Problems of modern demography. Modern demographic problems of Russia. Demographic situation in modern Russia

Chapter III. Problems and prospects of the modern demographic situation in Russia

Chapter II. The main features of the modern demographic situation in Russia in a market economy

Modern Russia is characterized by a complex, tense demographic situation. By the beginning of 2006, the population of the Russian Federation was 143.5 million people. Since 1993, natural population decline has been at a consistently high level (0.7 - 0.9 million people per year). This indicator will allow us to talk about the depopulation process taking place in Russia. Depopulation - a systematic decrease in population - has affected, to varying degrees, almost the entire territory of the Russian Federation and almost all ethnic groups. page 314

Every year the country loses from 500 thousand to one million people - i.e. at least 0.65 percent of its own population. And in the central regions of European Russia, annual losses amount to up to 1.0 percent.

In one minute in Russia today three people are born and four die. At the same time, in China, in the same minute, 38 are born and 16 die, in the USA, 8 and 4, respectively, in Africa, 8 and 3. In India, 48 births and 17 deaths are recorded per minute, in Pakistan - 10 and 3. In Europe and Japan have approximately zero population growth (as many are born as die), but four of the seven most developed countries in the world are still experiencing population growth, albeit small.

In Russia, excess mortality is being reproduced: 2.3 million people die per year, calculated per 100 thousand population - 2 times more than in Europe and the USA. There are 3 times more suicides in Russia than the world average (40 per 100 thousand population) and according to this indicator we rank first in the world. The life expectancy of a man in Russia - less than 59 years - is lower than in Egypt (Africa) and Bolivia (Latin America). At the same time, in Japan - 77 years and 4 months, in Sweden - 77 years, in Great Britain - 75, in France - 74.5, in Germany - 74.4, in the USA - 74. It should be taken into account that in the late 1960s in the USSR, thanks to the development of Soviet medicine, life expectancy reached the level of leading Western countries.

As a result, according to one of the country's leading demographers L.L. Rybakovsky, “the current regime of population reproduction” combines “European fertility and African mortality”

The Russian Federation today ranks 7th in the world in terms of population (after China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan), while having the largest territory in the world, more than 17 million square kilometers. In the conditions of an uncompromising struggle for natural resources (up to 42% of all world reserves are concentrated in the Russian Federation), the long-term existence of a gigantic territory with a rapidly declining population is not possible.

Particularly abnormal, from the point of view of modern conditions and the geostrategic situation, is the situation in the Asian part of Russia, which owns most of the country’s territory and where only a fifth of the population lives. The regions of the Far North and similar climatic conditions are strikingly poorly populated. These areas, which are equivalent to the Far North, account for up to 70% of our territory. And 11.5 million people live on this 70%. 1 person per 1 square kilometer. But even this extremely small population in the Asian and northern parts of the Russian Federation has been steadily decreasing in absolute and relative terms since 1992 for general reasons and due to emigration.

Changes occur not only in the quantitative characteristics of the population, but also in its very structure:

– Age and sex composition. The population of Russia is markedly dominated by women, who make up 53.3% of the total population (2003), that is, their number is 9.5 million more than men. There are 76.3 million women and 66.8 million men living in the country. At the same time, slightly more boys are born than girls. And that’s why men predominate at young ages. By the age of 30–35 the ratio evens out. And at older ages, women begin to predominate more and more, since in Russia their average life expectancy is 13–14 years longer than that of men. In the age group over 70 years, there are almost 3 times more women than men.

There are more women than men in most regions of the Russian Federation. Their predominance is especially strong in largest cities(in Moscow - 55.3% of the total population in 2003), where it begins already from the age of 20 - 25 years, as well as in rural areas of the regions of Central and North-Western Russia, where at retirement age women are 3 - 4 times more than men. But in some regions the opposite picture is observed: in the Kamchatka and Magadan regions, Chukotka, Koryak, Taimyr, Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs there are more men than women.

Changes are constantly observed in the age structure of the population, of which the most typical are the following. Demographic aging of the population is observed. As a percentage of total number of the population in Russia in the corresponding year, children made up 24.5% in 1990, 22.2% in 1997, 16.8% in 2005; population over working age – 18.7%, 20.6%, 20.3%, respectively.

In the most urbanized regions of the country (Moscow, St. Petersburg and some others), the proportion of people under working age is the lowest (18% and below), and the proportion of people over working age is higher (more than 22%). The share of people of working age approximately corresponds to the Russian average (about 60%), but in the future it will decline. In the national autonomies in the south of the country (the republics of Ingushetia, Dagestan, Tyva, etc.) the proportion of people under working age is maximum (over 30%), the proportion of working age is minimal (less than 55%), and the proportion of pensioners is low (10 - 15%) .

The age structure of the population in other regions of the country is related to the balance of migration in previous decades. Regions of new development (Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Magadan Region, etc.), into which there was an intensive influx of population (mainly young people), are currently distinguished by a high proportion of people of working age (about 65-70%) and the lowest proportion of pensioners (less than 10%). Regions with a long-term outflow of population (less urbanized regions of Central and Northwestern Russia - Pskov, Tver and other regions) have the oldest age structure of the population (people over working age - 24 - 27%, working age - 55 - 58%, and children are about 16 – 18%). pp. 248 - 249

– Marriage and family composition of the population. In Russia, despite some weakening of the family institution over the past few decades, marriage remains the predominant form of people's lives. During the census, five categories of marital status of the population are distinguished: 1) never married; 2) married at the time of the census; 3) widows; 4) separated, but not divorced; 5) divorced.

In 2004, 979.7 thousand marriages and 635.8 thousand divorces were registered. In terms of per 1000 people, there are 6.8 marriages and 4.4 divorces.

In modern Russia, a focus has appeared on a family with one child or a family without children. Among women in the most productive group (18 – 34 years old), 24% of those who do not have children and do not want to have them. 42% are planning only one child, 31% - two children, and only 3% - three or more children. pp. 59 - 65

– Ethnic composition of the population. Russia is a multinational state. More than 130 nations and nationalities live in our country. All of them, regardless of their numbers, are distinguished by their distinctive national characteristics. The largest ethnic groups have their own statehood - an autonomous district, region or republic. According to the population census (2002), of the total population of Russia, Russians make up about 80%, Tatars - 3.8%, Ukrainians - 2%, Chuvash - 1.2%, Bashkirs 1.2%.

Russians predominate in most regions of the country. The highest proportion of Russians (more than 95% of the population) are in the regions of the Central and Central Black Earth economic regions (except for Moscow and the Moscow region), the territory of which was inhabited by Russians even before the 17th century.

Russia has 32 national autonomies. But due to mass migrations throughout the 20th century. Most of them are dominated not by indigenous people, but by Russians. A more homogeneous national composition is only in those autonomies that have been characterized by migration outflow of the population for many decades. Thus, the highest proportion of indigenous peoples is in the North Caucasian republics of Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia - more than 90% of the population. More than half of the population are representatives of the titular ethnic groups in the republics of Tyva, Chuvashia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Tatarstan, Kalmykia, and Bashkortostan. A significant proportion (from ¼ to ½ of the population) are representatives of the titular ethnic groups in the republics of Mari El, Sakha (Yakutia), Karachay-Cherkessia, Mordovia, Buryatia, Altai, etc. pp. 250 - 251

– Religious composition of the population. The population of Russia professes mainly world religions: Christianity (primarily Orthodoxy), Islam and Buddhism. There are many adherents of Judaism in the largest cities. Orthodoxy is practiced by Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Armenians, Mordovians, Georgians, Chuvashs, the bulk of Ossetians and Moldovans. Catholicism is recognized by the majority of Poles, Lithuanians, some Latvians, Belarusians, and Moldovans. Protestantism is practiced by Estonians, the majority of Germans and Latvians, and a small part of Lithuanians, Poles, and Belarusians. Islam - Tatars, mountain peoples of the North Caucasus, Azerbaijanis, Bashkirs, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, part of the Ossetians, Tajiks, Turkmens, etc. Buddhism is recognized by the Buryats, Tuvans, Kalmyks. Judaism – Jews and Karaites. Some small peoples of Siberia and the Far East adhere mainly to traditional beliefs.

The potential Orthodox contingent in Russia makes up 86% of the population. Orthodox people are settling in all parts of the country. The number of Muslims in Russia is at least 12 million people, or 8%. They mainly settle in the republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan (about 7 million people), as well as in the North Caucasus. There are few Buddhists; they settle mainly in the Republics of Buryatia and Kalmykia. The number of Jewish contingents is about 200 thousand people.

– Economic composition of the population. In Russia, during the 1990s, the economic composition of the population changed significantly. The level of economic activity of the population, which in Soviet times was one of the highest in the world, decreased (almost all women and many people of retirement age worked). The unemployed have appeared and now constitute less than 10% of the economically active population (7.5% in 2003). The sectoral structure of employment began to change from industrial to post-industrial (about 55% of employees are in the tertiary sector, about 35% in the secondary sector). But at the same time, employment in the primary sector of the economy remains excessively high compared to the leading developed countries of the world (10%).

Russia is characterized by trends toward a reduction in the number of labor resources, the number of people employed in science and scientific services, in industries that determine scientific and technological progress, and an increase in the share of unemployment. With the development of market relations in Russia, the share of people employed in the non-state sector of the economy has sharply increased and decreased in the public sector. The number of people employed in the sectors of non-material production, market infrastructure and in the administrative apparatus has increased.

The practice of attracting workers from foreign countries to work in Russia, which has expanded since the 90s, does not contribute to the elimination of unemployment in the country itself, although in the largest cities it is to a significant extent not total, but structural in nature.

According to the Center for Gender Research, Russia is now experiencing a sharp decline in the level of women's employment. Women have almost never achieved high positions in public and commercial management in our country. Thus, senior civil servants are feminized by only 5.7%. Among the owners and managers of even large Moscow companies there are only a few women, and out of 138 representatives of the capital's business elite, only 11 are women. pp. 83 - 92

– Educational composition of the population. The level of education is most often defined as the result of completing a relevant educational institution. Thus, in our country the following levels of education are distinguished: 1) higher; 2) incomplete higher education; 3) secondary special; 4) general average; 5) incomplete secondary; 6) initial; 7) without primary education. . Usually it is taken into account only for the adult population, i.e. for people over 15 years old. Over time, the share of people with a higher level of education increases, and the share of people with a low level decreases.

As of 2002 in Russia, per 1000 people there is the following number of people with a certain level of education: 1) higher education – 160 people; 2) incomplete higher education – 31 people; 3) secondary vocational – 391 people; 4) average general – 175 people; 5) basic average - 138; 6) primary - 77; 7) without education – 10

– Social composition of the population. At present, the theory of the social structure of society has not yet been developed, but, nevertheless, the following social groups can be distinguished, which have analogues in all developed countries of the world:

· administrative elite, senior civil servants;

· the working class, which can be divided into skilled and unskilled workers, as well as workers with and without shares in their enterprise;

· entrepreneurs of all types, among which we can distinguish large, medium and small;

· intelligentsia, which can be divided according to professional characteristics: doctors, teachers, professional military men;

· peasantry;

· self-employed;

· population living on benefits - pensioners, unemployed, etc.;

· marginal layers of society - homeless people, criminal elements, etc.

There are no exact quantitative estimates of these groups, but the most numerous in Russia are the workers and the intelligentsia.

– Settlement structure of the population. The urbanization rate in Russia is 73% (1993 – 2003), approximately the same as in most European countries. However, it varies widely across regions - from 0% in the Ust-Ordynsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug to 93% in the Magadan Region (excluding Moscow and St. Petersburg, where the entire population is urban, since these are cities). pp. 95 – 101

It is impossible to consider the current demographic situation in Russia without taking into account the migration mobility of the population. How is the modern geography of migration flows within Russia taking shape and what are the directions of external migration of the population?

In recent years, the main vector of interregional migration in Russia has been movement from the north and east of the country to the south and west. The country is clearly divided into two zones: inflow (Central, Volga-Vyatka, Central Black Earth, Ural economic regions; Rostov region, Krasnodar, Stavropol territories; Southern regions of Siberia) population outflow (European North, northern regions Eastern Siberia and Far East). This spatial pattern of migration, according to experts, will continue in the foreseeable future.

Russia has the closest external migration ties with the CIS countries. They account for over 4/5 of the migration exchange between the Russian Federation and foreign countries. At the same time, the incoming flow of migrants to Russia predominates.

In the geography of migrants leaving Russia, there are three main directions – Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus. They account for 4/5 of all those leaving Russia for neighboring countries for permanent residence. pp. 173 - 181

demographic social economic policy

Among the most important problems and processes of demographic development in Russia beginning of the XXI V. Problems to be highlighted:

1) depopulation;

2) population aging;

3) reduction in life expectancy;

4) degradation of the nation’s gene pool;

5) preservation of the institution of family;

6) increasing tension in interethnic relations, the gradual formation and strengthening of nationalist motives in the behavior of people, especially young people;

7) lack of an active state migration policy;

8) uneven distribution of residents across the country;

9) exacerbation of territorial and socio-economic problems in urban and rural settlements;

10) employment of the population, growth in unemployment;

11) lack of a solid scientifically based demographic policy necessary for the development of the country.

The problem of depopulation in Russia. The population of Russia has been declining since 1992–1993. This is happening in the context of the emerging trend of stabilization of the Earth's population in the foreseeable future at the level of 10 - 11 billion people. There is a danger of extinction of the Russian ethnic group.

The peculiarity of Russian depopulation is that, against the background of low birth rates in the country, the mortality rate has been increasing in recent years. As a result, since 1992 there has been a negative value of natural increase, i.e., an excess of mortality over the birth rate (Table 2).

There are many reasons for the decline in fertility:

1) mass distribution of small children or childlessness;

2) low level of health of the population of reproductive age;

3) high prevalence of abortions;

4) economic difficulties, etc.

The main reasons for the sharp and growing mortality rate in Russia:

1) aging population;

2) insufficient level of development of a network of high-quality and publicly accessible health care institutions;

3) a relatively high level of occupational injuries (to a large extent this is a consequence of alcohol poisoning);

4) alcoholism and drug addiction;

5) indirect impact of negative changes in the environmental situation;

6) the phenomenon of excess mortality, especially among men of working age;

7) a huge burden, especially on women, their overwork and, as a consequence, a tendency to increased morbidity and the birth of physically weak children;

8) a sharp drop in the level of well-being, worsening nutrition, rising prices for medicines and medical services;

9) increased emotional stress, frequent stressful situations, inability to relax in the fast pace of modern life, low mobility and a wide spread of passive forms of rest;

10) low culture of organizing leisure and recreation;

11) alarming crime situation.

In Russia, high rates of maternal mortality remain as a result of complications of pregnancy, childbirth, the postpartum period (in our country it is 5-10 times higher than in developed Western European countries and 2-4 times higher than in developed countries of the world) and infant mortality.

The problem of population aging. The deterioration of vital statistics in Russia determines negative changes in the age structure of its residents. According to international criteria, a population is considered old if the proportion of residents aged 65 years and older exceeds 7%. In Russia, 13.7% (2005) of the population is at this age.

The problem of declining life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth in Russia began to decline around 1992. By 2004, life expectancy for women reached 72.3 years, and for men - 58.9 years. This is due to an increase in mortality, especially in working ages, and indicates general socio-economic disadvantage in the country. In most developed foreign countries, life expectancy is 71 - 74 years, and in the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan - 77 - 80 years.

The problem of degradation of the nation's gene pool, the emergence of serious demographic consequences as a result of multiplied socio-economic difficulties, including those with medical and social implications. According to the World Health Organization, health is the state and awareness of one’s complete physical, spiritual, social well-being, and not just the absence of diseases and physical defects in a person. It is the combination of physical, psychological and social comfort that determines people’s health. According to WHO, health, which mainly determines the well-being of people, depends 55% on conditions and lifestyle, 25% on the state of the environment, 20% on genetic factors, and 15% on the activities of health care institutions. It is difficult to expect that Russians can enjoy excellent health if a significant part of them live in an ecologically unfavorable environment, which is observed over a significant area of the country. The poor health of the current generation will inevitably increase the health problems of future generations.

The requirements of a market economy force us to intensify the rhythm of people's lives, their economic and educational activities. Workloads have increased sharply, but a publicly accessible system for restoring physical strength and mental balance has not yet been created. The mental health of the nation is becoming less reliable, psychoses of a social nature have become more frequent. The environment continues to change for the worse. This contributes to the deterioration of the nation's health.

Many children are born with congenital pathologies. In the future, the situation will become even more aggravated, because now girls are entering reproductive age, 12–15% of whom have serious gynecological diseases, 25% have blood pressure disorders, 75% of schoolgirls have various chronic diseases. Only one girl out of four can be considered healthy.

There is growing concern about the health of women - expectant mothers. Already, only half of women giving birth are having a normal birth. Gynecological pathology is observed in 60% of women. Abortion remains the main method of birth control; the number of abortions and the number of births are in a ratio of 3:1.

Children's health is deteriorating. Due to a slight decline in the quality of nutrition in the last 10 - 15 years, the weight of children has decreased, the number of short children has increased (thus, the weight of adolescents has decreased by 4 - 5 kg, and the number of short children has increased 15 times.) 40% more, than earlier, young people began to die - at the age of 15 - 19 years. The proportion of children with diseases of the nervous system is very high and increasing; 40% of children suffer from chronic diseases, half have various developmental disabilities. Increased physical and emotional stress, combined with deteriorating nutrition, contribute to a decline in children's health. But these are the future labor resources and warriors - defenders of the Motherland. pp. 118 – 134

The problem of the institution of family and marriage, as well as the growing divorce rate. The following trends can be noted in the development of the institution of the Russian family at the end of the 20th century:

1) a decrease in marriage activity with the expansion of the practice of creating unregistered marriage unions and guest forms of marriage relations;

2) belittling the importance of virginity and marital fidelity, focusing on the admissibility of compromises in family relationships;

3) increased family instability and divorce rates;

4) expansion of the process of nuclearization of family units as a desirable family model with a decrease in its number of children, an increase in out-of-wedlock birth rates;

5) growing orientation towards a single-ethnic and single-religious family;

6) the stable influence of parents on the socio-psychological climate in the family of their adult children.

The theory of the institutional crisis of the family explains why the birth rate throughout the world is falling to one to two child families, which automatically means depopulation. According to this theory, people were interested in having many children only in the pre-industrial era. In those days, the expression “family is the unit of society” was much more consistent with the real state of affairs than in our era. The family truly acted as a miniature model of society.

The family was a production team, a school, a social security institution, and a place of leisure. The family satisfied sexual needs and the need for children. Extramarital affairs were condemned by public opinion.

Having children was a necessary condition in order to be considered a full member of society. Childlessness was condemned by public opinion, and married couples without children suffered psychologically from their inferiority.

With the advent of industrialization, the situation changed dramatically. The family has lost its production significance and ceased to be a labor collective. Family members - husband, wife and older children - begin to work outside the home. Each of them receives an individual salary, regardless of the composition of the family or its presence at all. Accordingly, there is no need for a sovereign head of the family as the head of family production.

In addition, the increasing complexity of tasks necessary for socialization and subsequent labor activity, leads to an extension of the training period. If in a traditional peasant family 7-year-old children already became good helpers for their parents, then in a modern urban family children study until they are 17-18 years old, and if they enter institutes or universities, they remain dependent on their parents until they are 22-23 years old. But even after they start working, they do not give their parents part of their earnings and generally leave the parental family at the first opportunity.

In modern society, the institution of marriage as a contract is being destroyed, in which the husband is obliged to support the family, and the wife is obliged to give birth to children and run the household. Now sexual and friendly communication is possible without joint housekeeping, obligations, etc. Illegitimate children in Russia make up almost 30% of all births. Everywhere, the out-of-wedlock birth rate is growing, but its growth does not compensate for the fall in the marital birth rate—in general, the birth rate is falling. pp. 153 – 159

Complication and aggravation of the problems of demoethnographic and religious development of the country. Currently, the processes of maturation of national consciousness among representatives of different ethnic groups have intensified, but at the same time, nationalist sentiments are growing. Visible national discontent is the result of long-term mistakes in the socio-economic development of the country; the creation of national-territorial entities lacked a truly scientifically based national policy. There is no accurate data on the national composition of Russians, while the opinion remains that nationality influences careers and success in socio-political activities. That is why data on the size of the Russian population in Russia are clearly overestimated.

In the 1990s, the problem of preserving the population’s adherence to the predominantly religious ideology of traditional confessions in Russia became more acute. Relatively new religious organizations have emerged and are intensifying their activities. In fact, these are quite specific associations, far from what we are used to understanding as religion. These are sects. A distinctive feature of modern sectarianism: unfreedom reigns in its communities. Once there, it is extremely difficult to escape. These organizations create a situation that psychiatrists call psychoterrorism.

Interethnic conflicts have also intensified, and numerous nationalist organizations operate everywhere. Beatings and murders of Russian citizens of non-Russian nationality, as well as foreign citizens, are being committed.

The problem of the ambiguity of the influence of external and internal migration processes on the demographic development of Russia and the lack of a justified migration policy. In the 1990s. In Russia, the emigration process has sharply increased, while the “brain drain” has assumed the scale of a national catastrophe. However, by the beginning of the 2000s. The number of people leaving has decreased and has practically stabilized recently.

So far, Russia does not have a strictly justified migration policy. The main attention is paid to the accommodation of migrants who voluntarily and independently arrive there. In fact, immigration policy in Russia is destructive, it is aimed at reducing the influx of population, even when it comes to the repatriation of Russians after the collapse of the USSR. Even in the United States, where the birth rate is significantly higher and the mortality rate is lower, the forecast for the balance of migration for 2000–2005 is – 800 thousand people. per year (and in Russia – 125 – 245 thousand people).

Migration flows within the country have the following direction: the population leaves the northern and eastern regions countries with unfavorable natural and climatic conditions and move to the old developed regions of the center and south of the European part of Russia.

The problem of uneven settlement of residents across the territory of Russia. Russia's population density decreases sharply from west to east and from south to north. Areas along transport communications and river valleys are more densely populated. Extremely unfavorable natural conditions and the presence of significant mineral resources determines the low density, but increased share of the urban population in the total number of inhabitants of the Far North, Siberia and the Far East.

The problem of exacerbation of territorial and socio-economic problems in urban and rural settlements, non-optimal ratio in the conditions of the vast territory of Russia, the number of its urban and rural population, sharp territorial differences in the level of urbanization. Forced into the twentieth century. the process of industrialization, the global process of accelerating scientific and technological progress have determined the significant intensity and territorial ubiquity of the scope of urbanization development in our country. In the 20th century The number and proportion of urban residents increased rapidly, while by the end of the century in Russia there was a tendency towards a certain stability of urbanization processes.

A significant proportion of citizens are concentrated in millionaire cities, the largest, the largest, the largest. There are many medium and small cities with low economic and socio-demographic potential. The problem of maintaining the viability of small and medium-sized cities has sharply worsened. The functional monostructure, or underdevelopment, of the city-forming base aggravates the difficulties of the development of urban settlements of all types and makes it difficult to find ways to solve them.

The size and share of the rural population in Russia tends to decline. Now the number of rural residents makes up 27% of the country's total population. In the 1990s. The poorly thought-out practice of cottage construction contributed to the growth of even greater social tension in rural areas, especially in the suburban areas of large cities, emphasizing the growth of social stratification in society and increasing environmental problems.

The problem of employment and rising unemployment. The unemployment rate in Russia is quite high and this is a very acute problem.

If unemployment in Russia is allowed to continue to rise, the social consequences could be disastrous. Surveys conducted in the United States have shown that when the unemployment rate increases by 1%, if it does not decrease over the next five years, the results are as follows: an increase in mental illness by 3%, imprisonment by 4%, and murder by 6%. %, mortality from alcoholism - by 2%, increase in the overall mortality rate - by 2%. Our scientists have found that an increase in unemployment and tension in the labor market in the city by 1% causes an increase in crime by at least 7 - 8%.

The number and share of Russians with incomes below the subsistence level are still large, but they are gradually decreasing (49.7 million people - 1992; 42.3 million people - 2000) pp. 139 - 155

Among the most important problems and processes of demographic development in Russia at the beginning of the 21st century. Problems to be highlighted:

1) depopulation;

2) population aging;

3) reduction in life expectancy;

4) degradation of the nation’s gene pool;

5) preservation of the institution of family;

6) increasing tension in interethnic relations, the gradual formation and strengthening of nationalist motives in the behavior of people, especially young people;

7) lack of an active state migration policy;

8) uneven distribution of residents across the country;

9) exacerbation of territorial and socio-economic problems in urban and rural settlements;

10) employment of the population, growth in unemployment;

11) lack of a solid scientifically based demographic policy necessary for the development of the country.

The peculiarity of Russian depopulation is that, against the background of low birth rates in the country, the mortality rate has been increasing in recent years.

There are many reasons for the decline in fertility:
1) mass distribution of small children or childlessness;

2) low level of health of the population of reproductive age;

3) high prevalence of abortions;

4) economic difficulties.

The main reasons for the sharp and growing mortality rate in Russia:
1) aging population;

2) insufficient level of development of a network of high-quality and publicly accessible health care institutions;

3) relatively high level of industrial injuries (mostly at least this is a consequence of alcohol poisoning);

4) alcoholism and drug addiction;

5) indirect impact of negative changes in the environmental situation;

6) the phenomenon of excess mortality, especially among men of working age;

7) a huge burden, especially on women, their overwork and, as a consequence, a tendency to increased morbidity and the birth of physically weak children;

8) a sharp drop in the level of well-being, worsening nutrition, rising prices for medicines and medical services;

9) increased emotional stress, frequent stressful situations, inability to relax in the fast pace of modern life, low mobility and a wide spread of passive forms of rest;

10) low culture of organizing leisure and recreation;

11) alarming crime situation.

The problem of population aging. The deterioration of vital statistics in Russia determines negative changes in the age structure of its residents. According to international criteria, a population is considered old if the proportion of residents aged 65 years and older exceeds 7%. In Russia, 13.7% (2008) of the population is at this age.

The problem of declining life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth in Russia began to decline around 2000. By 2008, life expectancy for women reached 72.3 years, and for men - 58.9 years. This is due to an increase in mortality, especially in working ages, and indicates general socio-economic disadvantage in the country.

The problem of degradation of the nation's gene pool, the emergence of serious demographic consequences as a result of multiplied socio-economic difficulties, including those with medical and social resonance. According to the World Health Organization, health is the state and awareness of one’s complete physical, spiritual, social well-being, and not just the absence of diseases and physical defects in a person. It is the combination of physical, psychological and social comfort that determines people’s health. According to WHO, health, which mainly determines the well-being of people, depends 55% on conditions and lifestyle, 25% on the state of the environment, 20% on genetic factors, and 15% on the activities of health care institutions. It is difficult to expect that Russians can enjoy excellent health if a significant part of them live in an ecologically unfavorable environment, which is observed over a significant area of the country. The poor health of the current generation will inevitably increase the health problems of future generations.

Complication and aggravation of problems demo-ethnographic and religious development of the country. Currently, the processes of maturation of national consciousness among representatives of different ethnic groups have intensified, but at the same time, nationalist sentiments are growing. Visible national discontent is the result of long-term mistakes in the socio-economic development of the country; the creation of national-territorial entities lacked a truly scientifically based national policy. There is no accurate data on the national composition of Russians, while the opinion remains that nationality influences careers and success in socio-political activities. That is why data on the size of the Russian population in Russia are clearly overestimated.

Differences remain in the norms of social life and behavioral stereotypes among representatives of different national and religious groups. For example, the maximum birth rate is among Muslims; it is much lower among representatives of the Orthodox and Jewish ethnic groups.
The problem of exacerbation of territorial and socio-economic problems in urban and rural settlements, non-optimal ratio in the conditions of the vast territory of Russia, the number of its urban and rural population, sharp territorial differences in the level of urbanization. A significant proportion of citizens are concentrated in millionaire cities, the largest, the largest, the largest. There are many medium and small cities with low economic and socio-demographic potential. The problem of maintaining the viability of small and medium-sized cities has sharply worsened. The functional monostructure, or underdevelopment, of the city-forming base aggravates the difficulties of the development of urban settlements of all types and makes it difficult to find ways to solve them.
The size and share of the rural population in Russia tends to decline. Now the number of rural residents makes up 27% of the country's total population. The problem of employment and rising unemployment. The unemployment rate in Russia is quite high and this is a very acute problem.
If unemployment in Russia is allowed to continue to rise, the social consequences could be disastrous. Our scientists have found that an increase in unemployment and tension in the labor market in the city by 1% causes an increase in crime by at least 7 - 8%.
The number and share of Russians with incomes below the subsistence level are still large, but they are gradually decreasing.

Changes in the level and quality of life of the population transformed into acute socio-economic problems, which had no less acute demographic consequences. Among them:

Catastrophic decline in income and material security of the main part of the population;

High proportion of poor people with extremely poor definition of poverty level;

Unprecedented polarization of living conditions;

Significant levels of unemployment and non-payment of wages;

Degradation of social security and actual destruction of the social sphere, including housing and communal services.

All this could not but affect the state of the population: its natural decline and depopulation began, the quality of the population decreased, and an ineffective model of external and internal migration emerged. "Shock therapy" led to a sharp drop in the population's income

ROSSTAT does not provide a true picture of social changes in the country. Most often, the “average person” is taken: the incomes of the rich and the poor are summed up, the amount is divided by the number of workers in the country, and social justice triumphs, “life has become better, life has become more fun.” But the incomes of our richest 10%, according to independent experts, exceed the incomes of the poor by almost 30 times.

“Maternity capital,” which can be put into circulation when a child reaches three years of age, is aimed more at propaganda than at having a significant impact on the economic situation of a young family. The Ministry of Finance provides special types expenses, for example, paying for a child’s education (in Soviet period education was free) and improved living conditions. In St. Petersburg, this amount can buy approximately 3-4 m².

Since 2000, there has been a slight increase in the birth rate in the Russian Federation. At the same time, this birth rate is still insufficient to ensure population reproduction. The birth rate is negatively affected by: the low monetary income of many families, the lack of normal living conditions, the modern family structure (orientation towards small children, an increase in the number of single-parent families), heavy physical labor of a significant part of working women (about 15 percent), working conditions that do not meet sanitary conditions. hygiene standards, low level of reproductive health, high number of pregnancy terminations (abortions). Low birth rates lead to demographic aging of the population.

The public education system is also in serious crisis.

From the beginning of the reforms to the present time, the greatest losses have been suffered by: preschool education, general education, primary vocational education.

For 1990-2006 number of preschool educational institutions and their pupils decreased by 2 times. Number of daily educational institutions decreased during this period by 12%, and the number of students in them by 29%.

Number of primary vocational education institutions? decreased by 26%, and the number of students in them by 24%. The number of secondary specialized educational institutions and students in them has increased slightly. Graduated specialists from secondary specialized educational institutions in 2006. 10% more than in 1990

During the years of reform, a paradoxical situation arose in the higher education system: the number of higher educational institutions and the number of students increased by more than 2 times, and the number of specialists graduating from them increased by more than 3 times, which significantly exceeds the needs of the market. This phenomenon can be explained by a number of reasons. Among them, the first place can be given to the desire of rich people to have a higher education for the sake of prestige. The desire to obtain a second higher education has become fashionable. And, finally, there is an overproduction of specialists in the field of economics and jurisprudence. But the most common reason is the state of chaos in the economy, social sphere, and in the public education system.

The main objectives of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025 are: - reducing the mortality rate by at least 1.6 times, primarily in working age from external causes; - reducing the level of maternal and infant mortality by at least 2 times, strengthening the reproductive health of the population, the health of children and adolescents; - maintaining and strengthening the health of the population, increasing the duration of active life, creating conditions and creating motivation for leading a healthy lifestyle, significantly reducing the incidence of socially significant diseases that pose a danger to others, improving the quality of life of patients suffering from chronic diseases and people with disabilities; - increasing the birth rate (increasing the total birth rate by 1.5 times) due to the birth of a second child and subsequent children in families; - strengthening the institution of family, revival and preservation of spiritual and moral traditions family relations; - attracting migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration.? By 2025, it is expected to: ensure a gradual increase in the population (including through replacement migration) to 145 million people; increase life expectancy to 75 years; increase the total birth rate by 1.5 times compared to 2006, reduce the mortality rate by 1.6 times; ensure migration growth of more than 300 thousand people annually.

57. Population censuses as a source of information for socio-economic planning. Results of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census.

Population census- the process of collecting, summarizing, assessing, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data about the entire population living at a certain point in time in a country or a clearly defined part of it.

In the practice of the country's population census, it is taken into account

1. The permanent population is a set of persons permanently living in a given area, regardless of where they actually are at the time of the population census and whether they are on the lists of residents of this territory. IN different countries different criteria for recording the resident population are taken into account. In most countries this is several months. In Russia it is 1 year

2. The current population is the totality of people who are in a given territory at the critical moment of the census, regardless of how long they have been here.

3. Legal (registered) population - these are those who are listed in the lists of residents of a given territory, registered here or associated with a given area by any other registration rules, regardless of actual residence. A purely police category with very ancient origins.

Principles for developing a census program designed to provide reliable information

1. compare census data with data from the previous census

2. in accordance with international recommendations on census issues

3. clarity of questions

4. universality of the census, name and self-determination of the person being enumerated

Features of the population census in different countries

1. determination of critical moments of the census (minutes and hours when the census begins and ends) the shorter they are, the more accurate the data. In Russia, the critical moment of the census is 11 days: 00.00 October 14 and 00.00 October 25

2. The level of education is taken into account differently, which educational institution is completed and where one studies. In the Russian Federation, primary, secondary, and higher education are taken into account

3. Age: full number of years or what year was suitable

4. Native language: in the Russian Federation language proficiency

5. nationality

Social policy of the state in the structure of state-municipal management. Welfare state, welfare state, neo-Keynesianism and equal opportunity society.

Social politics this is an integral part of the general strategy of the state related to the social sphere: purposeful activities to develop and implement decisions directly related to a person and his position in society; to provide it with social guarantees, taking into account the characteristics of various groups of the country's population, the social policy pursued by the government, all branches and authorities, based on broad public support, is intended to accumulate, focus, and reflect the situation in the country and the situation in society, the needs and goals of social development.

There are objective reasons for the social orientation of the state:

The increasing role of humans as the main factor of economic growth

Changes in population structure (rapid population growth, increasing proportion of city dwellers, emancipation of women, etc.)

The private sector is increasingly demanding in the development of the social structure.

The result is effective social policy there should be an increase in income and savings of the population, an increase in demand, which in turn stimulates economic growth, a reduction in the number of individuals in need of social assistance, an increase in the education of the population, as well as an increase in the state budget by increasing the ability of the population to pay taxes.

An important direction of the state’s social policy is ensuring conditions for normal employment of the population. Every member of society capable of working should have at least the potential opportunity to work. To do this, it is necessary not only to create jobs, but also to develop education, healthcare, and a system of training and retraining of workers.

One of the directions of social policy is the elimination or neutralization of negative aspects during the transition to market relations. We are talking about corruption, bribery, lack of control in relation to the development of the shadow economy.

Social policy is based on a number of principles, among which priority ones should be mentioned ensuring resource potential for carrying out social policy. Its implementation is carried out in two directions: on the one hand, conditions are provided for the development of social production, creating resource potential for the implementation of social policy; on the other hand, a set of measures is being taken to develop the person himself: increasing education, improving the skills of workers, creating conditions for a healthy lifestyle

The next principle can be called principle of universality of social policy. It involves the inclusion of social activities of all socio-demographic layers and groups of the population.

Finally, it is necessary to point out such a principle as flexibility of the social guarantee system itself. It must respond to ongoing changes in the economic and social spheres of society's development. This is especially important for the conditions of a transition economy, where crisis phenomena, inflation, rising unemployment and, as a consequence, a sharp drop in living standards and social upheavals in society are inevitable.

The current crisis is the fourth in the country since the beginning of the twentieth century. However, it should be understood that its causes are qualitatively different from those that led to the previous three. After all, the two most severe demographic failures in Russia occurred during the First and Second World Wars - that is, during the time of colossal and irrevocable human losses on the battlefield.

Today our country is not at war with anyone. And the main reason for the current demographic crisis is that over the past 15 years the country has been pursuing a socio-economic and political course that is absolutely alien to the national-state interests of the country and the interests of the Russian people.

This means that demographic problems can only be solved by comprehensively solving the country’s main socio-economic problems. In other words, by creating the most favorable conditions for the lives of people in Russia. demographic migration population birth rate

What are the current demographic problems in Russia?

This is, first of all, low birth rates, which have long been unable to ensure even simple reproduction of the population. Moreover, over the past 15 years it has decreased by almost 30%.

Secondly, this is the extremely high mortality rate of Russians. Its level is 1.6 times higher than in developed countries. Male mortality is 4 times higher than female mortality. Infant mortality also remains extremely high in our country - it is more than 1.5 times higher than in Europe.

Thirdly, this is the low life expectancy in our country. According to this indicator, Russia has dropped from 35th place in the world, which it occupied in 1975, to 142nd place currently. This is the level of Iraq and Honduras, below only the countries of Africa and Oceania.

All together this leads to a general decline in the population in Russia. Over the past 15 years, we have lost about 5 million people, or 3.2% of the population. Currently, the country's population is declining annually by almost 700 thousand people.

And even official forecasts in this matter are not at all reassuring - by 2050, the population of Russia may decrease to 77 million people, which is 2 times less than the current level.

Among other acute demographic problems, the following should be noted:

- a noticeable decrease in the share of children and youth in the population structure;
- growth in the share of citizens of retirement age;
- more than twofold increase in the number of disabled people over the past 13 years;
- an increase in the share of migrants, including illegal ones, whose relations with local population often develop as conflictual, and at times downright hostile.

Meanwhile, according to various estimates, from 1.5 to 6 million illegal migrants currently live in Russia, whose situation is often simply unbearable. Their unresolved problems pose a direct and real threat to social and political stability in our country.

As a result, the consequences of the demographic crisis for our country look very alarming.

First. Russia owns 13% of the world's territory, but our share of the Earth's population may decrease to 1% by 2050.

But even at the beginning of the twentieth century, residents Russian Empire constituted 8% of the world population.

Second. Three quarters of the territory of our country today are actually uninhabited spaces.

There are 13 thousand settlements in the country without inhabitants and almost the same number where less than 10 people live.

The potential danger of the current demographic situation is that in the next two decades the world's population will increase by almost 1.5 times. According to calculations on earth by 2075. 9 billion people will live. Moreover, population growth (demographic explosion) is observed in countries with underdeveloped economies, where there is a lack of education and qualifications. And in countries where measures are being taken to suppress a sharp increase in numbers, there is a different problem - an aging population (for example, China).

In Russia, the demographic situation is the opposite of the global one. There is a population decline. Now Russia has begun to lose 1 million people annually. These figures indicate, taking into account the significant reduction in life expectancy, the extinction of Russians. In our country, population growth according to statistics is negative, i.e. population decline. The solution is seen in raising the standard of living of Russians and the state addressing the demographic problem.

The exceptional difficulty of solving population problems in modern world is that due to the inertia of demographic processes, the longer the solution to these problems is postponed, the greater the scale they acquire.

This situation is particularly dangerous for the border regions in the east of the country, where the population density in the adjacent regions of neighboring states is 100 or more times higher than the Russian population density. This means that we risk simply losing these territories.

According to Rosstat, the permanent population of the Russian Federation as of May 1, 2010 amounted to 141.9 million people and since the beginning of the year decreased by 41.7 thousand people, or by 0.03% (at the corresponding date of the previous year there was a population decrease of 50.4 thousand people, or 0.04%). Natural population decline in January-April 2010 decreased compared to the corresponding period in 2009. by 24.2 thousand people. Migration growth of 61.2% compensated for the numerical losses of the population.

The current demographic situation in Russia is determined by three main problems.

The first problem is that at the end of the twentieth century, Russia entered a long period of depopulation (population decline): the natural population decline amounted to 10.4 million people, and the total losses as a result of partial migration compensation amounted to 4.85 million people. Moreover, the process of population decline is gaining increasing speed every year, which makes Russia one of the “leaders” among states with a declining population.

The second problem is related to the fact that depopulation is caused not by opportunistic temporary factors, but by fundamental long-term processes, so hopes for an automatic exit from it as the socio-economic situation improves are groundless. Even at the turn of the 1970s, the country developed such parameters of population reproduction that the generations of children were smaller than the generation of parents. To date, parental generations are replaced by children by only 60%.

The third problem is determined by the fact that the development of depopulation in Russia has significant differences from developed European countries with a declining population. It is formed, on the one hand, as a result of the birth rate, which is low even compared to these countries: 1.35 (estimate of the total fertility rate for 2010) in Russia and 1.88 in France, 1.80 in Norway, 1.73 in The Netherlands, 1.71 in the UK, 1.65 in Sweden. These losses are determined by mortality rates that have no analogues in the European region: at the beginning of the 21st century, Russia lags behind the dozens of most developed countries in the world (USA, Belgium, Canada, Norway, etc.) in life expectancy by 15-19 years for men and by 7- 12 years for women.

None of the domestic and foreign forecasts made by research teams or official structures provides for the possibility of exiting depopulation in the current demographic conditions. If the current level of birth and death rates is maintained and there is no migration increase, the population of Russia by the beginning of 2025 will be 122.0 million people, having decreased by 21.4 million people compared to the beginning of 2005.

In fact, demographic dynamics in Russia may look much worse, since in the absence of a targeted demographic policy, it is very likely that mortality will not stabilize, but will continue to rise (to the levels of life expectancy for men 51.5 years, women 65.4 years) and at the same time there will be gradual transition to a one-child family model (up to a total fertility rate of 1.18). In this case, the population of Russia by the beginning of 2025 will be 113.9 million people, having decreased by 29.5 million people compared to the beginning of 2005. Compared to the option of maintaining current levels of fertility and mortality, the country’s population by the end of the first quarter of the 21st century will be 8.1 million less. At the same time, the main differences will appear after 2015.

The rationale for the need for demographic growth in Russia can be reduced to four main aspects: geopolitical, economic, social and humanitarian.

Geopolitical aspect. Russia has enormous natural resources, it is considered to be one-fifth of the world's resource reserves, their forecast reserves are estimated at 140 trillion. US dollars. At the current level of GDP, these resources will last for 300-350 years, and with a doubling of GDP - for more than 200 years.

The presence of natural resources in Russia is its plus. But the placement of these resources in the eastern and northern regions, most of which are poorly developed, and significant areas are not suitable for long-term residence of the population, is its disadvantage. Preservation natural resources in the Asian part of the country, their use by current generations, as well as those who will live in 50-100 or more years, requires maintaining a certain level of population or development of these territories. At the same time, the demographic potential of the central part of the country has been significantly undermined and does not have any significant resettlement resources.

In the context of growing globalization, Russia cannot but take into account the changes and trends that are taking place in the world community. First of all, the share of countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and a number of other regions in the world's population is increasing. Russia, with its vast, poorly developed spaces, finds itself in a very disadvantageous position, since in the south and east it borders on states with a high density of rapidly growing populations. More than 100 million people live in the regions of China bordering the south of the Far East alone.

The second region of demographic pressure on Russia is located outside its southern borders. A powerful community of Islamic states is being formed there. By the middle of the 21st century, in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, other Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey, the population will exceed one billion people, and in the last three states it will exceed the number of residents of Russia. The concentration of millions of unemployed armies in these countries, and in the context of the Islamization of the former Soviet republics, can significantly change the geopolitical situation and cause a powerful migration expansion, to which Russia will have to respond in accordance with international norms and obligations.

Along the entire perimeter of the state, starting from the Sakhalin region and ending with the Kaliningrad enclave, neighbors lay claim to Russian territories. It is obvious that border areas are more tempting the less fortified they are and the more populated by Russian citizens. This is especially true of the Far Eastern and partially Siberian borders, which were intensively populated in the past and are now losing their population. If the share of the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts in 1989 was 19.7% of the total population of the country, then by the beginning of 2004 it had dropped to 18.4%. Now, for example, on Far East there are 17% fewer people living than in 1989 (in Russia as a whole - by 2%).

The preservation of Russia's territorial integrity will depend, first of all, on its defense potential, which must ensure an adequate response to all military threats, both local and global. By the end of the first decade of the 21st century, manning the armed forces is one of the most difficult tasks. After 2006, a sharp reduction in the number of 18-year-old young people - potential conscripts for military service - began by halving over the next 10 years from 1.3 million to 644 thousand. By the beginning of 2025, their number will be 760 thousand people. At the same time, it must be borne in mind that the same age groups are in demand not only from the armed forces, but also from law enforcement agencies, the economy, education, culture, etc.

The economic aspects of demographic growth in Russia are determined, first of all, by the need for a working-age population. Based on the postulate of doubling GDP per decade, over the five-year period the growth rate should be 1.416, in other words, the average annual rate should be no lower than 7%. In 2003-2004 growth rates were 6.8% and 6.3%, although nothing happened in the structure of the economy or in technical equipment, only energy prices increased. In countries with characteristics similar to Russia, at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, the average annual rate of increase in labor productivity did not exceed 5%. This is the maximum realistic level for Russia in the near future. If labor productivity in the Russian economy grows at this rate in the next 6-7 years, then in order to ensure an increase in GDP by the required 7.2%, the number of employed people must increase annually by 2%.

Analysis of forecast options shows that with a further increase in negative trends in fertility and mortality, the number of economically active population by 2015 will decrease by 10.6 million people compared to 2005. Five years from 2010 to 2015 will be a landslide in terms of the formation of the country’s labor potential. With such dynamics in the size of the economically active population, doubling GDP over a decade seems very problematic.

The social and humanitarian aspects of demographic dynamics are due to the fact that growing population losses as a result of excess mortality are the flip side of the deteriorating quality of the population. The increase in the number and expansion of the composition of marginal groups of the population, on the one hand, and the increase, predominantly among them, in the risk of mortality from preventable causes, on the other, are the main source of the increase in mortality in modern Russia. We are talking about returning to the agenda health problems characteristic of developing countries, which Russia successfully (reduced to a minimum) solved during the Soviet period, problems associated with unsanitary conditions, malnutrition, lack of basic medical care, and low education.

Nadezhda Khvylya-Olinter - expert of the Center for Scientific political thought and ideology, Ph.D. sociol. Sci.

About the publication : The article examines the demographic state of Russia based on statistical data. The emphasis is on analyzing population changes, life expectancy dynamics, and changes in the age structure in Russian sociocultural conditions.

For several decades, Russia has been experiencing a pronounced demographic crisis, which is understood as a sharp decrease in population.

In recent years, the situation has stabilized somewhat and, according to official statements, the deterioration of demographic indicators has stopped. However, for now we may not be talking about a way out of the crisis, but only about changing some indicators for the better relative to the deterioration of previous years.

Rice. 1. Natural population growth in Russia.

In order to understand what the demographic state of the country is, it is necessary to describe the main demographic processes: changes in population (mortality, birth rate, natural increase), dynamics of life expectancy, changes in the age structure.

In the last decade, the country lost from 0.5 million to 1 million people annually - this is the worst indicator among the developed countries of the world. In terms of per 100 thousand people, there are twice as many deaths in Russia as in the USA or Europe. In terms of the scale of population decline, we have long been in first place in the world, which indicates not just a crisis, but an emergency situation.

In 2013, fertility and mortality rates improved and, for the first time since 1991, the country achieved population growth.

Rice. 2. Natural population growth/decrease in terms of 1 thousand people.

Russia is characterized by a high mortality rate among people of working age (of the total number of deaths, almost a third are people in this category). Mortality from cardiovascular diseases, accounting for 55% of mortality from all causes, in Russia is approximately 3 to 4 times higher than in Europe. Among the causes of death in working age, approximately a third are due to external causes - poisoning, suicide, murder, road accidents, etc.

An important characteristic of the demographic state is birth rate. Today it is already clear that almost all over the world there is a downward trend in the birth rate, and although the total fertility rate (TFR) in Russia is growing, it remains one of the lowest on the planet. A coefficient equal to 2 ensures population reproduction, more than 2.15 contributes to the growth of its population. Before M. Gorbachev came to power, the TFR remained at a level that ensured reproduction, but since 1987 it began to fall sharply. The lowest TFR was observed in 1999 (1.16) - the result of the Yeltsin era. According to Rosstat in 2012, this coefficient in Russia was already 1.61. According to UN estimates, it is 2.36 in the world, but mainly thanks to the countries of the African region. Simple population reproduction is no longer enough for Russia, and a much higher birth rate is needed. According to experts, to overcome the demographic crisis, the TFR must be at least 3.5.

How likely is it that population growth in Russia will continue? Forecasts show that out of 36 scenarios in terms of population growth (taking into account migration), only nine turned out to be positive, allowing us to count on growth to 145 million people or more. Only two of them allow for the possibility of growing to over 150 million people (they combine high birth rates and life expectancy with a very high level of migration). According to 12 scenarios, the population will stabilize between 140 and 145 million, and 15 forecasts are pessimistic, showing a drop in the number of Russian citizens below 140 million, and at worst, up to 128 million people.

Only one forecast out of four is positive. However, even these are based on migration growth; they cannot be called ultimately winning, since high migration changes the ethnic composition of the population. Migration growth in the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation is considered as a factor in improving the demographic situation - it is necessary to “attract migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration,” and by 2025 it is expected to “ensure migration growth at the level of more than 300 thousand people annually.”

Indeed, the permanent population of the Russian Federation increased in 2013, largely due to migration.

Rice. 3. Dynamics of the population of the Russian Federation.

There are other forecasts, for example, from the UN Population Division or the US Bureau of Census - according to them, the population of Russia will continue to decline, and the aging of the nation and the decline in the working-age population will increase.

Obviously, the probability of this or that scenario is not random, this is not a lottery, and the result depends on the skill of management decisions. Fidelity to the principles of the ongoing demographic policy increases the chances of the implementation of positive scenarios. An incorrectly chosen strategy, on the contrary, will lead to a decrease in population.

An important aspect of the analysis of population dynamics is ethnic. Population decline occurs in regions with a predominantly Russian population. The leaders in terms of positive demographic indicators are the national republics with a low share of the Russian population, as well as the Tyumen region and Moscow (thanks to immigration and the high standard of living of citizens). Regions with a large share of ethnic Russians show a decrease in natural population decline.

The birth rate greatly exceeds the death rate in nine subjects with a minimal share of the ethnically Russian population (from 0.7% to 31%), the leaders are the republics of the North Caucasus. Consequently, the demographic crisis is ethnically selective. The decline of the Russian population continues, which has decreased by more than 8 million people since 1989.

In terms of another indicator, life expectancy, Russia is increasingly lagging behind economically developed countries: in 2013, life expectancy in the Russian Federation was 66.05 years. In the global ranking, our country is in 129th place, and among the countries of the post-Soviet space, a more positive situation is observed in Azerbaijan (66.3), Kazakhstan (67.35), Ukraine (68.1), Turkmenistan (68.35), Kyrgyzstan ( 68.9), Belarus (70.2), Armenia (72.4) and Georgia (76.55). The dynamics of life expectancy in the Russian Federation is positive, but, combined with low birth rates, the demographic effect will be negative, since the aging process of the nation will ultimately intensify.

An analysis of the dynamics of the total population will not be complete without assessing its age structure.

The population is divided into three groups: working age, pre-working age and those who have completed their working career. The pre-labor cohort includes citizens under the age of 19, the economically active group - from 20 to 64 years, and the post-labor cohort - from 65 years and older. It is clear that the period of both the beginning and end of work depends on various reasons, and the division given is conditional.
Until the last decade of the twentieth century, there was an increase in the economically active age population, both absolute and relative (the share of people aged 20 to 64 years in the total population).

Population aged 20–64 years, million people

Proportion of population aged 20–64 years in total population

Rice. 4. Size and share of the working age population (from 20 to 64 years old) from 1965 to 2012.

With the birth rate increasing in the last few years, should we expect an increase in the economically active population? Apparently not, since the recorded growth is not enough to reproduce this group, and the share of the population of pre-working age is rapidly decreasing. Consequently, there will be no increase in the working population group in the near future.

Population aged 0–19 years, million people

Proportion of population aged 0–19 years in total population

Rice. 5. Number and share of the population of pre-working age (up to 20 years) from 1965 to 2012.

With such dynamics, largely due to the increase in life expectancy, there is an increase in the proportion of elderly people. According to forecasts, by 2016 the number of citizens under 18 years of age in the Russian Federation may reach 25.3 million people.

Rice. 6. Number and share of the elderly population (65 years and older) from 1965 to 2012.

The identified decline in the elderly population is transitory, since people who will soon reach post-working age were born in the late 40s - 50s of the twentieth century, and during these years there was a surge in the birth rate. Consequently, we should expect not a decrease in the proportion of the elderly population, but an increase. If today the share of elderly people in the total population is approximately 13%, then by 2025 it is projected to increase to 18%.

Population aging is observed not only in our country - it is a multi-country trend characteristic of states with low birth rates. According to UN estimates, Russia is in 30th place among 228 countries in terms of the aging index (the ratio of the number of people over 60 to the number of children under 15). But the fact that the Russian Federation looks “young” compared to most European countries is largely due to the fact that in comparison with these countries we have a lower life expectancy.

In addition, migration sentiment is strong in Russia - in 2013, a record was recorded for the number of Russians wishing to go abroad. Compared to the crisis year of 2009, when 13% of respondents had similar thoughts, the number of such respondents increased by 1.7 times.
The migration outflow of the population from Russia is growing again, despite the fact that migration growth is ahead of it and ensures a positive balance.

Rice. 7. Migration balance of the Russian Federation (Rosstat data).

Is the quality of the incoming and outgoing populations equal? Most likely no. A positive migration balance is observed with the former Soviet republics. This direction of migration is poorly controlled and a large proportion of arrivals are people with low professional qualifications. We emphasize that we are talking about a general characteristic. There is no doubt that among those coming there are people worthy of respect who were forced for various reasons (political, family and others) to move to Russia.

The emigration flow is represented largely by the intelligentsia, qualified specialists and students. Consequently, thanks to migration, the structure of the population changes, the gene pool deteriorates, and social potential decreases.

To regulate the demographic situation, you need to understand what factors what are the influences on it and what are they? causes current state. The state, implementing targeted demographic policy, influences the demographic process. Therefore, it is necessary to identify factors that cause a positive response. Such factors were found as a result of analytical research, their influence on the demographic situation is confirmed by historical examples and statistically.

The demographic behavior of a person is determined, on the one hand, biologically, on the other - ideologically and spiritually. It is stable and weakly susceptible to correction under external influences. This is a special form of behavior that develops over a long period of time and over many generations. It is based on mentality, religion, and cultural traditions. Therefore, the possibility of emergency government intervention in this area seems doubtful.

There is a point of view that explains that the decline in the birth rate in Russia is caused by material instability. But studies show that the role of this factor is exaggerated, and there is no correlation between fertility and material well-being. Moreover, it has been proven that the material factor can act on human reproductive behavior in inverse proportion - the Soviet psychologist V.V. Boyko and the American publicist P. Buchanan wrote about this, for example. Consequently, using measures of material support for fertility, without activating ideological and spiritual principles, it is impossible to obtain a lasting result.

The reason for the demographic catastrophe is that Russians do not understand what country they live in, what its values and highest ideas are, what global strategy development and why there was a rejection of the traditions of their ancestors. This situation plunges the population into a state of psychological discomfort, which affects demographic behavior. In addition, family and reproductive attitudes are a stable component of the mentality of a nation, and the current demographic crisis indicates that the current reality contradicts the values embedded in the mentality.

What risks does the current demographic state of Russia entail?

Firstly, a decrease in the number of people of working age, coupled with an increase in the number of pensioners and children, will lead to a strong increase in the demographic burden. Over the past decade, demographers have noted the effect of the “demographic dividend,” when, while the total population is declining, there is an increase in the number of people of working age. But this stage is short-lived and is already being replaced by a situation in which the decline of the working-age population becomes rapid and inevitable.

Secondly, a reduction in the number of people of reproductive age will affect both the birth rate and marriage rates, which in the future will worsen the demographic crisis.

Third, growing labor shortage. Adaptive mechanisms must be developed today, otherwise, with the widespread management approach, there is a high probability of an economic crisis.

Fourth, a reduction in the share of the Russian population in the national republics, which, combined with a high level of migration, creates threats national security: the connecting role of the Russian people is lost, regions appear that do not identify themselves with Russia, ties between peoples in the space of Russian civilization are severed.

Fifthly, the reduction in the number of youth will entail problems in the vocational education system, and then in the field of formation of labor resources, reproduction of the country’s professional and intellectual potential.

At sixth Projects undertaken on the Western model to create juvenile justice in Russia and introduce gender education in schools will entail the destruction of the traditional family model and will aggravate the demographic crisis.

Seventh, with the long-term formation of negative demographic attitudes in the future, there is a likelihood of them taking root at the mental level. If this happens, then the further fight against the extinction of the country will become almost hopeless.

Solving the demographic problem should not be reduced to using the practices of developed countries, a weak attempt to promote family values and material incentives for the birth rate. This problem requires an integrated approach, otherwise the results, if any, will be short-term.

The work “State Policy for Leading Russia Out of the Demographic Crisis” provides a four-factor model of the demographic situation in the country. It includes the material factor, the ideological and spiritual state of society, civilizational identity Russian society and the role of public policy. In first place is the factor of the “ideological and spiritual state” of society, which also contains indicators of the socio-psychological state. On the second is the factor of “national (civilizational) identity”, in the Russian case - Russian identity. It reflects the degree of comfort of the living environment, which affects reproduction. The third is the “role of public policy” factor, which is applicable to the previous two factors. The material factor (housing, food, income, medicine) occupies only fourth place in this model.

This implies the priority of efforts. State demographic policy should be pursued in the following areas.
Firstly, overcoming ideological and spiritual degradation (increasing the role of traditional religions, popularizing traditional values).
Secondly, the restoration of national identity (the revival of the state-forming potential of the Russian people, overcoming negative consequences collapse of the USSR).

Thirdly, improving the quality of public policy in general and improving the social and material security of citizens.
As for measures of material support for fertility, it is important that the population perceives them as significant and consistent assistance, and not as a one-time and insignificant payment in the scale of a family’s life.

The demographic state reflects civilizational development. The destruction of the foundations of Russian civilization inevitably worsens the demographic situation. This is the main reason for the crisis; therefore, first of all, in this field we need to look for ways to overcome depopulation.

An integrated approach to the formation of public policy in the field of demography will not provide quick, but sustainable results. Understanding the nature of the crisis, its causes and mechanisms makes it possible to build effective public policy. The goal is obvious - to prevent a demographic catastrophe, preserve the country and restore its greatness. In case of demographic success, Russia will become a shining example of the reviving influence of ideological and spiritual principles on the nation. Around an ideology based on traditional culture, it is possible to unite the Slavic peoples, as well as the peoples of other countries experiencing demographic problems.

NOTES

The expected average number of children born to one woman over her entire life, maintaining the current level of fertility.

Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025. Approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of October 9, 2007 No. 1351.

A quantitative characteristic of the age structure of the population, showing the burden on society of the disabled population.

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State policy of leading Russia out of the demographic crisis / Monograph. V.I. Yakunin, S.S. Sulakshin, V.E. Bagdasaryan and others. Under the general editorship of S.S. Sulakshina. 2nd ed. - M.: ZAO Publishing House “Economy”, Scientific Expert, 2007.
Kalabekov I.G. Russian reforms in figures and facts. Moscow, 2010.
Sulakshin S.S., Kravchenko L.I. Demographic situation in Russia. Proceedings of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology. Vol. No. 4, May 2014. M.: Science and Politics, 2014. 32 p.