Russians have become more afraid of nuclear war. Constant fear of war, terrorism I am afraid of nuclear war

Increasingly, the world media, experts, historians, analysts and politicians are raising the topic of a possible world war in which the USA, Russia and China will participate. There is an opinion that war between great powers using conventional weapons is inevitable. And you shouldn’t be particularly afraid of her. Moreover, there are also advantages: war accelerates progress. Some people are also sure that there is no need to fear even a nuclear war.

Rick Searle, associate professor of political science and Delaware Valley College writer, analyst, and Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies (IEET) fellow, asked the question: “What makes war between the United States and China or Russia inevitable?” The scientist tried to give the answer in an article on the website.

The scientist reminds that there is a dangerous and not new idea, which is still talked about today: they say that a conventional war between great powers is inevitable, and it poses a much smaller threat to the existence of humanity than someone thinks. Moreover, it is even necessary for the progress of humanity.

The emergence of this argument in favor of war replaces previous claims that the concept of war is becoming obsolete, since history is characterized by trends towards prosperity and peace. However, they said exactly the same thing in the 19th century. There were many who argued that war was becoming unnecessary because peaceful global trade made it possible to make profits where war had previously been necessary. Opponents of these “peaceful” ideologists, in turn, stated that war was the main vector of human progress and that without it people would degrade.

An argument with clearly racist overtones, isn't it? It is precisely because of racism that such statements about the degradation of humanity without war are not accepted in intellectual circles. But instead, the war was associated with technological development: supposedly without war in general and great war For power in particular, people are doomed to a technological dead end. For example, Ian Morris wrote about this in his book “War What is it Good For?”

For some reason, supporters of such technological “progress” do not take into account one simple thing: a conflict between great powers could lead to the tragic prospect of an exchange of nuclear strikes. Perhaps war is spurring progress, but it is better to move forward at a snail’s pace than to return to the Stone Age through such conflicts.

However, some people also make the argument that a nuclear war will not completely destroy the civilization of earthlings. But it is unlikely that the broad masses will believe in this idea. Another thing is the spread of the idea that great powers could collide with each other and yet somehow miraculously avoid using the full power of their conventional and nuclear forces even with monstrous losses.

This is written, for example, by Peter W. Singer and August Cole's recent novel Ghost Fleet: A novel of the Third World War, in which tells a fictional story about the Third World War using exclusively traditional weapons. The war is fought primarily at sea and is between the United States, China and Russia.

This book has been the subject of many studies. Perhaps it actually shows quite well what war will look like in the next ten to fifteen years. If only its authors are right, in the wars of the future unmanned vehicles They will operate underground, on land, in the air and at sea - in short, everywhere. Military operations will be conducted with the help of artificial intelligence.

Cyber ​​attacks will become a natural theater of war in the future. And outer space too.

In World War III, advances in neuroscience and bioelectronics will be used, at least where “enhanced and brutal” interrogations will be required.

The war would begin with a Chinese or Russian attack on US satellites, and this attack would “effectively blind” the US military. Some American equipment is vulnerable because elements of its devices are manufactured in Chinese factories.

As for the war at sea, everything in the book is “standard”: a surprise attack by the Chinese and Russians on US forces in the Pacific Ocean. Most of the American fleet is destroyed and Hawaii is captured.

The problem with the authors is that they are not aware of something. Are people able to control such conflicts? Without thinking about this, the authors do not remind that everything possible should be done to avoid conflicts. The book depicts a conflict bottled up in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. Neither the possibility of an exchange of nuclear strikes nor strategic bombings are taken into account. But can this really happen? Rick Searle strongly doubts it.

The uniqueness of Herodotus's historical works is that at that time, for the first time, one people tried to actually understand their enemies. “The Greeks, as far as I know, were the first and only ones here,” the analyst notes.

In the book "Ghost Fleet" the Chinese are reduced to the level of some kind of cardboard villains, with whom someone like D. Bond must fight. American control of the Pacific Ocean is fully justified, Washington's "heroes" are declared paragons of virtue.

The weakness of such book “prophecies” is that their authors lack genuine imagination. The motives, background, and “deep historical grievances” that would likely lead the Chinese or Russians to any such conflict are not even outlined in the book.

And this is where Rick Searle sees the main problem - “lack of understanding.”

It is this misunderstanding that makes big wars humanity, if not inevitable, then, in any case, more probable.

Many foreign experts, we would add, are now hinting that the leading powers are heading towards war right now. However, it is still possible to avoid it.

Recently, one expert considered a workaround military situation in relation to China and the USA.

On the path of coexistence of two states - China and the USA - in the international arena there are many “Thucydides traps,” says political scientist S.N., an employee of the Thucydides Center at the Free University of Berlin and the American School of Classical Studies in Athens. Jaffe. He shared his opinion with The National Interest magazine (translation source - website.

The “trap” discussed in the article is described by Thucydides in “History of the Peloponnesian War”. The two sides of the conflict, the Delian League (Athens) and the Peloponnesian League (Sparta), found themselves hostage to an inevitable war caused by Sparta's fear of the growing power of Athens. Nowadays, theorists use the concept of “trap” to describe the relationship between the United States (“governing power”) and the PRC (“rising power”), notes RIA “”.

Falling into the “Thucydides Trap” for the United States and China does not mean that war is inevitable, but it does mean that tension in Chinese-American relations will heat up due to the emergence of attractive and dangerous interpretations of “national interest.”

“The Peloponnesian War became inevitable (or, in other words, necessary) when Athens and Sparta no longer saw an alternative to it,” Jaffe points out. In his opinion, the United States and China should try to avoid just such a scenario given the special interconnectedness of their development paths.

According to the scientist, Mr. Obama and Comrade Xi may fall into the “Thucydides trap” if they refuse to recognize the deep contradictions that cannot be avoided (and this is not already possible) due to a change in the balance in relations between the two states.

The same thing, we would add, may also be characteristic of the deteriorated relations between the United States and the Russian Federation. If Washington refuses to recognize the changed geopolitical situation and continues to call Russia a “regional power,” then people from the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, as well as from NATO, where Washington plays the first fiddle, will not be able to avoid the “Thucydides trap.” Russia will also fall into it if it keeps in mind “deep historical grievances” and does not insist on diplomacy.

Oh, the “trap” would have disappeared if the White House had tried, following the model not of Thucydides, but of Herodotus, to “understand its enemies”! But American strategists are accustomed to planning not understanding, but denial of everything that does not fit into their hegemonic doctrine. In addition, understanding the enemy is too difficult and fraught with concessions; It’s another thing to kill and become the winner, thereby confirming the status of a “great power.”

This is why Professor Searle writes that miscommunication makes the big wars of the future more likely.

I decided to contact you for the following reason. The year 2012 has arrived. On the Internet, as well as in literature (magazines, books, newspapers) it is written that he is the last. My fears and phobias are: I am afraid of the 3rd World War and nuclear war and conflicts. I used to be afraid of supervolcanoes, but now they have faded into the background.
The reason is that a lot of predictions are written on this terrible topic.
Information is also being spread on the Internet and in books that there will be a Third World War. Or it has already begun. I still don’t understand if it started at all. The years of its beginning are named: 2009, 2010, 2011 (that is, the Third World War has already begun). There are other dates for the start of World War 3: 2014 (according to Vanga), 2016, 2018.
Let's get straight to the point.
1. There are a lot of predictions on this topic in the media (especially on the Internet!!!), as well as in books and magazines. There is especially a lot about this in modern literature. The fact is that I take everything (both predictions and prophecies) very close to my heart.

For example, a very scary thing is being written, and I don’t even know what to think:
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Maybe we are living in vain?
But the answer is here:
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“I believe that the author’s concerns about a possible nuclear war are irrelevant. Nuclear parity does not allow unleashing nuclear war, and besides, EVERYONE already understands that there will be NO WINNERS in a nuclear war!
In the event of a massive nuclear conflict, the so-called “Nuclear Night” (“Nuclear Winter”) may occur and the entire biosphere of the Earth will perish and humanity will not survive, the scenario for this has been “calculated” by meteorologists and geophysicists.
During massive and close in time explosions of several thousand nuclear warheads (nuclear conflict), in addition to shock waves from explosions near each explosion and radiation damage to significant areas of the planet's surface, another process later comes into play - heavy-duty dust-steam - smoke pollution by microaerosols of the planet's atmosphere.

Both “Nuclear Night” and “Nuclear Winter” are not a myth, but a reliable scenario of what will happen to the Earth if humanity commits nuclear suicide of life, and this is a GUARANTEE that this WILL NOT HAPPEN.”

I don’t even know how to feel about the diary (that is, the predictions) of this young man (17 years old) and about the French girl who predicted that there would be a nuclear explosion. The parents “laugh” (they were especially “surprised” by the boy’s age of 17).

If you type “Third World War”, “Nuclear War” in Yandex, you will find a lot of sites on this topic. If you don't type anything, you won't find anything.
I liked the conference, but these materials are outdated, and the prediction is fresh.
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Conference "NUCLEAR WEAPONS: IS THE WORLD THREATENED BY A NEW WAR?"
As you can see, it was written by Scientific capital letters tongue. My dad and I really liked it.

Other information is very outdated, but the predictions are fresh.
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This information is not entirely up to date because it was written 10 years ago.

Now the most important thing. As you can see, there is a war going on in Syria. And many different prophets and predictors write (and have written before) that the 3rd World War has begun or will begin.

Also in “live journals” blogs there are some different people wrote Operation "Big Thunderstorm" will begin:
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Dear psychologists!
Let's throw out all the predictions. Do you think, based on the current political situation, is it possible to use nuclear weapons in the near future and are nuclear wars possible and will the situations described here come true (we “turn a blind eye” to any predictions)?

Who do you think are the predictors Michel Nostradamus, Vanga, Casey and other “foretellers” (modern and who lived before)? And was Nostradamus right?
After all, Vanga predicted the Second World War and the death of the Kursk (submarine).

And one person I met on the Internet wrote to me that THERE WILL BE NO NUCLEAR WAR!!!
I don’t even know who to believe (the parents laugh at the young man’s “diary”, but I take everything at face value).
Thank you in advance for your answer!
Sincerely, Alexey Vladimirovich.

Question for a psychologist:

Hello. My name is Marina, I'm 27 years old. We've been married and planning children for 2 years now, but it hasn't worked out yet.

The problem is that my head is filled with bad thoughts regarding our future. I am constantly afraid of the outbreak of war, afraid of terrorist attacks, afraid of the end of the world. A lot of people die lately, in many countries there are bombings, wars, terrorist attacks. I am very ashamed of myself, because I understand that it is stupid to think about this, that if it is already destined, then the situation cannot be avoided... But I continue to think about it and paint myself into a corner. Now I’m afraid to even just go into search browsers and read it by accident bad news. My husband calms me down as best he can, but he doesn’t help me. The situation is aggravated by the fact that I can’t get pregnant, constantly under the supervision of a doctor, I’ve already started to think that maybe God doesn’t want me to get pregnant because something bad will happen soon. Help me please, I want to live in peace, rejoice and enjoy. I'm tired of being afraid of everything, not sleeping at night from thoughts.... What also scares me is that now they very often mention the end of the world, that these troubles are its harbingers. How to let yourself understand that all this is stupid? And how to forget about all the bad things? This is very difficult to live with. Sometimes it even gets to the point that I have my passports ready before going to bed just in case. It’s already scary that I might start preparing clothes for my bag and first aid kit. I'm already afraid of myself. I'm afraid of losing loved ones. Especially after the events in Ukraine, so close to our country. After all, our president is also not eternal, all politics can change, people are all very angry now, what if we can’t get rid of terrorism? What if hostility between Russia and the United States intensifies? What if the third one starts? world war? I always have these thoughts with me. We live in a city where there is a lot of dangerous production, and last year there were already attempts to attack with homemade missiles. How else can you calm down after this? If it's already so close... I can spend the whole day listening to the radio and the news, always waiting for bad news. I really want to start the morning with good news, I really want to live in peace, think only about the good. But it doesn't work.

A psychologist answers the question.

Hello Marina!

You are absolutely right about the negative information that comes out of many media outlets. At the same time, the “end of the world” has been expected for 1000 years, that’s how they read the Bible, and that’s how they expect it. IN troubled times fears intensify. To live more peacefully, you need to live as if it could end tomorrow. If you have desires and dreams, you need to fulfill them; if you want a baby, then you need to go with your husband to a beautiful place, definitely by the sea, don’t watch the news and enjoy only nature. This will help you realize how huge the planet is and how beautiful your future child will see it. The whole world is not only horrors that are shown in huge concentration on the Internet and the news. Since your fear and concern for yourself and your loved ones is rather a fear of living, you need to watch channels about nature, historical and documentary, psychological films in order to expand your understanding of how phobias are formed in society, why politicians and financiers need this that everything passes and humanity continues to live. Start doing what you loved to do most as a child: sign up for painting, dancing, etc. courses. Only in creativity can a person give others his unique vision of the world; share your successes with loved ones and friends. Your internal tension will go away and you and your husband will definitely be able to conceive a baby! Also track your thoughts, as soon as they appear you need to stop (literally) and switch your attention to something else (this is especially easy to do when you have some creative ideas). Also try doing this exercise:

Answer the questions (write down):

What happens if this negative thought is true?

What won't happen if this negative thought is true?

What happens if this negative thought is not true?

Madeleine Sprenneter: I grew up in the shadow of the threat of nuclear war

American writer Madeleine Sprenneter writes that an entire generation of Americans is forced to live in fear of the nuclear threat.

I wouldn't fear nuclear war, but I grew up in St. Louis during the height of the Cold War arms race with the Soviet Union. The nuns at school showed children how to duck and hide in the event of a nuclear attack. We were taught to hate the USSR. In my area there was talk about building bomb shelters in our backyards. But they were too expensive to build and only a few people could fit there. So I was very worried.

We had a basement, or rather a tiny cellar for storing fruit. Maybe it can be used as a shelter? But how will we live there without food and water? And is it possible to wash there? And if we dare to leave our shelter, what will happen to us? Will we all be destroyed by radiation? That's what the sensitive eight-year-old girl was thinking.

When the Cuban nuclear crisis began in the early 1960s, I was a sophomore in college. At that time we narrowly avoided nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union. In the mid-1960s and 1970s, during the Vietnam War, the United States seriously considered the use of nuclear weapons. Then, in the early 1980s, Ronald Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative, known as Star Wars.

Born in 1942, even before the application atomic bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, I grew up in the shadow of the threat of nuclear war. But I dealt with my worries, especially after Reagan and Gorbachev signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. But I was never completely free from this fear.

After the collapse Soviet Union and the signing of the “nuclear deal” between the US and Iran, my fear seemed to completely disappear. But his ghost is still with me.

Now the United States is not afraid of growing power and influence Russian President Putin. Our president is cozying up to Russia while the risk of escalating war with Kim Jong-un increases. Although Trump once said that a meeting with the North Korean leader would be an “honor” for him.

Now Trump insults Kim Jong-un, who, in return, insults Trump. The US President's security advisers are trying to use diplomatic opportunities and also resort to economic sanctions against North Korea. But these measures do not bother Kim Jong-un. Its people starved for national identity and “sovereignty,” and Pyongyang is willing to make that sacrifice again.

Now, every time Trump insults North Korea, Kim Jong-un conducts another military missile test. Stupid and childish words are one thing, but concrete actions are a completely different matter.

This summer I was visiting friends in the San Francisco Bay Area. I was so scared by this crazy and unnecessary escalation of tension between the US and North Korea that first thing in the morning I turned on CNN to find out if we were already in a nuclear war.

I live in Minnesota and I doubt Kim Jong Un would send his missiles here. Most likely, his first target will be the densely populated West Coast: Seattle, Los Angeles or San Francisco. Some of my best friends and colleagues, as well as my daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren, live in this “nuclear risk” zone.

We are now seeing natural disasters the likes of which the world has never seen before: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the earthquake in Mexico. Have we not had enough of these upheavals? Do we really need nuclear war? Does President Trump really think that what's happening right now doesn't concern him?

I wish Trump's advisers would convince him to stop tweeting alarmist messages. And ordinary US citizens must begin to act to prevent a catastrophe.

On the morning of July 10, when news feeds appeared that the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and the US Air Force had successfully tested the new B61-12 nuclear bomb, 35-year-old Ekaterina Slavina was seized with panic. The woman again began to re-read the instructions for surviving a nuclear explosion, found on the Internet. From the memo it followed that you could still survive if you took refuge in the basement of the house and stocked up on clothes and food.

Catherine’s fear of nuclear war began a year ago, when an armed conflict broke out in Donbass.

“At first I was simply afraid that the war would spread to Russia, and then one day a colleague at work started talking about geopolitics and the third world war, in which nuclear weapons would definitely be used,” says Ekaterina. “I went online to read about nuclear war and was horrified. The missiles’ approach time ranges from 7 to 12 minutes.”

Ekaterina is not alone. In January of this year, he published a sociological study on the fears of Russians. According to this survey

The number of Russians who are afraid of the possible outbreak of a nuclear war has more than doubled compared to 2013: from 8 to 17%.

At the same time, according to the Center for the Study of Mass Electronic Consciousness (CMES), which conducted a survey in March of this year, a quarter of Russians fully accept the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the event of an invasion of foreign troops in Crimea. As noted in the study, the most peaceful among Russians were people aged 45 to 54 years. Among them, the percentage of respondents who do not allow the use of nuclear weapons in any state of affairs was 43%.

According to the director of the Phoenix Center for New Sociology and the Study of Practical Politics, Alexander Tarasov, young people simply do not understand the consequences of a nuclear war.

“The older generation at school learned in basic military training what a nuclear war is and what its consequences could be,” says Tarasov. “These people represent the scale of the damage, including radiation, from which it is impossible to escape. They know what nuclear winter is, and everyone was intimidated by it.

The expert emphasizes that similar sociological research, and they also showed that people who grew up during the " cold war", are more aware of the consequences of a nuclear conflict.

Young people don’t have this, Tarasov adds:

“It seems like everyone heard that they blew up nuclear bombs in Japan, but humanity is alive, civilization is alive, which means everything is not so scary.”

Ekaterina Slavina does not understand people who are not afraid of the threat of nuclear war. “I’m not even scared for myself, but for my loved ones and parents,” says Ekaterina. Last year, she even began to specifically find out where the nearest bomb shelters from her work and home were. “We have a basement under an office building, there’s actually parking for cars, but you can hide from the first strike,” says Ekaterina. “But you’ll have to run from home to the metro.”

Slavina also trains her parents to protect themselves from a possible nuclear threat. Last year, in the fall, Moscow held civil defense exercises, and Ekaterina forced her family to take part in them.

But Slavina’s husband, Anatoly, refuses to train.

When Catherine began to convince him to stock up on stewed meat and buckwheat “just in case,” he took her to a psychologist.

The psychologist had several conversations with her, prescribed sedatives and advised her to stop watching the news. However, according to Slavina, the fear of a nuclear war periodically returns to her.

The State Budgetary Institution “Moscow Psychological Assistance Service to the Population” says that in last year anxiety about the likelihood of war among Muscovites has become a kind of background against which other phobias and psychological problems flourish rapidly.

“As a rule, people come to us with their personal problems and family troubles,” says a center specialist. “The main phobias are the fear of losing a job, anxiety for the future of children. No one directly complains about fear of war. But it should be noted that

anxiety about the war in Ukraine is a common refrain among almost all the people who come to us.

This is not the main problem - it’s a background problem, but it affects psychological health.”

At the same time, all ages and even occupations are submissive to anxiety, psychologists summarize. “Being a journalist, I am constantly in the information field, so it would seem that I am not susceptible to panic in connection with the events taking place in the world - after all, you get used to the fact that something happens every day,” says Muscovite Olga. - Especially in our time and especially in our country. But I will never forget the evening when the Boeing fell. The world turned upside down at that moment, and these images from the crash site...

That night I couldn’t sleep for the first time, it seemed that a nuclear war could start tomorrow, that this was the last straw. We seriously discussed what to do then, whether it was worth going far to the village and how to live then.”

While city dwellers practice running to the nearest metro station with a stopwatch and look for a secluded house in the village, the wealthiest prefer to provide themselves with turnkey security.

The director of the Spetsgeoproekt company says that they are constantly approached by wealthy clients living in elite villages near Moscow with requests to build and design a private shelter - a reinforced concrete bunker.

“Since 2003, our company has been designing, constructing and maintaining civil structures of type “A” - civil defense shelters,” says Andreev. “But the main demand for private shelters began in 2012.”

Among the customers there are large businessmen and politicians.

According to Andreev, the bunkers that the company is building are dual-use objects.

“Some clients hold business negotiations there because it’s impossible to listen in, others set up galleries there,” says the entrepreneur. “But in the event of a natural disaster or war, this facility can become a safe haven.”

According to Andreev, you can live safely in the shelter for more than a month. Moreover, all bunkers are equipped with autonomous air ventilation. As well as all special monitoring sensors, including radiation ones.

Meanwhile, the capital's infrastructure is less and less adapted to the “nuclear scenario”. Many shelters are now used as warehouses and parking lots. Besides,