Vrp value. See what “GRP” is in other dictionaries. Gross product: features of the indicator

2. GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT (GRP)
2.1. BASIC CONCEPTS

The calculation of the gross regional product (GRP) indicator is carried out by territorial state statistics bodies as part of the implementation of elements of the system of national accounts (SNA) at the regional level. The calculation methodology was developed in the central office of the State Statistics Committee of Russia and is uniform for all regions.

The system of national accounts is a detailed statistical model, including a system of interrelated macro-level indicators. The SNA exists as an international standard recommended for implementation in various countries by the UN Statistical Commission, IMF, IBRD, OECD and the Commission of the European Communities. Currently, most countries in the world are implementing the version of the SNA adopted by the listed organizations in 1993. SNA-93 is also being implemented in Russia.

The SNA includes a set of statistical tables called accounts, each of which characterizes a certain stage of the economic cycle: production, education and income distribution, final consumption expenditures and savings. The central macroeconomic indicator around which the rest of the system is essentially built is the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP can be calculated using different methods: production method, income method and expenditure method. The calculation of GDP by each of the listed methods is carried out in the corresponding accounts of the system.

In the Russian SNA, the greatest attention is paid to calculating GDP using the production method. In terms of production, GDP is the sum of gross value added created during an accounting period by resident economic units.

The SNA in Russia began to be implemented at the federal level. However, regions also feel the need for a modern statistical generalizing model, focused on the requirements of a market economy and compatible with the federal SNA and international standards. Due to a number of features inherent in the regional economy and information limitations faced by territorial state statistics bodies, the system of national accounts cannot currently be fully implemented at the regional level. Nevertheless, the State Statistics Committee of Russia is carrying out systematic work to introduce at the regional level calculations of a number of general indicators, methodologically based on the principles and definitions of the SNA. Chief among them is the GRP indicator.

In terms of its economic content, the GRP indicator is a close regional analogue of the GDP indicator calculated by the production method at the federal level. GRP is also defined as the sum of gross value added produced by resident units during the reporting period, only in this case we are talking about resident units of the regional economy.

Gross value added, in turn, is defined as the difference between the output of products and services at basic prices and intermediate consumption. The methodology for calculating this indicator at the regional and federal levels in most cases is the same. However, there is a significant difference between the indicators of GDP (at the federal level) and GRP (at the regional level). Individual elements of Russia's GDP currently cannot be calculated at the regional level or distributed among Russian regions. Therefore, they are included in the calculation only for Russia as a whole.

The total GRP calculated for all regions of the Russian Federation differs from Russia’s GDP by the amount of added value:

Other non-market services financed from the federal budget, information on which is not available at the regional level;

Services of financial intermediaries (especially banks), whose activities are rarely limited to certain regions;

The output in current prices of industries providing non-market services is calculated on the basis of data from federal treasuries on the execution of the federal budget in the region and data from regional financial authorities on local budget expenditures, as well as annual ratios of the volume of output of non-market services (including expenditures of extra-budgetary funds) and the total volume of expenditures federal and local budgets in relevant areas in each region.

When carrying out monthly GRP calculations, in the absence of operational information on production in a particular sector of the economy, the general scheme for calculating output and intermediate consumption is as follows:

Gross output of this industry in the previous period

the corresponding year at current prices for that period

multiply by

index of physical output volume of a given industry

in % to the previous period

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
=Gross output of the industry of the current period in prices

previous period

Intermediate consumption commercial enterprises are determined on the basis of the output of a full range of enterprises and the share of intermediate consumption in the output of the relevant industry, calculated according to the form “Information on the costs of production and sales of products (works, services).”

Intermediate consumption of goods should be valued at buyer prices existing at the time of their consumption in the production process, and not at the time of acquisition of goods. At the same time, the indicator of intermediate consumption obtained on the basis of accounting data, as a rule, does not correspond to this assessment principle. Determining its value directly from accounting data, especially during periods of high inflation, can lead to a significant underestimation of intermediate consumption and, accordingly, to an overestimation of profits by the amount of changes in the cost of goods received for intermediate consumption from inventories as a result of changes in prices while they are in inventories. Therefore, a corresponding adjustment to the amount of intermediate consumption (calculated according to accounting data) is necessary, which consists of revaluing the material component of intermediate consumption taking into account the average change in prices during the storage period of inventories (see "Methodological provisions on statistics", issue 1, Goskomstat of Russia, M., 1996, p. 266 "Determination of the holding profit (loss) indicator."

The scheme for calculating the share of intermediate consumption in output is as follows:

Calculation of output and intermediate consumption
by industry___________________________

The calculation is performed based on the data from the "Information about
costs of production and sales of products (works, services)
enterprises (organizations) for ______________________ 199 years"

at current prices, million rubles

Indicator name

№
lines

A source of information

Volume of products (works, services)
in current prices
(excluding VAT)
cost, excise taxes and similar
gical obligatory payments

F., p.01, gr. 3

Production costs and
sales of products

F., p.03, gr. 3

Material costs

f. , p.04, gr. 3

deductions for reproduction
mineral resource base

F., p.07, gr. 3

deductions for reclamation
lands

F., p.08, gr. 3

payment for wood, vacation
on the vine

F., p.09, gr. 3

payment for water withdrawn
enterprises from
water management systems

F., p.10, gr. 3

major renovation

f. , p.16, gr. 3

Material costs,
included in the intermediate
consumption

page 3 -(page 4+5+6+7+8)
(this table)

Rent

f. , p.26, gr. 3

Entertainment expenses

f. , p.30, gr. 3

Payment for third party services
organizations

F., p.35, gr. 3

Other costs

f. , p.48ґ k **), gr. 3

Intermediate consumption

p.9+10+11+12+13
(this table)

Specific gravity of intermediate
consumption in volume
products, in%

Page 14: page 1x100 (of this table)

_________________
*) The volume of products (works, services) should be increased by the amount of subsidies for products in those industries where they are present, but are not included in the volume of production.

**) k is the share of intermediate consumption in “other costs”.

The scheme for calculating intermediate consumption has some industry-specific features.

If there is no data to determine the share of intermediate consumption in output, then the share of intermediate consumption is calculated based on the corresponding ratios that developed in the last available period.

Since the form in 1 year. was developed on a cumulative basis, then by calculating intermediate consumption for the first half of the year and knowing the amount of intermediate consumption for the first quarter, the difference can be obtained as intermediate consumption for the second quarter; the calculation for the third and fourth quarters is carried out according to a similar scheme.

Intermediate consumption by month is calculated based on the share of intermediate consumption in the annual or quarterly release of the relevant industries with expert adjustment to take into account the seasonal characteristics of each month.

Gross value added for each industry at basic prices is calculated as the difference between output at basic prices and intermediate consumption of these industries.

The following industry classification is currently used.

Industries producing goods

industry

Agriculture

forestry

Production

Non-productive

trade (wholesale, including trade in means of production, retail) and
catering

blanks

information and computing services

real estate transactions

general commercial activities to ensure the functioning of the market

geology and subsoil exploration, geodetic and hydrometeorological services

non-production types of consumer services for the population

insurance

science and scientific service

education

Culture and art

control

producing non-market services:

organizations serving agriculture

housing sector

science and scientific service

health, physical education and social security

education, culture and art

Page 2 of 2

The indicator - gross regional product (GRP) - is used to characterize the results of production in the region, to assess the level of economic development, the rate of economic growth and analyze labor productivity. Total GRP is the value of all final goods and services produced in the region during the year. According to the Keynesian model, the total GRP is calculated using the following formula:

VPP = C + I + S + E – M, (1)

where, C – consumption; I – investments; S – regional and municipal expenses; E – export; M – import.

Formula (1) shows what economic growth in a country depends on and how it can be influenced. The main source of GDP growth is consumption (C) and investment (I). To stimulate consumer demand and investment levels, the central bank lowers interest rates and the government reduces taxes. An increase in regional and municipal spending (S) also leads to an increase in GDP. To analyze labor productivity and compare regions, GRP per capita is used, which is determined by dividing the total GRP by the population of the region. We examined 80 regions of Russia for 2012-2013. .

As a result of using the principal component method, the greatest influence is exerted by specific factors: I, C, S, E, M, which are arranged in descending order of variations. Variation refers to dispersion and standard deviation. Influencing factors are independent indicators on the right side of the equation.

For overall GRP, the following regression equation was constructed, which is significant at the 5% level:

GRP= exp(5.136+0.000001 INV_OK+0.000076 UCH-0.000307 ACP+0.0095 DOC-0.00008 Z_NIR +0.000013 Z_TEHN) with correlation coefficient R = 0.82,

where INV_OK is the volume of investment in fixed capital; UCH – number of personnel engaged in scientific research; ACP - admission and graduation from graduate school: DOC - admission and graduation from doctoral studies: Z_NIR - expenses for scientific research; Z_TEHN – costs of technological innovation.

An increase in INV_OK, UCH, DOC, Z_TEHN has a positive effect. The greatest effect comes from increasing the number of doctors of science.

Specific incomes in the regions of Russia were discussed in the article. Regions were divided into clusters. All regions were divided into 4 classes. For each cluster, significant regression equations were constructed.

The influence of per capita food consumption in the regions was discussed in the article. In the constructed regression equation, the factors that have a positive impact on GRP per capita are: average per capita annual consumption of meat, milk, vegetable oil, potatoes and vegetables. Factors that have a negative impact on GRP are: consumption of eggs, sugar and bread.

A comparison of the state of education and gross regional product is discussed in the article. Based on the constructed regression equations, we can draw conclusions: with an increase in the number of students by 1 person out of 10 thousand people, the specific value of GRP per capita in the region will increase by 11.5 rubles; with an increase in investment in education by 1 ruble for each resident of the region, the specific value of GRP will increase by 16.3 rubles. If investments in education in “average income” regions increase by 1 ruble, then GRP per capita increases by 11.69 rubles.

Equations of demographic indicators depending on income and GRP are given in the article. The article provides a clustering of regions by the share of the active population, the unemployed, the share of employees and average per capita income. The volumes of exports and imports in the regions have a slight impact on GRP, which can be observed from the coefficients of the constructed regression equation:

GRP = exp(5.064-0.00323 IND_P+0.0013 IND_CX+0.000001 E-0.000002 M-0.0112 INF +0.0244 UEA) (2)

with correlation coefficient R = 0.75,

where IND_P is the industrial production index; IND_CX – agricultural production index; E – specific export; M specific import; INF – inflation index; UEA is the level of economic activity of the population.

Regression equation (2) is significant at the 0.05 level, but the residuals of the equation (the difference between the values ​​of the equation and the statistical data) do not correspond to the normal distribution law.

Literature

1. Plotnitsky, M.I., Lobkovich E.I., Mutalimov M.G. and etc. Macroeconomics: Textbook. M.: New knowledge, 2002. 462 p.
2. Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators. 2013: Stat. Sat. // Rosstat. M., 2014. 990 p.
3. Magnus F.R., Katyshev P.K., Peresetsky A.A. Econometrics: Textbook. M.: Delo, 2005. 504 p.
4. Ignatiev V.M. Income and demographic indicators of the population in the regions // Economics. Control. Finance: Sat. articles. Kyiv: Economist. 2013. pp. 68-72.
5. Ignatiev V.M. Consumption of food products by the population of the regions // Strategy for sustainable development of regions of Russia: collection of articles. articles. Novosibirsk, 2015. No. 25. P. 132–137.
6. Ignatiev V.M., Eroshina E.A., Zemkova A.S. Comparison of the state of education and gross regional product / Development of scientific thought in the modern world: current issues, prospects, innovations: collection. articles. Rostov-on-Don: Scientific Research Center “Summa-Rerum”, 2014. P.78-83.
7. Istomina K.S.
8. Ignatiev V.M., Bakanova S.A. Polarization of Russian regions by employment and income // Nauka i inowacja. Pezemysl: Science and studio. 2013. Vol. 3. P. 15-18.
9. Ignatiev V.M., Borisova D.M. Forecasting employment of the region's population // Science, technology and education. 2015. No. 3(9).P. 40-43.
10. Ignatiev V.M., Chebotareva A.Yu. Factors of innovation and its Ishikawa diagram // Science, technology and education. Ivanovo, 2014. No. 4. P.21–24.
11. Istomina K.S. The influence of indicators on the birth rate in the regions // Bulletin of Science and Education. 2015. No. 2(4). pp. 60-64.

The economic status of each subject of the Russian Federation makes it relevant to use a variety of tools to assess economic well-being, financial balance and competitive conditions not only in the domestic but also in the world market. These tools are extremely necessary for the implementation of effective federal policy, which is aimed at eliminating interregional imbalances and strengthening the integrity of the economy and politics. The independence of the regions leads to the actualization of regional policy and to the significance of such an indicator as the regional gross product.

Information support using GRP

Prosperity is becoming a call to develop regional management solutions with modern approaches to information support and economic feasibility. The optimal basis for analyzing the characteristics of a complex market economy is the system of national accounts, or SNA. At the regional level, the SNA appears in the SRS format (system of regional accounts). The central position in the SNA belongs to gross domestic product, or GDP. The regional analogue of GDP in the SNA is the regional gross product, or RGP. This indicator shows the level of economic development and is a unique reflection of the results of economic activity of each of the economic entities within the region. GRP is used as the basis for the formation of regional accounts.

Why is GRP calculated?

On the territory of Russia there are about 89 administrative-territorial entities, localized in different time zones, differing in geographical location and level of economic and social development. GDP reflects only the general situation in the country, not allowing one to clearly see how things are in different parts of the country, which eliminates the possibility of making objective decisions. The state is interested in data that can comprehensively characterize the situation in each individual corner of the country.

Differentiated by the regional gross product, it allows us to develop an appropriate economic policy and evaluate the effectiveness of decisions made not at the country level, but at the regional level. With the help of GRP dynamics, in combination with cost and physical indicators, it is possible to establish the direction and intensity of economic processes that can serve as a strong impetus for development at the interregional level. GRP plays a big role in calculating macroeconomic indicators and in reforming interregional relations. The indicator serves as a guideline in the process of distributing funds from the “Fund for Financial Support of Subjects of the Russian Federation”.

So what is GRP?

Regional gross product is, in fact, a generalized characterizing the level of economic development of the region. It reflects and characterizes the process of production of goods and services. The volume of GRP indicates the value of all goods and services produced in all economic sectors in a particular region. At the first stages of introducing the indicator into economic analysis, data were published taking into account market prices. The assessment of GRP in the format of basic prices differs significantly from the assessment in market prices by exactly the amount of net taxes on products. Subsidies are not taken into account. GRP in the dominant workshops reflects the amount of added value in basic prices with a focus on a specific type of economic activity.

The structure of the GRP, or what it includes

Gross regional product is calculated taking into account the basic price, which is calculated per unit of goods or services. Taxes are not taken into account, but product subsidies are taken into account. Gross is calculated in each individual segment of economic activity as the difference between the output of goods or services and their intermediate consumption. The total price for the production of goods and services within one region is the volume of products produced. The release includes goods and services already sold at market value. The average value is used for calculation. is taken into account in gross output, but only at cost. Intermediate consumption includes the value of goods and services that are fully used in production during the reporting period. Fixed capital does not play a role in calculating intermediate consumption. Expenses for the final use of GRP include expenses for households, government institutions, and collective services. By assessing the volume of gross regional product and its structure, it is possible to determine the sources of financing for final consumption.

Calculation options

In the modern economy, it is customary to use several options for calculating GRP. The production method of calculating the indicator is used at the production stage. It is, in essence, the sum of gross value added, which is generated by each resident institutional unit in the economic territory of the region. Gross regional product, the calculation of which is based on the difference between the output of goods and services and their intermediate consumption, is formed on the basis of prices for goods and services that are fully consumed in production, and is carried out at the level of industries and sectors of the regional economy. GRP can also be calculated on the basis of current market prices by comparing them.

Difference between GDP and GRP

The gross regional product, which is calculated for each region, has significant differences from GDP. The difference between the indicators is the amount of added value. This may include:

• Non-market collective services of government bodies: defense, management.
• Non-market services that are financed from the budget, but information about them is not available at the regional level.
• Services of financial institutions whose activities almost always extend beyond one region.
• Services related to foreign trade, data on which are collected at the Federal level.

Gross product: features of the indicator

The difference between GDP and GRP indicators is formed by the cost of paying taxes in connection with imports and exports. This value is very problematic to calculate due to its specificity and uneven integration between individual regions. Gross regional product by region is calculated over 28 months. The SAC technique allows you to get faster results. The government uses many mechanisms to monitor the dynamics and growth of the indicator. An interesting fact is that in total all GRP indicators do not correspond to GDP, which is determined by the specifics of the calculations and the exclusion of additional costs.

Based on what data is GRP calculated?

The multifaceted structure of the gross regional product determines the use of a large number of sources simultaneously to calculate parameter values. Thus, in the CIS countries, experts take into account enterprise registers and reports on the production and sale of goods and services, reports on production costs. Sample surveys and special reporting at the regional level are taken into account. The calculation is carried out based on employment reports and on the basis of surveys of each individual segment of the economy, based on a survey of household budgets. Significant sources of information are data from tax authorities and banking statistics, reports from public organizations and data on the implementation of various types of budgets.

GRP in Russian practice

The gross regional product for the regions of Russia fully characterizes the level of development of the region and is compared with macro-level indicators. It plays the role of a territorial factor in the development of social and economic processes. The calculation of the value is based on the methodological principles of the SNA, the development of which was carried out within the framework of the FSGS. Publication of results after their preliminary approval is also carried out at the FSGS level.

Forecasting of gross regional product is carried out on the basis of data collected from all residents of the regional economy. These can be corporations, quasi-corporations and households whose center of economic interest is located directly in the region in question. For the first time, the calculation and analysis of the gross regional product was carried out in 1991 for 21 regions. Since 1993, all regional territorial authorities have taken part in the calculations. Since 1995, the assessment and calculation of GRP has been a mandatory condition for the implementation of the Federal Program. Only in 1997 did the assessment of the dynamics of the indicator begin. It provides grounds for the implementation of correct economic policies in the sphere of production and industry, which account for 60 to 80 percent of the total GRP in almost all regions.

Vladimir Stepanovich Bochko

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor, Honored Economist of the Russian Federation, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT:

ASSESSMENT OF TERRITORY DEVELOPMENT

In the context of the increasing role of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the economic development of the country, it is necessary to more actively use modern indicators to assess the dynamics and socio-economic potential of the regions.

A logical continuation of the used system of national accounts (SNA), to which Russia is switching, is the system of regional accounts (SRA). A.G. draws attention to this. Granberg, Yu.S. Zaitseva, N.N. Mikheeva, A.A. Miroyedov, O.A. Sharamygina and other researchers.

The key indicator of the system of national accounts at the regional level is the gross regional product (GRP). The methodological principles of its construction were developed by Nobel laureate R. Stone in the 50s of the twentieth century. Currently, regional accounts are used in many countries around the world. In Russia, GRP has been calculated since 1994. At the same time, the first steps are being taken to create an SDS. At the same time, the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation follows the methodological provisions of the European Statistical Committee, which recommends starting work on the CDS with calculations by region of gross value added and gross capital formation.

The use of the GRP indicator is of particular importance in the context of the formation of a new scientific direction in the study of territories, which is called “spatial economics”. A significant contribution to the development of its theoretical and methodological foundations was made by E.G. Animice,

N.M. Surnina and other Ural researchers.

This article makes an attempt to analyze the gross regional product of the Sverdlovsk region from the point of view of assessing the economic development of the region.

The advantage of GRP is that with its help you can not only assess the development of a specific subject of the Federation, but also carry out

an objective comparison of the level of development of various constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as comparison with data for Russia as a whole.

To characterize the results of economic activity on a national scale, the gross domestic product (GDP) indicator is used.

Although GRP and GDP are very similar indicators in terms of economic content, they do not coincide with each other either quantitatively or qualitatively.

Firstly, the difference between GRP and GDP lies in the scale of coverage of activity results. GRP is limited to taking into account goods and services created in a certain territory of the country, called a region. Since a region, as a rule, is understood as a territory coinciding with the borders of a subject of the Federation, in statistical accounting GRP reflects the results of the activities of regions, republics and autonomous okrugs, which, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, are its subjects.

Secondly, GDP is greater than the sum of GRP for Russia, since in addition to it it includes added value that relates to the country as a whole and is not distributed among individual regions. At the federal level, GDP includes the value added of non-market collective services provided by government agencies to society as a whole (defense, public administration, etc.), added value created by financial and foreign trade intermediaries, as well as taxes on foreign economic activity.

The sectoral structure of GRP can be presented in the form of a diagram (Fig. 1), which includes two large groups of industries and the cost of net taxes on products.

Rice. 1. Structure of gross regional product

The first group of industries that ensure the creation of gross regional product includes industries producing goods. The most important among them are industry, agriculture,

construction, as well as forestry and other goods-producing activities.

The second group includes industries producing services. These include transport, communications, trade and catering, utilities, information and computing services, science, healthcare, education, management, etc. All services, in turn, are divided into market and non-market. At the same time, services in the field of healthcare, education, housing, culture and art, as well as geology and subsoil exploration can be of both a market and non-market nature, and in trade, transport, communications and some other industries - only market.

Net product taxes are product taxes minus product subsidies. As is known, a subsidy is a benefit in cash or in kind provided by the state at the expense of state or local budgets, as well as special funds to legal entities and individuals, local authorities. There are direct subsidies aimed at developing necessary sectors of the economy, and indirect subsidies, which are a system of preferential tax rates, an accelerated depreciation policy, etc.

Product subsidies are a type of subsidy paid by the government to the manufacturer per unit of good (service) produced. Most often, socially significant types of goods (services) are subsidized, the prices of which, in the absence of subsidies, would be too high for the mass consumer. With the help of subsidies, losses from the sale of products at prices that do not cover production costs and do not bring a certain amount of profit are compensated.

Since GRP represents the newly created value of goods and services produced in the territory, it is calculated as a set of added values ​​of the regional economic sectors or, in other words, as gross value added. GRP is calculated in current market and basic prices (nominal GRP volume) and in comparable prices (real GRP volume)1.

Sectoral structure of GRP of the Sverdlovsk region. The main volumetric characteristics of the structure of the gross regional product in the Sverdlovsk region are given in table. 1.

1 Market price - the price of the final buyer. It includes trade and transport margins, taxes on production and imports, and does not include subsidies on production and imports. To eliminate the impact of different tax rates and subsidies in different sectors of the economy on the structure of production and income generation, industry indicators are presented in estimates at basic prices. Basic price is the price received by a producer for a unit of a good or service, excluding product taxes but including product subsidies. Non-market goods and services are valued using the market price of similar goods and services sold on the market, if it can be determined, or by production costs if a market price is not available (in particular, this is how services of government agencies and non-profit organizations are valued).

Table 1

Sectoral structure of the gross regional product of the Sverdlovsk region, % of the gross regional product

Year Industries producing goods Of which Industries producing services Of which Net taxes on products

Industry Agriculture C o r t S Transport Communications Trade and catering

1995 53,2 36,3 10,5

1996* 51,7 36,6 5,8 8,9 40,3 10,8 1,1 9,0 8,0

1997* 47,1 34,0 6,3 6,1 44,0 11,2 1,2 10,0 8,9

1998 51,6 39,2 5,6 6,0 41,8 10,3 1,2 10,8 6,6

1999 55,6 42,2 6,6 6,3 37,7 8,3 1,0 10,8 6,7

2000 55,9 43,5 5,5 6,2 38,1 9,5 1,2 10,7 6,0

2001* 54,7 42,2 5,9 5,9 39,9 9,4 1,3 11,7 5,4

Note. * Calculated based on data from the Sverdlovsk Regional State Statistics Committee.

In first place in terms of specific gravity, as can be seen from the table. 1, there are industries that produce goods. They account for more than half of the gross regional product. Moreover, their share not only remains, but also gradually increases. Thus, in 1995 it was 53.2%, then it decreased slightly, but at the end of the 1990s it began to increase again and reached 55.9% in 2000. In 2001, it decreased to 54.7%, but the overall share of industries producing goods remains quite high and there are no signs that it will decrease.

If we compare similar processes in Russia as a whole and in highly developed industrial countries, we will have to note that, in comparison with the Sverdlovsk region, they are going in the opposite direction: the share of industries producing services is growing in them, and not vice versa.

With the intensification of market reform, the sectoral structure of Russia's GDP is gradually but steadily changing in favor of industries producing services. Thus, in 1995, the share of industries producing goods in Russia was almost the same as in the Sverdlovsk region, i.e. was 53.3%, and

by 2000 it had dropped to 47.6%. At the same time, the share of industries producing services increased from 38.1% in 1995 to 45.0% in 2000. There is an increase in the share of trade and public catering in this area (14.0% in 1998 and 19.3% in 2000), which naturally reflects the development of market relations and the focus of economic development on meeting the needs of people in accordance with the demand of the population.

So, with the initial values ​​of the share of industries producing goods almost identical for the Sverdlovsk region and Russia in 1995 (53.2% - Sverdlovsk region; 53.3% - Russia), by 2000 the situation had changed

so much so that the Sverdlovsk region overtook Russia by more than 7 percentage points (55.9% - Sverdlovsk region; 47.6% - Russia). This negative economic process from the point of view of the development of market relations continues to be consolidated by the economic and investment policies pursued in the region.

The deterioration of the GRP structure in the Sverdlovsk region is caused by an increase in the share of industry among sectors producing goods (from 36.6% in 1996 to 42.2% in 2001), including due to the metallurgical complex. In 1993, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy together provided 45.9% of industrial production, and in 2000 it was already 50.2%. According to the Ministry of Economy and Labor of the Sverdlovsk Region, their share in 2003 was 52.5%. At the same time, the share of agriculture, transport, communications, trade and public catering changed slightly.

The mere fact of strengthening the industrial-production direction of development does not carry anything negative. Each region must use its resources and capabilities. Focusing on them, the subjects of the Federation are looking for ways to raise the level of their economic development. Following this methodological approach, it is natural to believe that the Sverdlovsk region in modern conditions ensures its development precisely on the basis of using the existing objective prerequisites and material conditions. In other words, being an industrial region, it continues to increase primarily its industrial potential.

But such conclusions are correct only as long as we remain at the level of aggregated indicators. If we move from analyzing industry as a whole to considering its structure by industry and clarifying the role and share of each industry in the development of the regional economy, then some generally correct provisions will have to be somewhat adjusted and clarified. The most important among them will be the assertion that only such an industrial structure is optimal in which manufacturing industries occupy a worthy place, and among them the main role belongs to knowledge-intensive industries. Therefore, the raw material orientation of the industrial structure cannot be considered its best option.

A positive process in changes in the structure of GRP should be to increase the share of industries producing services. The need for such a direction of transformation of the structure of the gross regional product is associated, firstly, with the creation of a market infrastructure, especially with the development of banking, lending, insurance, real estate transactions, etc., and secondly, with the restructuring of production for the production of technical equipment. goods and services that are increasingly focused on the diverse demand of the population, both in terms of price parameters and quality characteristics.

GRP per capita. In the analysis of GRP, an important place is occupied by identifying trends in the value of gross regional product per capita. This figure, perhaps at its greatest

least, reflects the dynamics of economic activity unfolding in the region.

In statistics, data on GRP per capita are given not in comparable prices, but in current prices. This makes it difficult to carry out some calculations, for example, comparisons of GRP dynamics of the same region over a number of years, since actual data include price increases due to inflation. Depending on how different the inflation rates were in the periods being compared, the degree of error in the calculations changes.

If comparisons are made for the same year between different regions, then the level of inflation does not matter, since both in the country as a whole and in individual regions, prices in a given period of time grew approximately to the same extent. Therefore, the value of GRP per capita allows us to objectively compare the situation of some regions with others for a certain year, since in this case inflationary processes have practically no effect on the value of calculations. The slight differences in inflation rates across different regions are so small that they should only be taken into account when performing special calculations. For a general comparison of the activities of regions and establishing relationships in their development, differences in regional inflation are not of fundamental importance.

In the case where comparisons are made for different years, it is possible to compare data only “horizontally”, i.e. take different regions and compare their development for a certain year. The transition to a “vertical” comparison is possible only when the year-to-year comparison does not act as a correlation over time of the indicators of a given region to itself, but as a result of comparing different regions with each other “horizontally.”

Let us analyze the relationship between changes in the GRP of the Sverdlovsk region and the GDP of the Russian Federation. The data given in table. 2 allow us to detect two trends characteristic of the region. The first is that the GRP per capita in the region is constantly increasing. In nominal terms, it increased from 4,240.1 rubles. in 1994 to 47,028.0 rubles. in 2001, i.e. more than 11 times. Naturally, the main component of such growth was inflation. At the same time, a certain share is made up of the actual increase in GRP due to the growth of production in the second half of the 90s of the twentieth century. The second trend is less rosy and even alarming. It consists in a relative decrease in the value of the gross regional product per resident of the region, compared with the indicator for the Russian Federation as a whole.

table 2

The ratio of GRP per capita for the Sverdlovsk region and the Russian Federation,

rub., before 1998 - thousand rubles.

Year Sverdlovsk region Russian Federation Sverdlovsk region in relation to the Russian Federation, %

1994 4 240,1 3 583,7 (+) 18,3

1995 12 376,0 9 566,3 (+) 29,4

1996 14 378,4 13 230,0 (+) 8,7

1997 15 902,2 15 212,3 (+) 4,5

1998 16 832,7 16 590,8 (+) 1,5

1999 26 044,6 28 492,1 (-) 8,6

2000 36 094,1 42 902,1 (-) 15,9

2001 47 028,0 54 325,8 (-) 13,4

From the table 2 shows that from 1994 to 1998 inclusive, there was an excess of GRP per capita in the Sverdlovsk region compared to Russia. In 1994 it was 18.3%, in 1995 it increased to 29.4%. But starting from 1996, the amount of excess gradually decreased in

1998 was only 1.5%.

Since 1999, the level of GRP per capita in the Sverdlovsk region became lower than in Russia, and remained this way in subsequent years. In 2001, it was 13.4% lower than the all-Russian one.

Such a stable downward process can only indicate that the real development of the regional economy over the analyzed years is experiencing significant difficulties. One of the reasons for this situation is not just the preservation of a high share of goods-producing industries in the region, but also the growth within them of the share of raw materials-oriented industries, primarily ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy.

The ratio of the dynamics of gross regional product per capita in the Sverdlovsk region and in the Russian Federation is clearly shown in Fig. 2. Initially, the Sverdlovsk region steadily overtook the Russian Federation, and then just as steadily began to lag behind it.

Sverdlovsk region -■-Russian Federation

Rice. 2. Ratio of GRP per capita of the Sverdlovsk region and the Russian Federation

To verify this alarming conclusion and establish its objectivity, we decided to carry out additional calculations by comparing the development of the Sverdlovsk region with neighboring regions that are located in approximately the same geographical,

climatic and economic-industrial conditions. Such regions, naturally, are primarily the Chelyabinsk and Perm regions. They are so close in terms of overall industrial potential and other development indicators that in the scientific literature all three areas are often combined with the concept of “old industrial regions.”

First look at the table. 3 shows that the Sverdlovsk region is developing better than the Chelyabinsk region, but is inferior to the Perm region.

Table 3

The ratio of GRP per capita in the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk and Perm regions, rubles, until 1998 - thousand rubles.

Year Sverdlovsk region Chelyabinsk region Perm region Correlation of the indicator of the Sverdlovsk region, %

with the Chelyabinsk region with the Perm region

1994 4 240,1 3 844,5 4 436,5 (+) 10,3 (-) 4,4

1995 12 376,0 8 967,3 12 291,5 (+) 38,0 (+) 0,7

1996 14 378,4 13 193,2 14 481,8 (+) 9,0 (-) 0,7

1997 15 902,2 14 110,6 16 724,4 (+) 12,7 (-) 5,0

1998 16 832,7 12 700,5 18 615,5 (+) 32,5 (-) 9,6

1999 26 044,6 22 713,7 31 571,7 (+) 14,7 (-) 17,5

2000 36 094,1 36 908,7 43 869,7 (-) 2,2 (-) 17,7

2001 47 028,0 41 557,4 63 183,0 (+) 13,2 (-) 25,6

However, if the general assessment conclusion is correct, attention should be paid to the emerging trend of gradual deterioration in the dynamics of indicators of the Sverdlovsk region in relation to both the Chelyabinsk and Perm regions. Thus, in the mid-1990s, the Sverdlovsk region had a significant advantage over the Chelyabinsk region, reaching, for example, 32.5% in 1998. But since the late 1990s, the gap began to decrease and in 2000 it was negative.

When comparing indicators with the Perm region, the dynamics of development are also visible not in favor of the Sverdlovsk region. Thus, in the mid-1990s, the GRP per capita values ​​in both regions were almost the same: in 1995, the GRP of the Sverdlovsk region exceeded the same indicator of the Perm region by 0.7%, and in 1996 it was lower by the same amount. In other words, development in neighboring regions followed “the same scenarios.” However, since 1997, a clear gap has begun for the Perm region; it is actively moving forward, increasing the distance every year. In 1997 the difference was 5.0%, in 1998 - 9.6, in

1999 - 17.5, and in 2001 already 25.6%.

What is causing the gap to widen? Does the intensification of economic activity in the Perm region play a role here, or is the situation worsening in the Sverdlovsk region? Most likely, both occur.

If the reason for the success of the Perm region in comparison with the Sverdlovsk region were only in the factors of the Perm region itself, then when competing with such regions equal in production and economic potential, the gap in indicators would be significantly smaller, as evidenced by development data before 1996. Consequently, the lag is also associated with some negative processes occurring in the Sverdlovsk region itself. One of the reasons for this situation was the consolidation of its raw material orientation.

Dynamics of growth in the physical volume of GRP in the Sverdlovsk region. Since the cost indicators of changes in the gross regional product are largely burdened with an inflationary component, they cannot reflect the real changes that occur with GRP. The greatest difficulties arise in obtaining objective data when it is necessary to compare the indicators of the same region over a number of years. Therefore, to obtain a real picture, which should reflect the actual processes in the dynamics of GRP, the indicator of the index of the physical volume of GRP is used. In this case, the gross regional product is calculated in comparable prices and reflects the real volume.

Due to a certain faster development of Russia as a whole and its individual regions, the share of the Sverdlovsk region in the total volume of the country's gross regional product is gradually decreasing. If in 1995 the share of GRP of the Sverdlovsk region in the all-Russian volume was 4.1%, then in 2001 it was only 2.7%.

The physical volume index of the gross regional product of the Sverdlovsk region also changes unevenly (Table 4).

Table 4

Index of physical volume of GRP of the Sverdlovsk region,% compared to the previous year

Year Sverdlovsk region For reference: change in the physical volume of total GRP in the Russian Federation

1999 101,8 105,6

2000 112,2 110,7

2001 108,7 106,0

2002* 103,8 104,3

2003* 106,5 106,9

Note. * For the Sverdlovsk region - according to data from the Sverdlovsk Regional State Statistics Committee, for the Russian Federation - current data from the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation.

From the table Figure 4 shows that the GRP of the Sverdlovsk region in real terms began to grow since 1999. The most successful period was 2000, when GRP increased by 12.2%. Hopes arose to maintain such high rates in subsequent years. Although 2001 ended with a decline in growth rates, the latter were at such a high level that new positive economic development could be expected. These two prosperous years were also significant in that for the first time the Sverdlovsk region overtook the Russian Federation in terms of GRP growth rates. If in 2000 in the Russian Federation the GRP growth rate was 110.7%, then in the Sverdlovsk region its growth was 1.5 percentage points higher and equaled 112.2%. In 2001, a favorable outcome was again on the side of our region. It seemed that the regional economy had entered the right direction and would continue its development at the given rhythm.

However, the next year undermined hopes for sustainable advanced development of the region not only in relation to the Russian Federation. In 2002, the region's GRP grew by only 3.8%, which in itself was a low increase. In addition, this figure again became less than the all-Russian one.

There was hope that this was an accidental breakdown. But the data for 2003 again showed the result not in favor of the Sverdlovsk region. This leads to the idea that lower growth rates of GRP in the region compared to Russia may become a recurring phenomenon.

The likelihood of such consequences is evidenced by the dynamics of GRP in the Sverdlovsk region and GRP in Russia as a whole over the past 7 years, presented in Fig. 3. Except 2000 and 2001. throughout the rest of the period, the growth rate of the physical volume of GRP of the region was lower than the growth rate of the total GRP of the Russian Federation.

/1Ї0 // 105U, h. ^ %h108.7 HL0bh 106.9 104.^106.5

Ш 101.2 Г / / / > 101.8 // "Чг 103.8

*h9b\ h \ // // 93/b/

Sverdlovsk region -■---Russian Federation

Rice. 3. Comparative dynamics of the physical volume of GRP of the Sverdlovsk region and GRP of the Russian Federation as a whole

The problem of doubling the GRP of the Sverdlovsk region in relation to

2000 Since the gross regional product in a synthesized form reflects the results of the region’s work, and the gross domestic product reflects the results of the country’s economic activity, state and regional leaders began to turn to these indicators. This made it possible to focus the attention of entrepreneurs and the entire population on solving a problem that, on the one hand, would be understandable to everyone, and on the other, would not simplify the essence of the proposed guidelines.

Both GRP and GDP characterize the final result of the production activities of economic units. These indicators reflect the value of final goods and services produced by these units during the reporting period at final buyer prices. Consequently, they direct the population and economic entities to produce not just finished products and services, but exclusively those that are in effective demand.

In economic terms, GRP, like GDP, when calculated using the production method, represents the sum of the gross added value of all industries. This means that society must organize the activities of enterprises, organizations and spheres of social production in such a way that the share of added value in a product (service) tends to increase. This will result in an increase in labor efficiency and productivity. But not only that. What is important is that part of the added value comes to workers in the form of their wages and, ultimately, their income. Therefore, it becomes clear that an increase in GRP (or GDP) is equivalent to an increase in the well-being of the population of a region or country.

Based on this economic understanding of GRP (GDP), the problem of its growth is indeed the most important for both regional and national leaders, as well as for performers of any level, rank, position and qualifications. The increase in GRP (GDP) determines the success of the development of society, the individual, his material wealth and the conditions for increasing spiritual culture. Therefore, the task (and problem) of actively increasing GRP and GDP may become the main mobilizing economic slogan for the next 20-25 years both for individual regions and for Russia as a whole.

Currently, the leadership of the Sverdlovsk region has set the task of doubling the GRP by 2010. This follows the call of the President of the country to double Russia's GDP by the same date.

How possible is it to solve the named problem in the specified period of time? To answer this question, it is necessary to find out, firstly, how the region “steps” in terms of GRP increment, and secondly, how it should “step” in order to reach the specified finish line on time.

The movement of the Sverdlovsk region to increase GRP was discussed above. If we take 2000 as the base for doubling GRP, then the “step” of the region was slowing down: in 2001, the growth of GRP was 8.7%, in 2002 - 3.8%. The situation improved somewhat in 2003: the growth rate of GRP was 6.5%. The average annual growth for this period was 6.3%.

Our calculations show that if we take the level of GRP of the Sverdlovsk region in 2000 as one, then to double it in 10 years, i.e. by 2010, it is necessary to ensure an average annual increase in GRP of at least 7.5%\

If in any year the growth rate is below this figure, then in subsequent years it will be necessary to exceed 7.5% growth.

The regional government intends to end 2004 with a GRP increase of 7.5%. If this happens, then the Sverdlovsk region can enter into a rhythm of movement that will give it the opportunity to actually achieve the stated goal by 2010.

1 Calculations for the Sverdlovsk region correspond to the dynamics of gross domestic product indices for Russia as a whole. In 2000, its GDP was 66% of the 1990 level. To double this value by 2010, it is necessary to have a GDP growth rate of at least 7.5-7.7% per year. However, practice shows that Russia has not yet reached the level of 7.5% annual GDP growth. In any case, in 2001, GDP growth was 5.0%, in 2002 -4.3%, and in 2003 - 6.9%.

At the same time, from the point of view of improving the well-being of the entire population, one should not overestimate the importance of the growth of the gross regional product of the Sverdlovsk region by 2 times by 2010, since even a doubled GRP in its physical volume will only approach the level of 1990 or slightly less will exceed.

A fundamentally important point is the identification and implementation of the GRP base that will ensure the required level of growth in the gross regional product. We must proceed, firstly, from an analysis of the share of industries in the structure of GRP and their growth rates, and secondly, from the direction of economic development of the region as a whole.

Table data 5 show that over the six years analyzed, serious changes, both positive and negative, have occurred in the structure and share of individual industries.

Table 5

Dynamics of the GRP structure of the Sverdlovsk region by industry (calculated based on)

Share of gross added

Industry value sectors, %

1996 2001

Production of goods 51.75 54.73

Including by industry:

industry 36.61 42.18

agriculture 5.76 5.93

forestry 0.13 0.11

construction 8.90 5.87

other activities for the production of goods 0.34 0.63

Production of services 40.29 39.86

Market services 31.34 33.33

Including by industry:

transport 10.75 9.44

communication 1.14 1.27

trade and catering 8.97 11.69

information and computing services 0.04 0.30

real estate transactions 1.49 3.58

utilities 2.61 1.24

insurance 0.18 0.43

housing 1.39 0.87

provision 0.59 1.48

public education 0.27 0.57

culture and art 0.08 0.11

management 1.06 0.58

other market services 2.77 1.77

Non-market services 8.95 6.53

Including by industry:

housing 0.95 0.37

healthcare, physical education and social

provision 3.06 1.85

public education 3.20 2.27

culture and art 0.29 0.22

control 1.01 1.77

other non-market services 0.44 0.05

Net taxes on products 7.96 5.41

Among the positive aspects, one should mention the preservation of the share of services in the total volume of GRP. In 1996 they amounted to 40.29%, and by 2001 they decreased only slightly and amounted to 39.86%. But this is relative prosperity, since after all, the share of services should grow, not decline. In addition, it is important to note such a phenomenon as an increase in the share of market services and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of non-market services.

A more important positive shift is a significant increase in the share of trade and public catering, information and computing services, and real estate transactions among market services. This series of positive changes indicates the gradual consolidation of market relations in the economy and the creation of the necessary infrastructure for them.

There is also a significant amount of negative developments. Firstly, there was an increase in the share of industries producing goods, which does not correspond to Russian and global trends in transformations of the GRP structure. Secondly, the share of industry continues to increase. In general, this is not a negative characteristic, but on the condition that manufacturing industries will predominate among industrial sectors rather than raw materials. Thirdly, the share of construction has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in GRP growth, since construction is usually one of the drivers of the overall increase in growth rates. Fourthly, the share of transport and housing among market services is falling, although usually it is these sectors, along with communications, that rush forward with the development of market relations. Fifthly, a limiting factor in increasing the growth rate of GRP may be an increase in the share of management in the system of non-market services: from 1996 to 2001 it increased from 1.01 to 1.77%. Increasing management costs from budgetary funds indicate not only an increase in the salaries and incomes of officials, but also an increase in their number itself, which leads to the bureaucratization of the system of management of the economy and society.

The above-mentioned positive and negative trends in changes in the structure of GRP do not exhaust the full depth of changes that took place during the period from 1996 to 2001 inclusive. But they suggest ways to choose directions for improving the structure of the regional economy in order to increase the growth rate of GRP and the economic well-being of the population.

It should be understood that the focus on raw materials will not save the region. Its wealth lies not in natural resources, but in the ability to use them. Therefore, it is necessary to develop intellectual industries, primarily manufacturing, and rely on knowledge-intensive industries.

Literature

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1

The article is devoted to the issue of identifying the conditions for increasing the gross regional product using econometric models in the regions of the North zone. The relevance and specificity of the study of the production of gross regional product of the regions of the North of Russia is positioned. The complexity of the study of the problem is emphasized. The need for priority of economic and mathematical modeling over qualitative assessments of the conditions for increasing the gross regional product is determined. The author's approach and methodology for applying production functions to the analysis of the production of gross regional product are presented in detail. Hypotheses and simplifying prerequisites for the application of production functions to the analysis of the production of gross regional product have been put forward. It is shown that the use of the production function isocline allows one to determine the conditions for maximizing the production of gross regional product. The model allows for a transition from the level of a regional group (in our case, a group of regions of the Russian North) to the level of a specific region in the group and gives recommendations on how to manage the number of people employed in the regional economy and fixed assets in order to optimize the production of gross regional product. It is stated that the use of production functions to analyze the production of gross regional product of the regions of the North allows us to obtain data that has theoretical and practical novelty.

gross regional product

uneven economic development

regions of Russia

econometric models

production functions

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Relevance and specificity of the study. Consideration of the conditions for increasing the gross regional product (GRP) of Russian regions using precise methods is one of the most important areas of fundamental research not only in the field of regional economics, but also in the field of econometric studies of modern reality. This is due to a set of reasons of objective and subjective nature, which are naturally reflected in the complexity of the study of the problem. The indicated complexity made it possible to use in this article the results of work on three thematically different projects supported by grants from scientific foundations.

One of them is project No. 13-06-00030 “Econometric assessment of the development of interregional differentiation in Russia and forecast of the impact of the WTO on the dynamics of the process,” supported by a grant from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. This project reflected the significance of the following reasons for identifying, using precise methods, the specifics of the formation and conditions for managing GRP of the regions of the Russian Federation. Firstly, within the framework of this project, the authors established qualitative differences in economic processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, suggesting typology and application of various criteria for managing production processes to each of the identified types of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The identified features and patterns of economic processes in regions of different types are consistent with the data of other researchers, but indicate the insufficiency of theoretical generalizations on issues of interregional differentiation of socio-economic space. It has been established that one of the reasons is the insufficient use of economic and mathematical methods and models in the regional economy.

This concerns not only the scientific, but also the practical component. Thus, in contrast to the Soviet period, the results of the study of mathematical models are little used as a consulting tool in the development of regional, in particular northern, policy and management practice. As a result, there is a problem of “politicization” of information, which distorts the idea of ​​the real dynamics of social, economic processes and the practice of managing them. Therefore, in order to identify the conditions for increasing the GRP of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (in our case, the subjects of the Northern zone), it is proposed to build, check for compliance with the initial data and study econometric models of regional development. This is not only the scientific, but also the practical significance of the results obtained, since reliance on quantitative data provides objective results, quantitatively characterized changes and comparative assessments of regional processes.

The second project is directly related to the topic of the article - project No. 14-12-51005 “Identification of conditions for increasing the gross regional product of the regions of the Russian North”, supported by a grant from the Russian Humanitarian Fund and the Government of the Murmansk region within the framework of the regional competition “Russian North: history, modernity, prospects” 2014 - Murmansk region. It argues for the expediency of using a relatively simple and well-known econometric tool - the apparatus of production functions. Considerable attention paid to justifying the feasibility of using this classical tool for studying production processes is due to the following. There is a problem in economics, let’s call it the problem of “mathematical bodybuilding.” That is, scientific publications often present models full of differential equations, entropy formulas, etc. Recognizing the theoretical significance of research aimed, for example, at searching for analogies between physical and socio-economic phenomena, it should be noted not only the difficulty of interpreting the results obtained, but also often the presence of simplifying premises that “lead” the proposed models away from reality. As many years of research show, this makes it difficult to use modeling results in management practice.

At the same time, in research practice the existence of a repeatedly tested apparatus of mathematical descriptions of economic processes is forgotten. In this regard, the use of econometric models of production functions, confirmed by the practice of use for many decades in capitalist and socialist countries, determines the scientific and practical value of the obtained patterns and identified features of regional processes. However, the use of standard econometric methods, in particular, production functions, is in some cases complicated by the problem of the modern base of Russian regional statistics - short time series relative to the needs of statistical data processing. Therefore, modification of standard assessment methods is required, which develops the methodological foundations for the application of econometric methods to the analysis of regional problems of our time. The modifications proposed by the author will be discussed below.

The third project, the results of which are used in this article - project No. 14-02-00128 “Transformation of the socio-economic space of the Russian North and development alternatives” indicates the particular relevance of considering production processes in the regions of the North. Researchers of the North have repeatedly pointed out the need to take into account special northern factors when regulating economic processes in these territories. Preliminary research results obtained within the framework of this project suggest that the transformation of the socio-economic space of the Russian North has led to an increase in systemic problems - depopulation, insufficient transport accessibility, infrastructural inadequacy, loss of human capital, reduction of non-core sectors of economic specialization, leading to increased structural imbalances economy of the North.

Discussions at conferences dedicated to the problems of the North and the Arctic indicate that the increase in systemic problems in the northern territories increases threats to economic security due to the fact that it is the exploitation of natural resources located in these territories that determines the stable filling of the Russian budget. Therefore, the choice of object of study is relevant - the regions of the North zone. The urgent need to develop a new policy towards the North is dictated by one of the main problems of managing territorial development. This is a contradiction between the stable increase in both the economic and geopolitical importance of the North and the same stable decrease in protectionism in relation to the economy and social sphere of the northern subjects. The formation of this policy is impossible without large-scale comparative measurements, quantitative characteristics of the development of the subjects of the North, based on proven model calculations. An important component of such work is modeling the production of GRP in the regions of the North, identifying trends, the common and special features of each northern subject.

The identified factors of relevance determine the scientific, practical significance and specificity of the study of the conditions for increasing the GRP of the regions of the North of the Russian Federation.

Methods and approaches for studying the specifics of production and conditions for increasing GRP. The problem is related to the systematization of general and specific features of the formation of GRP in the regions of Russia, in order to identify promising areas for regulating production processes on the basis of the information received. It is advisable to differentiate these areas of regulation according to the group of regions of the North and the non-northern part of the Russian Federation. These proposals are based on quantitative relationships that allow optimizing production, both in the group of regions of the North and in non-northern territories. This formulation of the problem naturally determines the expediency of using mathematical modeling methods.

The methodological premise of the study is that stable growth in the real economic well-being of the regions of the Russian Federation is possible solely on the basis of achieving sustainable growth of GRP, which presupposes, first of all, optimal management of the ratio of labor and capital in the economy of any subject of the Russian Federation. In this regard, a promising means of analyzing regional production processes is the apparatus of production functions, which expresses the dependence of the production result on resource inputs.

From the point of view of regional economics, the apparatus of production functions allows us to build a model of GRP production in the region depending on labor and capital. In this case, labor is taken to be the average annual number of people employed in the economy, and capital is the value of fixed assets in economic sectors.

Having time series of sufficient length, it is possible to estimate the parameters of the production function using econometric methods and connect output, capital and labor in the region. However, at present, the use of this classical approach is complicated due to the insufficient number of observations of the parameters of these functions. In 2014, the researcher has at his disposal data on the GRP of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (without identifying autonomous okrugs) for only 17 years, and for autonomous okrugs - for 11 years (taking into account the lag in the publication of statistical data from reality). For statistical studies, such a time series is not enough. Thus, at the present time, the assessment of the parameters of production functions for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is doubtful, especially for the autonomous okrugs, which largely form the specifics of the North.

To overcome this limitation, a fundamentally new approach is proposed - to estimate the parameters of production functions not from time series of data, but from regional ones. That is, the parameters will be assessed based on data taken for different regions for the same year. The author's successful testing of the proposed approach allows us to consider it a fruitful means of obtaining quantitative information on the production of GRP.

Within this approach, the production function takes the form:

where X(t) is production output for year t; K(t) - capital (cost of fixed assets) for year t; L(t) - labor (number of employees in the system under study) for year t, r denotes the region. The remaining variables (A, p and q) are estimated parameters and, by taking the logarithm of the ratio, can be determined by the least squares method. In this case, A is always greater than zero and is called the coefficient of neutral technical progress (with constant p and q, the greater A is, the greater the output at point (K, L), p - elasticity for funds, q - elasticity for labor.

At the same time, the production function no longer describes the behavior of the system under study at different points in time, but the behavior of a set of systems (regions) at the same point in time. The number of regions in the Russian Federation is sufficient to estimate the parameters using the least squares method.

The application of this approach requires simplifying assumptions and hypotheses. The first prerequisite is that the economies of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation operate in the same legal framework and according to the same principles. The second is that, from the point of view of GRP production, regional economies within one regional group (a group of regions of the entire Russian Federation, a group of regions of the North and a group of regions of the non-northern part of the Russian Federation) differ only in the quantities of fixed assets and labor. The last hypothesis is tested when estimating the parameters of the production function. At the same time, cases are identified that lead to different interpretations of modeling results.

Detailed calculation results will be presented in a subsequent article. But in this work we can say that, according to the preliminary results of calculations, a feature of the regions of the North of the Russian Federation remains - a weak dependence of GRP on the number of people employed in the economy. This indicates the existing opportunities to increase GRP by diversifying the systemically important sectors of the regional economy.

On maximizing GRP growth. Using the apparatus of production functions makes it possible to find a ratio that gives governing bodies recommendations on how to regulate the number of people employed in the regional economy and fixed assets in order to ensure maximum growth of GRP.

If the constructed production function agrees quite well with regional statistics, the ratio that ensures maximum GRP growth is given by the isocline equation. In the case of an exponential production function in the isocline equation, it allows for an interpretation in which the dependence of capital on labor is the sum of two components, group and regional. At the same time, the group component contains the ratio of elasticities for labor and capital, and the regional component depends on the values ​​of labor and capital for a specific region from the group.

Thus, within the framework of this methodological approach, it is possible to make a transition from the level of a regional group to the level of a specific region in the group and give recommendations on how to manage the number of people employed in the regional economy and fixed assets in order to optimize the production of GRP.

Conclusion. To summarize, we can conclude that the use of production functions to analyze the production of GRP in the regions of the North allows us to obtain data that is novel in four aspects.

Firstly, in the development of methodological foundations for modeling regional production processes, adapted to the capabilities of the existing statistical base of regional processes.

Secondly, the identified, and quantitatively characterized, general and specific features of the formation of GRP of each region in the group of northern and non-northern constituent entities of the Russian Federation create the opportunity to increase the efficiency of public administration of a special problem area that is of decisive importance for the national economy - the North of Russia.

Thirdly, the quantitative relationships obtained for each subject of the Russian Federation between fixed assets and the number of people employed in the economy, taking into account both the group specifics (the group of the North and the non-northern part of the Russian Federation) and the specifics of each specific region, are a means of optimizing the management of territorial processes.

Fourthly, instrumental design and identification of problems of economic development of the North through a system of quantitative assessment of parameters, through their comparative characteristics with the all-Russian situation, contribute to the integration of a special direction of research - the theory of the North - into an integral system of scientific information on economics and management.

The study was supported by grants: RFBR No. 13-06-00030 “Econometric assessment of the development of interregional differentiation in Russia and forecast of the impact of the WTO on the dynamics of the process”; RGNF No. 14-02-00128 “Transformation of the socio-economic space of the Russian North and development alternatives”; RGNF No. 14-12-51005 and the Government of the Murmansk region within the framework of the regional competition “Russian North: history, modernity, prospects” 2014-Murmansk region - “Identification of conditions for increasing the gross regional product of the regions of the Russian North.”

Reviewers:

Samarina V.P., Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Economics and Management of the Stary Oskol Technological Institute (branch) named after. A.A. Ugarova Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “National Research Technological University “MISiS”, Stary Oskol.

Skufina T.P., Doctor of Economics, Head. Department of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science of the Institute of Economic Problems of the Kola Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity.

Bibliographic link

Baranov S.V. IDENTIFYING THE CONDITIONS FOR INCREASING THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT OF THE REGIONS OF THE NORTH OF RUSSIA (THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS) // Modern problems of science and education. – 2014. – No. 4.;
URL: http://science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=14022 (access date: 02/01/2020). We bring to your attention magazines published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural Sciences"