.

If the behavior of the environment does not depend on its past states, then its prediction is impossible - you never know what will happen in the next moment. But in practice, stable causal relationships still occur and exist, sometimes, from time immemorial.

Thus, the task is reduced to collecting the necessary information, empirical search for stable cause-and-effect relationships, and using the results in forecasting.

Formulation of the problem

Let's try to predict the direction of movement of the EURUSD rate in the FOREX market. We take history in the form of one-minute bars and try to predict: will the price go up or will the price go down? If there is no certainty in either, then we give an indefinite answer. The received answers are then compared with the real result and we find out whether the forecast was correct or not.

As a platform for implementation, the MetaTrader 4 or 5 strategy tester is suitable. The fifth version is more preferable, as it supports Object-Oriented Programming, but the fourth one can also be dispensed with.

Those who are familiar with the FOREX market and have dealt with Mechanical Trading Systems - Expert Advisors, know well what is at stake. The tester sequentially goes through the history, creating trading conditions close to reality and evaluates the effectiveness of the adviser.

When solving the problem, I implemented my tester in Java, which turned out to be justified for me.

As a result, it is necessary to draw a conclusion: is forecasting possible in the FOREX market and is the method of building chains justified on it.

Testing strategies

When testing, we determine the number of pips of minimum income (MinProfit), maximum loss (MaxLoss) and set the amount of time for which we want to see the result (FeedbackHours). The last parameter sets the delay between the appearance of the initial data and their use in forecasting. To approximate real conditions, we also take into account the spread (Spread).

The parameters can be varied in a wide range, MinProfit and MaxLoss can be taken different from each other. When solving the problem, the following parameter values ​​were chosen:

MinProfit - 200 pips
MaxLoss - 200 pips
FeedbackHours - 24*7 hours
Spread - 30 pips

The MinProfit and MaxLoss parameters are taken not too large so that the testing time is not too long. With these parameters, the strategy will resemble pipsing. Getting a stable income from pipsing is the dream of almost all traders. Let's try to help them.

The FeedbackHours parameter is chosen not too small, since with a smaller value, the result does not always have time to form. If we take into account that the goal is to look for long-term trends, then it is possible to safely take large values. However, by reducing the waiting time for the result, you can get an advantage in time.

Spread sets the commission for each operation. The traditional value was chosen, which is quite acceptable for solving the problem. If desired, it can even be taken as zero.

During testing, one-minute history for 2010-2011 was taken from InstaTrader and MetaQuotes servers. It turned out to be technically difficult for me to do testing in a wider range (more than two years).

Interpretation of results

The accepted values ​​set the probability of winning in case of a random price movement at the level of 17/43 (approximately 0.3953).

If the profitability of the Expert Advisor is close to this value, then we can say that the effectiveness of the method is zero. Such a result will indirectly indicate that, within the accepted parameters, the behavior of the EURUSD price in the FOREX market is absolutely random. To change the situation, you need to change the settings.

If the result obtained is less than this value, then the method should be guided exactly the other way around. That is, if the result is "Buy", then it is necessary to sell, if the result is "Sell", then it is necessary to buy.

If the result is more than 17/43, then we can say that the method is effective and its development can bring results.

But even if the probability of winning is more than 0.5, it would be a mistake to assume that the so-called “grail” has been found. A profitable method will spread very quickly and its advantages will be exhausted very quickly ( , ).

This, in fact, is the ultimate goal of this work. If statistical methods cease to justify themselves, then any possibility for speculation will disappear.

Rough estimate

First, a rough estimate is made. That is, at each step, the expert says “Buy” and “Sell” at the same time. The resulting payoff provides information about trends in price behavior. If the payoff is close to 0.3953, then we can talk about the lack of certainty. If it is more than 0.3953, then the price movement is subject to trends, if it is less, the movement is horizontal.

Moreover, if the deviation in one direction or another is large enough, then strategies will be justified in which MinProfit is not equal to MaxLoss.

A practical study showed that for 2010-2011 the winnings were at the level of 0.4250, which is better than the winnings at a random price by 0.0297. The increase in winnings is quite noticeable, and it was observed throughout the entire testing period.

A rough estimate was also made for the period from 2000 to 2011 inclusive, and a payoff of 0.4212 was obtained. That is, the price of EURUSD as a whole is subject to trends, sometimes to a greater extent, sometimes to a lesser extent.

Price analysis

We will conduct technical analysis, so we will study the form of price movement: bends, inclinations in one direction or another, at one angle or another. Many different indicators can be used, but in this case We use the Open price chain.

For example, let's assume that the current date is January 4, 2010 and the time is 23:58. At this time, the opening price was 1.44163. And in the previous minute the price was 1.44165, that is, the price changed by -2 points. A minute earlier, the price was 1.44161, that is, the price changed by +4 points. As a result, we get a chain: -2, +4, +3, +5, -6, +6, -2, +0, +3 ... Chains, if necessary, can be made long.

Similarly, you can perform fundamental analysis. To do this, we build chains from information coming from the news feed. It is obvious that fundamental analysis requires significant computing resources and more complex methods for constructing chains, so fundamental analysis until we do.

The resulting chains are taken as qualitative characteristics of the price. Next, we count them. In memory, we search for the longest chain that is observed at a given time. If nothing is found in memory, we consider a chain of length 1 (in this case: -1).

According to the found chain, we remember the final result (the price goes up, the price goes down, not defined). If a certain result is obtained for this chain, that is, the price always goes up or the price always goes down or is always undefined, then we leave it like that. Otherwise, we lengthen the chain by one and store the current result for it.

As a result, we get a database in which its behavior is known from the price configuration.

To evaluate the effectiveness, we will use the obtained database when trading. If there is a certain result in memory for the current chain, then we bet on it. As a result, for 2010-2011, the payoff was 0.4281, which is better than the result of a rough analysis by 0.0031 and better than the win at a random price by 0.0328.

The improvement is not very noticeable compared to the result of a rough analysis. This can be explained by the fact that a relatively small range of price movement is chosen - 200 pips, and the strategy resembles “pipsing”. On the other hand, this suggests that the chaining method may not be efficient enough and needs to be changed. In the meantime, we will be satisfied with the fact that throughout the entire testing period, the improvement in the result is observed steadily.

When tested on wider price movements, the EA shows more interesting results. Often even positive profitability is demonstrated.

However, at the stage of constructing chains, the effectiveness is not ensured; only a study of the price behavior is carried out.

Signal conditioning

It is possible that in one minute we have a signal to buy, and the next - to sell. Provided that the price has not changed much - what to believe?

Problem from the field of game theory. We try to understand which of the signals are correct and which are distracting or even false. As a result, it is necessary to outplay opponents, in this case, other FOREX market participants.

We coordinate according to the same principle: we build chains of the latest signals, take into account price changes, and collect winning statistics.

When testing for 2010-2011, a win rate of 0.4293 was obtained, which is better than with simple analysis prices by 0.0012.

The gain increase is almost negligible. At times, there was a very poor result, much worse than not only the result of a rough estimate, but also the result at a completely random price, that is, less than 0.3953. Sometimes even a result of about 0.3 was noted. But sometimes there were very successful periods when the result, with such a high commission, was even at the level of 0.5. Hence the conclusion - sometimes the expert beats the market, and sometimes the market beats the expert.

When testing on wider price movements, the final result may turn out to be even worse. It is obvious that in this case more complex combinations come into play, which take away speculative money. But the picture is the same - at times there is a significant gain, and at times - a significant loss.

Obviously, the algorithm chosen for solving the problem is not perfect, but sometimes it can improve the result.

Signal selection

The selection of signals has not yet been implemented, but there is an idea in which direction to move. It is necessary to calculate the mathematical expectation of winning and choose those chains, the expectation of winning which gives hope for the maximum result. To do this, we collect information on all encountered chains, and weed out those of them, the winnings of which are below a certain threshold.

An attempt was made to make a simple screening. A certain parameter is calculated, and if it is less (or more) than the average value, then the signal is filtered out. In some cases, it was possible to obtain a consistently winning strategy. But not enough has been done so far to talk about the maximum result.

Observations have shown that the identification of deliberately unfavorable conditions is quite possible. Quite often the strategy forced the expert to be passive when there was a big unprofitability.

Crisis management

Sometimes it happens that the wrong decision was made earlier and this became known later. If there is still time to correct the situation, then this should be used, for example, to close the position before the losses become too great.

Doing prevention

At this stage, we collect statistics on emerging crisis situations and avoid them in advance.

An example of a profitable strategy

To demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, I will try to propose a strategy with a positive mathematical expectation of winning. Let's take the following parameter values:

MinProfit - 300 pips
MaxLoss - 2700 pips
FeedbackHours - 24*7*4 hours
Spread - 30 pips

Due to the fact that in 2007 the result was not formed too often for 4 weeks (the price fluctuated for a long time in the corridor of less than 600 pips), 2007 was calculated based on FeedbackHours - 24*7*8 hours.

Rough estimate

With this strategy, you can win only when the price moves horizontally and moves with a swing of mostly more than 600 pips, but less than 5400 pips. The results show that predominantly horizontal price movement was observed only in the post-crisis year of 2009.

Price analysis

Price analysis provides insight into behavior. If the behavior does not change over time, then the strategy will be winning. It can be seen from the results that until 2008 inclusive, price behavior changes almost constantly, which means that strategies based on the repetition of movement led to a loss.

Perhaps this was the cause of the 2008 crisis, when financial institutions suffered huge losses and when several of the largest banks went bankrupt. Since 2009, there has been a predictability in the price movement, which tends to increase over time. This may be due to the fact that the scale of economic stimulus is also growing at this time.

Signal conditioning

By making signal matching, we are trying to outplay other market participants. The attempt turns out to be successful and manages to reach a positive profitability based on results for 12 years. In the post-crisis years, consistently positive profitability is also observed.

Signal selection

As mentioned above, the signal selection algorithm was not implemented, but a simple screening was implemented, in which those situations that were less common than usual were screened out. This made it possible to improve the result, but according to the results of several years, nevertheless, losses were observed. Especially high unprofitability was observed in the pre-crisis year of 2007.

You can show even better results. To do this, you can try to take, for example, the size of the minimum profit of 200 pips, and the maximum loss of 1800 pips, but more research is required to find the optimal strategy. If crisis management is carried out, then one can try to reduce losses by increasing total income.

It should also be taken into account that in this evaluation work, the calculation of many important characteristics for a trader, for example, drawdown, has not been broken through. However, there is a noticeable positive mathematical expectation of profit.

conclusions

The movement of the EURUSD price in the FOREX market is not accidental and its behavior, in most cases, tends. This speaks to its predictability.

The method of constructing chains makes it possible to improve the result, but in the described form it is imperfect. But, despite the imperfection, chains allow you to create strategies with a positive mathematical expectation of profit.

Obviously, the search for causal relationships by statistical methods is justified, but its widespread use will lead to far-reaching consequences. It will be possible not only to identify and level trends in a timely manner, but also to shape them.